After season of real progress, Gray wants to take next step

PLAYER REVIEW: JOSIAH GRAY

Age on Opening Day 2024: 26

How acquired: Traded with Keibert Ruiz, Donovan Casey and Gerardo Carrillo from Dodgers for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, July 2021

MLB service time: 2 years, 75 days

2023 salary: $730,000

Contract status: Under club control, arbitration-eligible in 2025, free agent in 2028

2023 stats: 8-13, 3.91 ERA, 30 G, 30 GS, 159 IP, 152 H, 72 R, 69 ER, 22 HR, 80 BB, 143X SO, 9 HBP, 1.459 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 4.94 FIP, 3.2 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR

Quotable: “This year was better than last. And that was better than the year before that. Now next year, I have to look into how do I get better from this year?” – Josiah Gray

2023 analysis: Gray entered the season with some clearly stated goals: 1) Improve his fastball command, 2) Reduce his walks issued and 3) Reduce his home runs allowed. In the end, he made progress on the first goal, actually got worse on the second objective but dramatically achieved the third change.

The right-hander’s season really could be broken down into three parts. He was outstanding in the first half, going 6-6 with a 3.30 ERA through his first 17 starts, often getting himself into jams (1.385 WHIP) but usually pitching his way out of them (opponents batted just .195 and slugged just .232 against him with runners in scoring position). The league noticed and rewarded him with the first All-Star selection of his career.

The second half wasn’t nearly so kind to Gray. Over his next 10 starts, he went 1-5 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.727 WHIP, seeing his walk rate skyrocket to 6.2 per nine innings and his home run rate slightly increase to 1.4 per nine innings. A once-promising season was beginning to teeter on the brink.

The Nats gave Gray an early-September breather, though, and he bounced back to finish strong, posting a 2.08 ERA and 1.154 WHIP over his final three starts, getting his ERA back under 4.00 by lowering his walk rate to 2.9 per nine innings and upping his strikeout rate to 10.9 per nine innings.

2024 outlook: Gray undoubtedly made significant strides this season. He did so in part by recognizing his strengths (a deep repertoire of pitches that move) and his weaknesses (a hittable fastball that tends to tail back over the plate) and making necessary adjustments. After throwing his four-seamer 39 percent of the time (and watching hitters crush it to the tune of a .732 slugging percentage) in 2022, he threw it only 17 percent of the time this year. He instead began throwing more sinkers (17.2 percent) and cutters (17.8 percent), both pitches with fastball velocity but far more movement. The result was weaker contact, and that dramatic decline in home runs surrendered.

The next big step for Gray: Finally cut down on those walks. Long counts plagued him too often, whether in the form of more baserunners or high pitch counts that prevented him from going deeper in games. Too often he tries to make the perfect pitch, getting a swing-and-miss, instead of trusting his arsenal to induce weak contact (which he actually did well this season).

Gray is an admitted tinkerer, and while that can be to his benefit at times (the addition of the cutter this season) it can also be to his detriment at times. He started throwing a sweeper this season, adding yet another breaking ball on top of his slider and curveball when he might have been better served just to work more at improving those long-existing (and quality) pitches.

If nothing else, Gray has shown he can make adjustments, and usually for the better. He was especially pleased with his strong finish to the season, changing the narrative that was developing (great first half, followed by a second-half collapse) and heading home for the winter feeling good about his season as a whole. There’s still more work to do, and he’s the first to admit it, but another season of improvement in 2024 could elevate him into the consistently effective No. 2 or 3 starter the Nationals have long believed he will become.