When the Orioles began the season 7-0, they set fans' expectations high for 2016 right out of the gate. Then a month later, they matched that seven-game winning streak with another as the team surged to a 23-12 record on May 14. A division title or playoff berth would be the only thing to satisfy Charm City this season.
As with any team playing 162 games, the Birds have cooled. They've matched their season-high losing streak, three games, are 2-3 on their current road trip and have lost six of their last ten. They also just became the only team in baseball history to strikeout 18 times or more in back-to-back games. Number nine hitter Hyun Soo Kim, who I wrote should be getting more playing time in my column last week, was the only Orioles hitter who didn't record a strikeout in last night's loss. He and Jonathan Schoop were the only O's who didn't fan at least twice. The Orioles went 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position and left 12 men on base as a team.
So what is the Birds' true identity? Are they that team that put together two seven-game winning streaks? Or the club who has struggled so mightily over the last few games?
Despite their 37 strikeouts in the last two games, the Orioles offense has Major League Baseball's eighth-highest strikeout percentage (22.6), just a tick higher than their rate last season (22.2) and in their 96-win season in 2014 (21.0). They're in the top third of the league in team batting average (.260) and have recorded that total with an .303 BABIP, which suggests that we shouldn't see much decline in that total. Advanced statistics wOBA, which measures overall offensive value based on values of each offensive event, and wRC+, which quantifies total offensive value and measures it by runs, have the O's bats ranking sixth (.332) and seventh (107) respectively in baseball. In short, the Orioles offense is every bit as scary as we previously thought it would be.
It's worth noting, though, that the O's rely more on the home run this season than just about every team: 54.59 percent of their runs have come from the longball, only the Mets scoring a higher percentage of runs on homers. That total is higher than it's been for the Orioles in each of the last four seasons. I didn't think it was possible to see an increase in their dependence on homers.
Baltimore is 5-5 in one-run games, has a plus-22 run differential and has won two of their three extra-inning contests. There's nothing fluky about their .591 winning percentage.
From a pitching perspective, Orioles starters have a 4.39 ERA, but a 3.97 FIP this season. Because the Orioles have had such strong defenses in recent seasons, we've seen their starter's out-perform their FIP and mask some of their inefficiencies. That's not the case this season as the Birds rotation is allowing less than a homer per nine innings with 7.20 strikeouts per nine.
Their bullpen has also had success keeping the ball in the ballpark (0.70 HR/9) and stranding runners with the second-highest left on-base percentage in baseball (83.2 percent). These ground ball-inducing arms have a 2.60 ERA as a team, outperforming their FIP (3.44) through 142 innings. They're also a bit more strikeout happy than the O's rotation with a 8.18 K/9.
While the Orioles have always prided themselves on power offense and solid defense, they've been below average with the glove this season. They rank 22nd according to DRS (-12) and committed four errors last night. Their infield has been above average, which has helped their pitching staff tremendously, but the outfield defense has been worth -19 DRS and posted a -10.7 UZR (30th and 28th in baseball, respectively).
So what is the Orioles' identity? Well, they're a power-hitting offense that is cold at the moment. Like most power-hitting teams, they tend to strikeout a lot. The good news is their starting pitching staff has exceeded early season expectations, their bullpen is dominant and infield defense will help any pitcher that can force ground balls. The O's are going to be good this season, but they'll have some frustrating losses along the way. Right now they're in a rut, but a few longballs can easily turn this thing around.
Zach Wilt blogs about the Orioles at Baltimore Sports Report. Follow him on Twitter: @zach_wilt. His views appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our pages. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.
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