Baseball Prospectus No. 1 Nats prospect: Lucas Giolito

Right-hander Lucas Giolito made tremendous progress in 2014 after recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 6-foot-6, 255-pound first-round selection from 2012 won 10 games and pitched 98 innings for the low Single-A Hagerstown Suns.

Baseball Prospectus lists him as its No. 1 Nationals prospect.

No. 1: right-hander Lucas Giolito

Chris Mellen, co-director of the Baseball Prospectus prospect team, believes Giolito has the potential to be a frontline starter in the majors and the Nationals are smart to bring the 20-year-old along at their own, measured pace.

"He's got all the potential in the world to be one of the elite pitchers at the major league level," Mellen said. "He's already overcome the Tommy John surgery (and) got back to the mound, his stuff has rebounded. It's really showing its form this past season. There's still some training wheels on him this past year. They're still careful, they're still cautious. You've got to ramp him back up. You just don't throw him into the fire, especially a young arm who really is just debuting, just getting his feet wet in the professional ranks."

Mellen believes the Nationals might now be able to stretch out Giolito and test him out to the 30-plus start range. He started 20 games in 2014 and took significant rest time from mid-May to early June.

"Next year, further away from surgery, the kid gloves could be coming off, it could be more deeper into outings," Mellen contends. "There's a lot of positive feedback. He's got to be one of the top prospects in the game. He's a headliner of the system."

One point of focus for the Nationals may be testing and improving Giolito's stamina. But there is no reason to push him since he never pitched in college.

"Stuff does trail off a little bit deeper into games, third time through. The fastball, early on easily 96-97 mph, starts to creep back down to that 93-94 mph range," Mellen noted. "That's something with stamina, with arm strength. With repetition, you look at him and he can do it. He can consistently work up in that range. But he's going to have to show it, he's going to have to prove it.

"I think based on what he did last year and what his stuff is, I don't think the Carolina League is going to be a ton of resistance for him. I think he should be able to bulldoze through that league."

That means that Giolito could be closer than some think to pitching at Nationals Park.

"I think there's a strong chance that he can make Double-A and finish at that level this season," Mellen predicts. "Then you are looking at a guy potentially next year who could be on the major league radar depending on how things go. That's how it could ultimately progress for him."