Yesterday, we looked at the Nationals’ projected position players and tried to decide if they figure to get better, worse or the same production from each spot this year as they got last year. While the overall outlook for a top-tier lineup doesn’t exactly look great, it does appear to be better in most spots, including a few key positions.
Now, what about the pitching staff? It’s probably not fair to run this exercise yet, because there are still several significant holes to fill in the bullpen. But we don’t know when (or if) that will happen for certain, so all we can do is evaluate the state of things in their current form.
What’s the outlook? Is the 2025 Nats pitching staff likely to be better, worse or the same as it was in 2024? …
NO. 1 STARTER: Slightly better, maybe much better
We don’t know at this point who the Opening Day starter will be, but let’s say it’s MacKenzie Gore. He had the lowest ERA (3.91) and the most strikeouts (181) on the staff last season while also tying for the team lead in wins (10). Is that as good as the left-hander is going to get? The feeling here is no. Gore has long been touted as a frontline big league starter, and while we’ve seen stretches of that from him, we’re still waiting for him to put it all together over a full year. Here’s why he may be ready to make that leap: While he was excellent in his 10 wins last season (1.98 ERA), he was considerably better in his 12 losses (5.37 ERA) than he was the previous year (7.71 ERA). We know Gore is outstanding when he’s at his best. The key for him now is to just be OK when he’s not at his best, not letting starts blow up on him. He showed improvement in that area last season, and there’s reason to believe he can continue to get better this season.
NO. 2 STARTER: Same, maybe better
Jake Irvin was one of the most positive developments of the 2024 season, with 10 wins, 187 2/3 innings pitched and a strong 1.199 WHIP. Like Gore, he was really good when he was at his best (1.61 ERA in wins, 2.59 ERA in no-decisions) but really bad when he wasn’t at his best (8.28 ERA in 14 losses). Can he reduce the number of those bad starts, or at least pitch a bit better in those games? If he can, Irvin has a chance to be better overall this season. Even if he doesn’t, he can be a solid workhorse for this team.
NO. 3 STARTER: Should be better, but not guaranteed
Patrick Corbin’s days with the Nationals are over. We know how much of a struggle the last four years of his six-year contract were, culminating in last season’s 5.62 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. Who replaces him? Well, at this point it appears to be Michael Soroka, who signed a one-year, $9 million deal. Soroka is a long way removed from his excellent rookie campaign with the Braves in 2019. He went 0-10 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.381 WHIP last year for the White Sox, who moved him to the bullpen along the way. Obviously, the Nats hope he's much better than that. But even if he’s not, a repeat of those 2024 numbers would still represent improvement over Corbin. The only real concern: He’s unlikely to pitch as many innings as his predecessor. Let’s also keep in mind, though, this spot could change hands during the season. Cade Cavalli may finally be ready at some point. And there are other young starters who could be ready to step in if needed, as well.
NO. 4 STARTER: Slightly worse, but maybe not
Trevor Williams was great last season … when he pitched. The veteran made only 13 starts because of injuries, but he went 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA in those starts. And the guy who ostensibly replaced him (DJ Herz) wasn’t too shabby for a rookie, going 4-9 with a 4.16 ERA in 19 starts. Combine their stats and you get a 10-10 record, 3.24 ERA, 1.165 WHIP and 155 1/3 innings over 32 starts. That’s really solid for someone near back end of your rotation. Williams is back on a new two-year deal. It may be too much to ask of him to duplicate his 2024 numbers over a full season, but maybe he can duplicate those combined numbers he and Herz produced?
NO. 5 STARTER: Same, maybe slightly better
As things currently stand, there’s probably only room in the Opening Day rotation for either Herz or Mitchell Parker, but not both young lefties. We already outlined Herz’s numbers from 2024. Parker, who made 29 starts after replacing the injured Josiah Gray, went 7-10 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.305 WHIP. Can one or both of these guys duplicate those numbers in 2025? That seems reasonable. And if Herz seizes the job, he may have enough upside to exceed those numbers over a full season.
CLOSER: Worse
The Nationals had an All-Star closer, albeit a somewhat flawed one, in Kyle Finnegan and chose not to retain him, believing he wasn’t worth the $8 million to $9 million he was likely to receive via arbitration. OK, so who do they have to replace him? At the moment, there’s nobody in the bullpen with anything close to Finnegan’s track record. They signed veteran Jorge Lopez, who has closed before but is probably best suited to be a setup man. Same for Derek Law, who returns for a second season. There’s been some chatter about Jose A. Ferrer’s potential as a ninth-inning flamethrower, but there’s not much evidence to go on there aside from a 99-mph fastball that may or may not be legit. There’s still time to sign someone else, and there remain a boatload of available free agents at this late date. If the Nats land someone with some kind of track record, they can ultimately get at least the same, maybe better, performance as they got from Finnegan. But at this moment, you cannot say they’re in better (or even the same) shape as 2024.
SETUP MEN: Same, maybe worse
The Nationals had a pretty good trio of right-handed setup men for the first half of 2024, with Hunter Harvey, Dylan Floro and Law. Harvey and Floro were traded in July, but Law returns. He’s now joined by Lopez, who in theory takes over the Floro role. They probably still need one more experienced arm to fill in the gaps, though. You’d like to think they’ll sign one before Opening Day, making this group roughly the equivalent of last year’s group.
OTHER RIGHT-HANDERS: Slightly worse
There’s not a lot of exciting depth in this bullpen as currently constructed. The 2024 Nats had Jacob Barnes (currently a free agent), Tanner Rainey (now a Pirate), Jordan Weems (now a Brave) and Eduardo Salazar (still with the team). They got a glimpse of Zach Brzykcy and Orlando Ribalta, neither of whom showed much in limited opportunities. They used their Rule 5 Draft pick on Evan Reifert, who could or could not make an impact as a 25-year-old rookie who has never pitched above Double-A before.
OTHER LEFT-HANDERS: Worse
The Nationals traded their most-reliable lefty reliever (Robert Garcia) to the Rangers to acquire first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and have yet to replace him. Ferrer has a lot of promise but remains young and inexperienced. Joe La Sorsa is mostly a low-leverage arm who often gets sent to Triple-A when the club has better options at the big league level. It feels like they need to go get another experienced arm to help in this area, yet another hole in a bullpen that has many of them only three weeks before the start of spring training.