Could recent signings provide framework for a Santander deal?

Some projections when free agency was just beginning had outfielder Anthony Santander getting $100 million and maybe more whenever he signs his next contract.

Free to sign with any team, Santander is still out there for any club to sign, but maybe some recent deals provide a framework for his next one.

As free agency opened up, MLBTradeRumors.com projected that Santander, ranked as its No. 9 free agent, would get a four-year deal for $80 million. ESPN projected he would sign for three years and $69 million. FanGraphs.com predicted five years for $100 million and The Athletic put it at five years and $105 million.

An Oriole since the 2016 Rule 5 draft and for parts of eight big league seasons, Santander is expected to sign elsewhere, especially after the Orioles added outfielder Tyler O’Neill via free agency.

For his 2024 season on offense, Santander hit .235/.308/.506/.814 with 25 doubles, two triples, 44 homers, 91 runs and 102 RBIs.

He became the eighth Oriole to hit 40 or more home runs and first since Mark Trumbo in 2016. He became the first Oriole with 100 or more RBIs since Jonathan Schoop drove in 105 in 2017.

Santander, who turned 30 on Oct. 19, finished second in the American League and third in the majors in homers. He ranked ninth in the AL in RBIs, 11^th in slugging and 13^th in OPS.

The Orioles made Santander a qualifying offer, which he declined, meaning they get a draft pick, possibly in the low 30s, should he sign for more than $50 million.

Right before Christmas, the Houston Astros signed first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year deal for $60 million. Walker, the University of South Carolina product the Orioles selected in round four of the 2012 MLB Draft, turns 34 in late March.

Walker, who has produced 11.4 Wins Above Replacement the last three seasons, has hit 95 homers with an .813 OPS in that span. He has also won three straight Gold Gloves at first base. His performance might have warranted a bigger contract, but his age might have tempered it. 

Outfielder Teoscar Hernández, as many projected, did re-sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers for three years and $66 million. The deal includes a team option for 2028, so they can make this a four-year deal later. Hernández is 32.

In terms of offensive production, these three players are similar. In 2024, Walker’s OPS was .803, and it is .793 for his career. In 2024, Hernandez’s OPS was .840, and it is .808 for his career. While Santander produced a 2024 OPS of .814, he holds a .776 career number there.

Santander out-homered the others last season, bashing 44 to 33 for Hernández and 26 for Walker.

In fWAR, Hernandez posted a 3.5 for last season, with Santander at 3.3 and Walker at 3.0.

So if Walker got $60 million and Hernandez $66 million, does that mean Santander gets a similar amount? It could, but he is also younger than the others and could at least get a fourth year from some club. That would surely move him past the other two in total value of the deal.