After slight stats drop, is Adam Jones poised to return to previous form?

Orioles center fielder Adam Jones will soon leave the team to play for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. He might take a hot bat into that competition. After going 2-for-3 with a home run against Boston Wednesday, Jones is 5-for-11 this spring (.455) with two homers and four RBIs.

When you look at players who can improve on their 2016 statistics as the Orioles look to return to the postseason, Jones is on that list. After finishing in the top 15 in the American League MVP voting from 2012-2014, Jones' 2016 stats fell off - certainly by the standard he set throughout his career.

If you believe that an OPS-plus of 100 is indeed league average, then Jones at 95 finished a tick below average in 2016. This after a seven-year run with an OPS-plus over 100 that averaged 113. His batting average was its lowest since 2007 and his OPS at its lowest point since 2008.

His stats for the year were certainly decent at .265/.310/.436 with 19 doubles, 29 homers, 86 runs, 83 RBIs and an OPS of .746. I don't see that as below average personally, but OPS-plus does.

When it comes to the Baseball-Reference.com Wins Above Replacement stat, Jones went from 4.8 in 2014 to 3.2 in 2015 and to 1.1 last year. Among FanGraphs.com's WAR in the same time, he went from 5.5 to 3.6 to 1.4.

Outside the clubhouse, Jones is a lightning rod at times for fan criticism. Despite his five All-Star appearances, four Gold Glove Awards and three top 15 MVP finishes, he gets heat from fans for chasing pitches. Inside the clubhouse, he gets respect and appreciation for leadership and hustle and wanting to show the way in posting to play every day. He was banged up last year, but to what extent, we don't know for sure and he'll never say. But he still played in 152 games.

It is pretty clear that Jones' play is critical to the Orioles. He is just one man and needs help of course, but his career OPS is .894 in O's wins and .659 in losses.

Fans also get worked up when Jones makes an out on the first pitch of an at-bat. Yet in his career, he is a .364 hitter with an OPS of 1.008 when putting the first pitch in play. But even those stats fell off a bit last season to .302 and .954. Still, he hit 11 first-pitch homers in 2016 to tie for the American League lead. Fans who criticize Jones for first-pitch swinging would love to see him bat .364 overall and that is exactly what he does in his career on the first pitch. We need to keep that in mind.

One area that could bring Jones' stats back to previous levels would be an improvement in batting against left-handed pitchers. In his career, Jones actually has reverse splits - he has better numbers versus right-handed pitchers. But the difference was vast last season. He hit .218/.268/.313 against lefties for an OPS-plus of 59. He hit .280/.323/.475 versus right-handers for an OPS-plus of 114.

The good news here is he will get about three times as many plate appearances against right-handers and his lefty stats last year may prove to be an outlier. His career numbers are .264/.314/.415 against left-handers and he hit .261 against left-handers in 2015. Improvement here on his 2016 numbers seems very likely.

Jones' defense doesn't score well in some of the defensive metrics. By my personal eye test, he is better than those numbers. Yet among the seven AL center fielders that qualified as league leaders last year, he ranked seventh with -10 Defensive Runs Saved.

Jones' track record tells us he can produce better stats than last year and we have every reason to expect if healthy, he will do just that this year. As usual, he will be in the spotlight as a team leader, and the fans and readers here will no doubt be tracking his every swing. He probably wouldn't have it any other way.