Cost of quality pitching continues to rise

Juan Soto stole the biggest headline at the now-completed Winter Meetings – and for $765 million, rightfully so – but the most significant broader storyline to develop out of Dallas might well have been the shape of the pitching market.

In short, it’s expensive. Really expensive.

While only a handful of top position players have signed so far this offseason, a good number of free agent starters have found new homes. And they’ve been paid handsomely for their services.

The real eye-opener so far was Max Fried, who parlayed the Yankees’ frustration at losing Soto to the Mets into a gargantuan, eight-year, $218 million contract. That shattered most predictions for the left-hander, who undoubtedly is one of the league’s better starters but has dealt with some injuries in recent years and isn’t a prototypical power pitcher.

Fried’s deal, which runs through his age-38 season, was the biggest one given to a pitcher so far this winter. But it’s not the only one that exceeded expectations.

Blake Snell got $182 million over five years. Nathan Eovaldi got $75 million over three years. Luis Severino got $67 million over three years (from the Athletics!). Michael Wacha got $51 million over three years.

Point is, if the Nationals want to dive into this market, they had better be armed with multiple credit cards.

We know they need to add at least one starter to a rotation filled with promising young arms (MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker, maybe Cade Cavalli) but completely lacking in any experience with the departures of Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams. Those two veterans combined to make $43 million this season, so in theory they can afford to shell out some significant bucks for a more accomplished replacement.

But it’s still going to cost quite a bit. Corbin Burnes, the last remaining ace-type free agent, is probably looking at something in the Fried range (aka more than $200 million). Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea won’t cost as much, but they’ll still get paid very well on the strength of their 2024 performances.

And then there are the biggest names, three likely Hall of Famers who because of their advanced ages may not command more than a one- or two-year deal but still should command hefty annual salaries: Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. The idea of the Nationals bringing Scherzer back for a farewell tour has always loomed as a possibility, but how much are they willing to spend for a 40-year-old who was able to make only nine starts this season in Texas?

What about the trade market? Well, the top target there, Garrett Crochet, was dealt Wednesday from the White Sox to the Red Sox. The price: four of Boston’s top 15 prospects, including 2023 first round pick Kyle Teel.

There’s been talk other clubs are willing to listen to offers for starting pitchers with multiple years of club control, but you can bet their asking prices will be exorbitant after seeing the haul Chicago got for Crochet.

We know how much Mike Rizzo values starting pitching. We know he wants to add an experienced arm who can help guide his young guys as they try to reach contender status for the first time in their respective careers.

But as always, the price for good pitching is high. Maybe higher than it’s ever been.