Steve Melewski
Steve Melewski

What will mark progress for the Orioles in 2020?

What will mark progress for the Orioles in 2020?
Today just a few words from me because this blog is more about what the readers and all O's fans have to say. It's about tracking progress. What would have to happen during the 2020 season for fans to see progress? Is it mostly about winning more games? Or more young players from the farm system making their way onto the roster? Is it about finding some starting pitching from the farm? Or about the farm itself and seeing more progress from minor league players as they make their way toward...
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Steve Melewski

Anyone know how to predict a win-loss record with any degree of success?

Anyone know how to predict a win-loss record with any degree of success?
It's risky business - and I'm not talking about a Tom Cruise movie. Lana won't be knocking at the door. No, we're talking about trying to predict a big league team's win-loss record. But's it's OK, even fun to predict and take a shot. If we're wrong, so what? Who will even remember? Sure, that is all true. I read preseason predictions, but seldom make any. I just don't think there is much of a formula to provide insight and I've watched the Pecota system miss by so much over the years...
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Steve Melewski

Will it be starter, utility role or the farm for Richie Martin?

Will it be starter, utility role or the farm for Richie Martin?
When the Orioles signed José Iglesias to be their starting shortstop, it was easy to make the assumption that now the club would send Richie Martin to Triple-A to start the 2020 season. For one, Martin has never played at that level - jumping from Double-A to the majors last year as a Rule 5 pick. He could use the everyday batting reps. Even though his offense improved last year, it was still a challenge for him at the big league level. And Martin can start every day at Triple-A, while for...
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Steve Melewski

In this review of MLB drafts, the Orioles scored well

In this review of MLB drafts, the Orioles scored well
Baseball America published a very interesting article recently as the publication ranked each major league organization by its draft success in the decade starting in 2010 and running through the 2019 draft. They ranked the teams in terms of total Wins Above Replacement those drafts produced. They counted WAR no matter for which team it was accumulated. So the Orioles scored for Manny Machado, but also for Zach Davies, for instance. It may be a surprise to some fans, but the Orioles ranked...
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Steve Melewski

Trying to get a handle on cheating via technology in MLB

Trying to get a handle on cheating via technology in MLB
The hammer may be about to drop on the Houston Astros for their real-time sign stealing and cheating in baseball. But even before that hammer falls comes news that the Boston Red Sox are involved. Again. Wasn't the Apple Watch episode enough? And it can't be a good look for the sport when the World Series champs of 2017 (Houston) and 2018 (Boston) are tainted. You can say I'm exaggerating here, but a "Landis moment" may be coming soon for Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred. He...
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Steve Melewski

A few notes and takes on the addition of José Iglesias

A few notes and takes on the addition of José Iglesias
The Orioles filled one box on their to-do list yesterday when they agreed on a contract with free agent shortstop José Iglesias. The former Red Sox, Tiger and Red got a one-year deal for $3 million with a club option for 2021 at $3 million, although the deal has not yet been officially announced by the team. The deal provides the club a plus defender at short and you have to like the terms. It's a lower-dollar deal but also provides shortstop protection for two seasons if they want to bring...
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Steve Melewski

Building outfield depth for the Orioles

Building outfield depth for the Orioles
It's been coming for a few years. The Orioles are building some nice outfield depth. Will there be room for everyone? Will this position provide a surplus eventually they may trade from? Let's look at the eight players listed as outfielders on the 40-man roster. Trey Mancini: The Orioles are thrilled he's under team control for three more years. At some point, maybe after 2020, they could look to sign him long-term. He was the 2019 Most Valuable Oriole when he hit .291/.364/.535 with 35...
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Steve Melewski

It is interesting down the road

It is interesting down the road
The Orioles' neighbors to the south are one interesting baseball team right now. They lost Bryce Harper to a division rival, failed to win their division, yet won the World Series. They overcame a poor bullpen by using their starters in relief at times in October. They got clutch offense late throughout the month and won it all. This after a terrible start to the season that produced 93 wins eventually - a total that would not have been enough to make the postseason in the American League. A...
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Steve Melewski

Another look at the importance of winning on the farm

Another look at the importance of winning on the farm
In the minor leagues, winning is not everything. In fact, it may rank a few steps down the line. You can develop players while your team wins, but it's not a prerequisite. You can certainly develop players on teams that don't win. It happens often. It's pretty clear that the primary goal on the O's farm again in 2020 is for individual players to get better and to try to get them to the majors. That is job one, and the rest of the tasks are down the board. It stands to reason that on a team...
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Steve Melewski

Pitch mix and improving slider could serve John Means well in 2020

Pitch mix and improving slider could serve John Means well in 2020
It is a fair and reasonable question to ask about Orioles left-hander John Means: After he had such a strong 2019 season, will he regress next season? What will it take to keep him performing at such a high level? Means went 12-11 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.135 WHIP and finished second in voting for the American League Rookie of the Year Award. He made the All-Star team, going 7-4 with a 2.50 ERA in the first half. The last O's starter with a better season-long ERA was Wei-Yin Chen at 3.34 in...
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Steve Melewski

Another reason to watch in 2020: Hunter Harvey

Another reason to watch in 2020: Hunter Harvey
If there were an award for top Orioles relief outing of the 2019 season, the work by Hunter Harvey from Aug. 27 at Nationals Park would be a prime contender. When we discussed reasons to watch the 2020 Orioles in yesterday's entry, we sure could have included Harvey. After his impressive pitching in a small sample in 2019, who doesn't want to see more from the kid in 2020? His high-wire act on that late August night - when he was throwing fastballs from 98 to 100 mph - was something special...
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Steve Melewski

What will keep fans invested in 2020?

What will keep fans invested in 2020?
Welcome to a new year filled with a new season and new hopes for the Orioles. Those hopes are tempered a bit during rebuilding and no one is likely dreaming too big in light of 223 losses over the past two years. During the offseason, some fans I've met tell me they feel for me having to cover a team that losses so much. I tell all of them that I love what I do and that I truthfully enjoyed covering the 2019 Orioles a great deal. We knew it would not be a winning season and the year would be...
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After hitting .305, can Hanser Alberto do it again?

After hitting .305, can Hanser Alberto do it again?
Maybe Orioles infielder Hanser Alberto won't be thrilled to see 2019 blend into the background. It was a pretty good year for him and now we find out what he can do for an encore. A surprise .300 hitter in 2019, can Alberto produce a similar average for the 2020 Orioles? His .305 average last season ranked eighth-best in the American League and was 16th in Major League Baseball. Maybe Alberto's numbers should not have been a complete surprise. For the Orioles, over 139 games and 550 plate...
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Steve Melewski

For O's pitchers less (fastballs) could be more

For O's pitchers less (fastballs) could be more
In October in this space, we took a look at fastball usage around Major League Baseball and how the Orioles stacked up in a comparison. We found that while the Orioles' average velocity ranked pretty low compared to other teams, their usage of the fastball ranked pretty high. Orioles pitchers threw the sixth-highest percentage of fastballs among 30 MLB teams in 2019 at 54.9 percent. But the average velocity for the Orioles of 92.4 mph rated 27th. By the way, this shows how velocity has...
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Steve Melewski

Alex Cobb's healthy return would provide rotation a big boost

Alex Cobb's healthy return would provide rotation a big boost
When right-hander Alex Cobb signed a four-year deal for $57 million in March 2018, he was joining an Orioles team with a roster that included Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Zack Britton and Brad Brach and hoped to contend in the American League East. When he reported to spring training last February, he was with a very different-looking team - one that was rebuilding and was expected to finish in last place. Cobb made just three starts...
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Steve Melewski

For this player, expectations will be high in 2020

For this player, expectations will be high in 2020
He may not see the Orioles roster at all in the 2020 season. But at a time when expectations will be very low for the team in the standings, they will remain very high for at least one player in the organization come next season. That player is catcher Adley Rutschman. In June, the Orioles made him just the second overall No. 1 draft pick in team history. He was then signed to a record $8.1 million bonus and there is almost no way to temper expectations at this point. While fans greatly...
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Steve Melewski

After 223 losses over two years, can O's fans remain patient?

After 223 losses over two years, can O's fans remain patient?
Yes, we do discuss the Orioles rebuilding a lot on this blog. It's interesting to discuss and it's also the factor that dominates just about everything with the team right now. It seems every baseball decision is made with rebuilding in mind. Some call it tanking and it is your right to use any word you want. To me, that word has a connotation of trying to lose. I don't see the Orioles encouraging losses, but Mike Elias and his front office inherited a team that lost 115 games. They didn't...
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Steve Melewski

Free agent spending: Some do it, some don't

Free agent spending: Some do it, some don't
Remember last winter when baseball free agent spending was moving at a crawl. If it was even moving that fast. The top contracts were not signed until after spring training had started. On Feb. 21, 2019, the San Diego Padres signed former Oriole Manny Machado to a 10-year deal worth $300 million. A week later, the Phillies signed Bryce Harper to a 13-year deal worth $330 million. But sometimes big dollars don't equate to big wins. The Padres went 70-92 and finished in last place. The Phillies...
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Steve Melewski

In September burst, Austin Hays showed a strong skill set

In September burst, Austin Hays showed a strong skill set
In 63 plate appearances with a September call-up in 2017 with the Orioles, outfielder Austin Hays hit .217. In 75 plate appearances last September, he hit .309. But just beyond those numbers, Hays showed some real five-tool talent in his 21-game run last September. Hays hit for average and some power. He drove balls in the gaps. He ran down balls in the gaps and made diving catches. He showed a strong throwing arm. He stole bases. He brought some real energy to the team. During the Winter...
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Steve Melewski

The O's have acquired eight young pitchers in 11 days

The O's have acquired eight young pitchers in 11 days
The Orioles had some solid success with their young pitchers on the farm during the 2019 season. And they keep adding young pitchers to that group that competed last season. Of the Orioles' top six farm teams, four clubs led their leagues in ERA last summer. That was at Double-A Bowie, Single-A Delmarva, short-season Single-A Aberdeen and in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League. And while it is true that Triple-A Norfolk and Single-A Frederick ranked last in their leagues in ERA in 2019,...
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