With more consistency, Gore could grow into Nats' ace

PLAYER REVIEW: MACKENZIE GORE

Age on Opening Day 2024: 25

How acquired: Traded with CJ Abrams, James Wood, Robert Hassell III, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit from Padres for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, August 2022

MLB service time: 2 years

2023 salary: $723,300

Contract status: Under club control, arbitration-eligible in 2025, free agent in 2028

2023 stats: 7-10, 4.42 ERA, 27 G, 27 GS, 136 1/3 IP, 134 H, 71 R, 67 ER, 27 HR, 57 BB, 151 SO, 1 HBP, 1.401 WHIP, 97 ERA+, 4.89 FIP, 2.0 bWAR, 1.3 fWAR

Quotable: “It’s all going to be about consistency. When he’s good, he’s good. His stuff is always electric. We’ve got to get him to understand how to use his stuff, how to attack hitters a little better. His misses need to be more around the zone. But overall, I think he’s matured from the beginning of the year to now tremendously. … I told him before: ‘You’re a future All-Star, if you want to be.’ Physically, he’s great. The mental game is what he’s really working on a lot, and he’s done really well with that.” – Davey Martinez

2023 analysis: The Nationals were excited about Gore’s potential from the moment they acquired him in last summer’s blockbuster deal with San Diego, but rehab from an elbow injury prevented them from actually seeing him pitch in the big leagues in a curly W cap until this year. Once they finally got the opportunity to watch the lefty in action, they emerged highly encouraged by his potential while also recognizing his need to learn consistency.

At his best, Gore delivered some of the best starts of the season by any member of the Nats’ pitching staff. He overwhelmed the Royals to the tune of seven innings of one-run, three-hit, one-walk, 11-strikeout ball. He also struck out 10 while allowing only one run against the Mets. All told, he finished with five starts in which he allowed zero or one run while striking out at least seven.

But at his worst, Gore slogged his way through some of the Nationals’ worst starts of the season. He failed to reach the fifth inning six times. He allowed five or more runs six times. He issued four or more walks five times. He surrendered three homers in a start twice.

The end result was an erratic year. And unlike rotation mate Josiah Gray, Gore didn’t go on sustained stretches of excellence or subpar performances. It was almost impossible to know what to expect any given time he took the mound. Cautious of his workload in his first full big league season, the Nats intended to spread out the lefty’s starts down the stretch. They wound up shutting him down and placing him on the injured list after a Sept. 9 outing in which a nasty blister opened up on his middle finger, bringing an unfortunately abrupt end to his 2023 campaign.

2024 outlook: While nobody was fully satisfied with this season in totality – Gore, a bit of a perfectionist, topped that list – there was plenty of optimism among club officials about the promise the young hurler showed in his first full year in D.C., and the potential for him to make some big strides next year.

Here’s perhaps the best way to view the erratic nature of Gore’s season: In his 17 wins and no-decisions, he posted a 2.58 ERA and 1.282 WHIP; in his 10 losses, those numbers skyrocketed to 7.71 and 1.612. Interestingly enough, his walk rate was nearly identical, and his strikeout rate wasn’t all that different. What was different? The loud contact he surrendered in his bad starts, especially those that produced longballs. In the 17 wins and no-decisions, he surrendered only 1.2 homers per nine innings. In the 10 losses, he surrendered 2.8.

How does Gore overcome that issue? It’s not a question of stuff. He’s got an electric fastball, one he can use to put away hitters with two strikes. And his slider and curveball are effective, as well. But the full arsenal only works when he gets ahead of hitters. When he was ahead in the count, opponents hit just .229/.238/.466. They weren’t much better when the count was even: .238/.238/.466. But when he was behind in the count, opponents hit a healthy .318/.500/.642. And he found himself behind in the count 36 percent of the time (more than 32 percent of the time he was ahead or even). Across the major leagues, the distribution of counts was nearly equal this season, so Gore fell behind more often than most pitchers in the sport. And the negative results that came with that were clear.

Every manager and pitching coach in the world will tell you the best pitch in baseball is strike one. That mantra seems to apply to Gore more than most. If he can learn to get his first pitch over the plate with more consistency, he’s going to enjoy more consistent success. And the Nationals may have themselves a true frontline starter before long.