Are Nats ready to spend again to supplement young roster?

It feels a bit like ancient history at this point, but it’s worth remembering the Nationals were consistently one of baseball’s highest-spending clubs for nearly a decade. For nine consecutive seasons from 2013-21, their year-end payroll ranked among the top 10 in the majors, peaking in 2019 at more than $205 million (fourth-highest in the sport).

That all changed in July 2021 when the franchise tore down its aging roster and embarked on a rebuild that continues to this day. The Nats ranked 18th in year-end payroll in 2022, 22nd in 2023 and 24th this season, according to figures calculated by Spotrac.

The organization’s approach to the last three offseasons was clear: The major league roster would be filled with short-term solutions while everyone waited for a revamped farm system to start producing the next wave of big leaguers. The Nationals spent a total of $22.25 million on major league free agents prior to the 2022 season, another $22.25 million entering 2023 and only $9.25 million entering this season. Only one player signed a guaranteed multi-year contract: Trevor Williams (two years, $13 million).

While frustrating to many, and subject to plenty of criticism, the approach was grounded in some actual baseball logic: It made little sense to spend big money on free agents until enough prospects made it to the big leagues and the team was ready to actually “go for it” again.

That logic was justified each of the last three winters. It’s not justified this time around.

Though the Nationals’ rebuild isn’t complete, enough of the key pieces are now in place at the major league level to warrant real supplementation from the outside.

The Nats believe they have a good, young corps of position players, headlined by James Wood, Dylan Crews, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. They still lack a proven power hitter, one who could be plugged into the middle of the lineup and launch 25-plus homers.

The Nats believe they have a good, young corps of starting pitchers, headlined by MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker, with Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray hopefully returning from injury to contribute at some point during the 2025 season. They still lack a proven frontline starter, one who could be counted upon for 175-plus innings and a sub-3.50 ERA.

There’s also room for some experienced bullpen help, and ideally another experienced bat as well. But a big power hitter (preferably a first baseman) and a quality starting pitcher are clearly the top priorities entering this winter. And there will be a number of them available via free agency, if the Nationals are willing to dive back into that market.

“I think it’s time to spend at a point,” general manager Mike Rizzo said last week when asked the question. “We’re going to see who’s available, and what fits we have out there. But I think that it’s time for us to add to the roster, because we’ve got a good young core group of guys, and some veteran leadership, I think, is warranted.”

Rizzo, of course, only has so much say in the matter. He can believe it’s time to spend big bucks again, but he doesn’t set the payroll budget. That comes from above, from an ownership group that has yet to publicly state its intentions this winter.

Managing principal owner Mark Lerner, who rarely grants interviews, told team broadcaster Dan Kolko at the end of the 2023 season he lets Rizzo dictate his offseason plans and hinted the GM’s plan would involve an increase in spending after the 2024 season.

“My guess is he’ll say: ‘No, give it another year. Let’s get some of these young guys here and being productive, then you take the leap,’” Lerner said at the time. “Whatever he desires, he knows he has the resources, and he’s always had the resources since the day we took over this team, to build a winner. I can’t recall in all these years, on one hand, that he’s been turned down for something.”

It’s unclear if ownership has presented Rizzo with a 2025 budget yet; those meetings typically have come after the season. Within the organization, there’s a wide range of expectations how this is likely to proceed. Some believe payroll will increase significantly, some believe it will increase a modest amount and some are skeptical it will increase at all.

There isn’t much already on the books. With Patrick Corbin and Williams’ contracts expiring, and with Stephen Strasburg retired (though still being paid), only one player currently under club control is projected to earn more than $5 million next season: closer Kyle Finnegan, who MLB Trade Rumors recently projected to make $8.6 million via arbitration. The only player with an already guaranteed salary for 2025 is Keibert Ruiz, who will make a modest $5 million in the third year of his eight-year, $50 million deal.

So, there should be plenty of room with which to work. It’s now up to Lerner (and his family) to make the commitment he suggested he would make when the time was right, and to Rizzo to use whatever resources he’s given to make the proper additions to a roster everyone expects to be good enough to start winning again in 2025.