Two weeks from today the Orioles could wind up with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. But the odds of that are real, real low. On Dec. 6 at the Winter Meetings baseball will hold the first-ever draft lottery. It will take place that Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. ET and be televised by MLB Network.

The 18 teams that did not make the playoffs all have a shot at getting the No. 1 pick and in fact, the top six picks in the draft will be determined by the lottery. The teams that lost the most last year, Washington (55-107), Oakland (60-102) and Pittsburgh (62-100) all are listed at a percentage of 16.5 to gain the No. 1 pick. Cincinnati is next at 13.2 percent with Kansas City at 10.0 percent via the lottery.

The Orioles are listed 17^th at 0.36 percent to get the top pick. So, we’re saying’ there’s a chance. It’s just not a very good one at all, less than one half of one percent. The Orioles are 17^th because they had the second-best record at 83-79 behind Milwaukee (86-76) among non-playoff teams.

The 12 clubs that made the MLB postseason will select between 19 and 30 in round one. If the O’s don’t beat the odds and get one of those top six selections, they would be expected to pick 17^th in round one. The selections for picks No. 7-18 will go in reverse order of the standings after the top six get chosen via the lottery. The O’s have not picked 17^th or lower since taking high school lefty DL Hall No. 21 in the opening round of the 2017 draft.

The last four years – since selecting Adley Rutschman No. 1 overall in 2019 – Baltimore has selected first, second, fifth and first.  

Once he finally got on the field this past season in June, O’s outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad was tearing it up at Single-A Delmarva, batting .463 in 22 games. He didn’t produce similar numbers when he moved up to High-A Aberdeen – yes, that would have been hard to do – but had another great run in the Arizona Fall League.

Kjerstad won the Joe Black MVP Award in the AFL, putting him in the same company as previous winners such as Nolan Arenado (2011), Kris Bryant (2013) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (2017). And Kjerstad’s strong AFL showing could mean he will begin the 2023 season with Double-A Bowie and not return to Aberdeen.

“I would say that would be an intelligent guess,” O’s director of player development Matt Blood said recently about Kjerstad moving up to begin next season.

In 43 games with the IronBirds in the regular season, he batted .233/.312/.362 with a .674 OPS, but his bat heated up in the final games of the season, and that carried over both into the South Atlantic League playoffs and into AFL play.

In 22 games in Arizona, Kjerstad, taken second overall by the Orioles in the 2020 MLB Draft, hit .357/.385/.622 with a 1.007 OPS, nine doubles, a triple, five homers and 17 RBIs. He led the AFL in hits (35), doubles, extra-base hits and total bases (61). He tied for third in homers and RBIs, and was sixth in OPS.

Today taking another look today at a few stories we discussed in this space recently.

Such as this one about catcher Adley Rutschman. The last Oriole to win the American League Rookie of the Year award was Gregg Olson in 1989. Earlier this week Rutschman was a finalist for the AL ROY, but Seattle's Julio Rodríguez took home the hardware.

The rookie from Baltimore still had a pretty big year and earned a full year of service time for 2022 by virtue of his second-place finish.

Rutschman's year was strong enough to put him in select company. He produced the fourth-highest wRC+ among rookie catchers since 1961:

165 – Carlton Fisk, 1972
150 – Mike Piazza, 1993
134 – Buster Posey, 2010
133 – Adley Rutschman, 2022

If it feels like he’s been in the Orioles organization for a while, he has. But lefty Drew Rom, added to the 40-man roster this week, for now is still just 22. He turns 23 Dec. 15 and will head to spring training next February in Sarasota, knowing it’s the season when he might make his major league debut.

During a Zoom call this week he told reporters he has a few specific goals this winter, to include trying to add velocity while honing his changeup.

"Maybe searching for some velo, but also fine tuning what I am already excelling with," he said of his winter workout plans.

The Orioles' previous front office selected Rom in the fourth round of the 2018 draft (No. 115 overall) from a high school in Fort Thomas, Ky., just south of Cincinnati. He ranks at No. 18 on the club’s top 30 list according to Baseball America and No. 19 via MLBPipeline.com.

In 2022 he pitched in 19 games with Double-A Bowie and made seven starts late in the year for Triple-A Norfolk, and he seems likely to begin the 2023 season in the Tides rotation.

With the Orioles in the market for starting pitching and possibly poised to add one or more hurlers from the free agent ranks, today we’ll take a look at two more possibilities.

To be clear, these are just some stats and notes on these pitchers and not my speculation - or anyone’s, for that matter - in terms of the Orioles' interest level in these pitchers. As you know, they keep such information very close to the vest.

MLBTradeRumors.com has ranked nine pitchers among its top 20 free agents for this winter. Here they are, listed by the ranking and also the projected contract for each.

* No. 6 lefty Carlos Rodón – five years, $140 million

* No. 7 right-hander Jacob deGrom – three years, $135 million

Doing the math is pretty easy. Interpreting what it all means can be more challenging. But we do know the sport of baseball has gravitated toward placing increased value on pitchers with big strikeout totals. And while we used to be most enamored with raw strikeout totals, now stats like strikeout percentage might tell us a bit more.

Strikeout percentage is easy to get to. Simply divide the number of batters a pitcher strikes out by the total batters he faced. A pitcher that fanned 30 of 90 batters faced has a strikeout percentage of 33.3.

This year on the O’s farm, using a standard of 50 innings pitched for the year, the Orioles had seven minor league pitchers produce a strikeout percentage of 30 or above. Four of them are now on the 40-man roster and two were just added this week.

The list of seven:

36.6 – DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez

Considering he walked off the mound with an injury in the sixth inning of a Triple-A game with Norfolk on June 1, returning to pitch this past season in September was big for the sport’s highest-rated pitching prospect, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.

While the Orioles didn’t get him a late-year start in Baltimore to make his MLB debut, he did make one rehab outing for high Single-A Aberdeen and two for Double-A Bowie before ending his year with three starts and pitching to an ERA of 2.63 at Triple-A.

It was nice to get to prove he was over the Grade 2 right lat strain and that he was healthy again. Today, on an Orioles zoom call with local media on his 23rd birthday, Rodriguez talked about being added to the club’s 40-man roster this week. He could start next season in the Orioles' opening day rotation.

“Obviously, it’s honor to get put on anybody’s 40-man, especially ours,” Rodriguez said this afternoon. “So, pretty excited, pretty pumped up for it. Can’t wait for spring training. And really just looking forward to what this year has in store. Just getting back out there and throwing the baseball.”

In 17 starts in 2022, he went 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA, missing time between June 1 and Sept. 1 with the injury. Over a combined 75 2/3 innings he walked 28, fanned 109, posted an 0.99 WHIP and allowed a .176 batting average against. In 14 starts at Triple-A only, he went 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA and was a postseason International League All-Star.

The Orioles Adley Rutschman did not win the AL Rookie of the Year award. That was expected. Manager Brandon Hyde did not win the Manager of the Year award, which went to Cleveland's Terry Francona.

That was probably a bit less expected but certainly Francona was the favorite heading into last night. To have five of the 30 votes not place Hyde among the top three is a bit unexpected.

But Hyde was a reasonably close second losing out to Francona in points by 112-79. Francona got 17 first-place votes and Hyde got nine. 

So, he fell short last night. But for me, I think there are many reasons that Hyde has been and will continue to be the right manager for the Orioles. And ranking high among them in my opinion is his ability to work well with and get a lot of out of young players.

That fits so well with a rebuilding organization. Hyde seems to have an ability to get close with his players yet maintain a management relationship. He is open and honest with them, telling them what they need to hear, not what they want to hear.

The Orioles added five players today to their 40-man roster. By adding these players, they now cannot be taken by another organization in the upcoming Dec. 7 Rule 5 draft. And they will all report to major league spring training in Sarasota, Fla. in February.

They added two of their three top pitching prospects in right-handers Grayson Rodriguez and Seth Johnson along with lefty Drew Rom, right-hander Noah Denoyer and shortstop Joey Ortiz.

At 34 players this morning, the Orioles' 40-man roster now holds 39 players.

Rodriguez is the Orioles No. 2 prospect behind only Gunnar Henderson and is rated as the No. 4 national prospect in top 100s by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com.

In 17 starts this year, he went 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA, missing time between June 1 and Sept. 1 with a Grade 2 right lat strain. He left his start early June 1 with Triple-A Norfolk and returned three months later to make three rehab starts between high-A Aberdeen and Double-A Bowie before returning to end the year with Norfolk.

He wasn’t named the American League Rookie of the Year last night. The Orioles' Adley Rutschman finished second to Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez. But there is no shame in that, and it doesn’t diminish from the strong rookie year he had or what is expected for his future.

And that is simply, greatness, so the expectations, as always for Rutschman, are high. He could be the face of this franchise for many years to come.

Rutschman did get one first-place vote and Rodriguez got 29 of 30 to easily win with 148 points to 68 for Rutschman and 44 for Cleveland’s Steven Kwan, once an Oregon State teammate of Adley.

Rutschman, over 113 games, batted .254/.362/.445/.807 with 70 runs, 35 doubles, one triple, 13 homers and 42 RBIs. After his call to the majors on May 21, the Orioles went 67-55. He produced 18 Defensive Runs Saved, which was second among MLB catchers and tied for eighth in the majors.

Among FanGraphs.com’s Wins Above Replacement, Rutschman produced 5.3 WAR and so did Rodriguez with Kwan at 4.4. In the baseball-reference WAR version, Rodriguez produced 6.2 with Kwan at 5.5 and Rutschman 5.2. But Rutschman’s projected WAR over 162 games was 7.5.

The baseball free agent market is underway. And the Orioles' Mike Elias told my colleague Roch Kubatko that the market could move swiftly this winter. Maybe some things will even heat up before the Winter Meetings early next month.

The Orioles are targeting pitching and hitting via both free agency and possibly trade routes also.

"I think this is going to be a very competitive market for players,” he said. “I think there’s a lot of teams out there that are looking to get better. People feel good about the health of the industry and I expect this will be a pretty active and maybe fast free agent market,” said Elias.

So, without any knowledge of how much money or far the Orioles are willing to go after free agent pitchers, we’ll take a look at a few of them over the next few weeks in this space. Today we start with three right-handers, who all pitched in New York in 2022.

* RHP Taijuan Walker: He is ranked as the No. 11 free agent via ESPN and projected to get four years at $60 million. MLBTradeRumors.com lists him at No. 16 and predicts a four-year deal for $52 million.

Sure, the Orioles will be looking for a top-end rotation pitcher this winter, and maybe they actually add that guy or guys through free agency or via a trade.

But their rotation hopes for 2023 also would include seeing two young pitchers that took steps forward last season building on that. Those pitchers are right-handers Dean Kremer, who went 8-7 with a 3.23 ERA, and Kyle Bradish, who was 4-7 with a 4.90 ERA.

While these young pitchers completed their development, or are doing so on the Orioles watch, they both came in trades. All teams want to draft and develop young pitching, but you are happy to get it anywhere you can.

These pitchers did some encouraging things, especially later in the year, in 2022. Like shutting down the eventual World Series champion Houston Astros on back-to-back nights at Camden Yards on Sept. 22-23.

They combined to throw 17 2/3 scoreless innings with two walks and 16 strikeouts combined. During that series, former Oriole Trey Mancini was among those impressed by the Baltimore right-handers, and he talked to me about the pitchers in the visiting clubhouse at Oriole Park.

Baseball’s free agency period has begun. As of 5 p.m. yesterday, teams could pursue free agents that were not their own. The offers can now be made, the rumors will heat up and some signings should start to trickle in of players changing teams.

Will the Orioles be active? Quite possibly and according to ESPN, quite probably.

In Jeff Passan’s offseason preview story there was this excerpt:

Which teams are most likely to go really big this winter?

Certainly, this list could change, said Passan, depending on market dynamics and the whims of ownership, but the most active teams this winter, according to sources, are expected to be:

Former high draft picks of the Houston Astros were coming and going from the Orioles roster on Wednesday. The club did not pick up the 2023 team option on pitcher Jordan Lyles, taken No. 38 overall in 2008. But later in the day they added via waivers outfielder Daz Cameron, taken No. 37 overall by Houston in the 2015 MLB Draft.

So, the Orioles, at least for now, are parting ways with Lyles, who becomes a free agent. That means he is free to sign with any team including the Orioles, who seem to have interest but at a lower price than $11 million for next season.

On the plus side, Lyles finished 14^th in the American League in innings with 179 and he lowered his homer rate from 1.9 the previous year to 1.3. He was good in the expanded Oriole Park, going 5-3 with a 3.47 in home games and the Orioles went 17-15 in his 32 starts. He also led the club throwing 100 pitches or more 11 times, most by an O’s starter since 2018. He provided outstanding leadership for the young pitchers and enjoyed a role where he mentored that group. He led the club with 13 quality starts and the Orioles went 9-4 in those games.

He wanted to come back.

“I would love to be back here,” Lyles said during the season’s final days. “To see what we’ve done in the last calendar year as an organization, from what was expected of us coming into the season, and the transition to be where we are right now, it’s pretty special. I enjoy the guys. Hyder (Brandon Hyde) has been amazing. Definitely Manager of the Year in my eyes. A good clubhouse. Everything is positive here. I would love to come back.”

At just 32, and five years removed from a five-season major league career, Cody Asche became the Orioles' 10^th coach this week. On Tuesday when the staff for 2023 was officially announced, he was the only new addition, hired as offensive strategy coach.

Asche joined the Baltimore organization in 2022 as an upper-level hitting coordinator on the farm. He began his pro coaching career in 2021 as the hitting coach for the Clearwater Threshers, the Low-A affiliate of the Phillies. He played parts of five seasons with the Phillies (2013-16) and White Sox (2017).

He said his role for next season is still being completely defined.

“Right now the way I see it, I will be an asset to (co-hitting coaches Ryan) Fuller and Borgs (Matt Borgschulte), hopefully an asset to Brandon (Hyde) and Fredi (González) in-game-wise. Have contact with the front office and the analysts and just really kind of be hopefully a jack of all trades and just be there to support and help our hitters get better.

“I just feel really fortunate and am excited that the front office believes in me and trusts me to be around their major league assets. And they trust me to help our team get better.”

For young Jackson Holliday, a lot was expected and a lot was delivered. The player the Orioles took No. 1 overall in the 2022 MLB Draft had a pretty solid 20-game pro debut.

It started with him tearing it up in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League for eight games and followed with 12 games at Single-A Delmarva where he certainly held his own.

Between the two levels at just age 18, Holliday showed a great batting eye and he walked 25 times with just 12 strikeouts. He ended the year ranked as the Orioles' No. 3 prospect behind Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez, and in national top 100s, he is rated No. 13 by MLBPipeline.com and No. 38 by Baseball America.

In his first season after being a high school drafted player in 2019, Henderson played in 29 games in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and batted .259/.331/.370 with a .701 OPS, 11 walks and 28 strikeouts. He had a 9.1 walk rate and 23.1 strikeout rate.

Holliday in eight FCL games batted .409/.576/.591 with a 1.167 OPS, 10 walks and two strikeouts. In the FCL, he had a 30.3 walk rate and 6.1 strikeout rate. Then in 12 games with the Shorebirds, he hit .238/.439/.333 with a .772 OPS, 15 walks to 10 strikeouts, producing a 26.3 walk rate and 17.5 strikeout rate.

And now on with the real offseason.

The offseason for the Orioles began in a sense Oct. 6, the day after the last game, but now that the World Series is complete, the hot stove business of baseball is about to heat up. And for the Orioles, it could be a time where small moves are not their biggest activity of the offseason.

The obvious questions are these: Will the O’s add a big fish hitter, pitcher or both? Will that happen via trade or free agency, or both? Is now the first time Mike Elias will be trading young talent/prospects for major league-proven talent?

Elias has said he expects the payroll to go up and for the team to be active this winter. The 2023 Orioles' clear No. 1 goal is to make the playoffs. Playoffs or bust.

“I do continue to view this as an offseason where we are going to have the flexibility to invest in the major league payroll in a different way than I have done since I’ve been here,” Elias said at his season-ending press conference. “We feel like the time is right from a strategic standpoint.”

Today's blog entry has spent a few weeks in my laptop. This was written in early September and no, I don't work that far in advance. Hardly.

But that was when the Orioles asked me to write an article that would appear in the Major League Baseball playoffs program if they made the postseason.

They didn't but hey, someone should get to read this!

The topic was building that elite pipeline, how the Orioles did it in Baltimore and how the young talent was helping the big league club turn around their losing ways. Let's begin!

The night of Sept. 3 when the Orioles played the Athletics at home, was one of the latest examples that the Baltimore farm system and player development operation was a big reason for the Orioles' turnaround in the 2022 season.

From 1954 to 1991, it was home for the Orioles. It was also home to the Baltimore Colts, the Canadian Football League’s Baltimore Stallions and for their first two seasons, the Baltimore Ravens. In 1993, it was even home for a season to the Bowie Baysox before Prince George’s Stadium was built.

For some of us of a certain age, it just felt like ... well, home.

It was Memorial Stadium on 33rd Street. 

Looking back, we can admit now it was an old rickety stadium that came up short in a few areas. But when I was kid the anticipation of just going to see a game there was amazing, topped only by actually entering the place itself. It was special and I thought it was the greatest place any kid could ever go.

The memories of so many great games with so many great friends blur a bit now, but that feeling never leaves you. You always remember that. When I was a kid, it was that excited feeling of walking up the ramp to see the green grass and then watch the Orioles take the field. They always seemed to be among the best teams in baseball.

We are getting into the weeds a bit here today, digging into some pitching numbers that might be interesting to look at and note. Maybe they actually tell us something about Orioles pitching as well.

First, in the simplest terms, O’s pitchers, as a staff, threw fewer fastballs and changeups in 2022 compared to 2021. They threw more sliders and cutters and a similar number of curveballs.

In 2021, the Orioles used fastballs (four- and two-seamers combined) 51.0 percent, and that dropped to 47.3 this year. Their average fastball velocity increased, however, from 93.0 mph in 2021, which ranked 22^nd in the major leagues, to 93.8 mph this season, tying them for 12^th in the bigs. Some of the flamethrowers in the bullpen, no doubt, helped increase that average.

In 2021, the Orioles led the majors in throwing changeups, doing so 15.7 percent of the time. This season that percentage dropped to 13.3, which was still sixth-highest in baseball. That means the O’s still really like changeups.

In watching the team this year, there were nights I said to myself, ‘Hey, self, the O’s love the cutter.’ They used that pitch 5.2 percent of the time in ’21 (to rank 20^th in the majors) and increased that this year to 8.4 percent (10^th in baseball).