Free agent spending: Some do it, some don't

Remember last winter when baseball free agent spending was moving at a crawl. If it was even moving that fast. The top contracts were not signed until after spring training had started.

On Feb. 21, 2019, the San Diego Padres signed former Oriole Manny Machado to a 10-year deal worth $300 million. A week later, the Phillies signed Bryce Harper to a 13-year deal worth $330 million.

But sometimes big dollars don't equate to big wins. The Padres went 70-92 and finished in last place. The Phillies went 81-81 and finished fourth.

However, those results surely didn't give any team pause this time around. No one had to wait until February this winter to see the top contracts get inked.

Last year there were three contracts signed for $100 million or more (Patrick Corbin got $140 million from the Nationals) and six for $50 million or more. This year there have been four signed for $100 million plus, and 10 for $50 million or more.

It's been a spending frenzy, and it all happened before Christmas, and most of it by the end of the Winter Meetings. The sport remains very healthy, if health is determined by the dollars in the game.

In each case of the top 10 contracts signed since the 2019 season ended, the player got more money than projected by MLBTradeRumors.com. The publication projected a lot of huge contracts would be handed out, and those projections were topped 10 times out of 10.

* Yankees signed Gerrit Cole for $324 million (projection was $256 million).
* Angels signed Anthony Rendon for $245 million (projection was $235 million).
* Nats signed Stephen Strasburg for $245 million (projection was $180 million).
* Phillies signed Zack Wheeler for $118 million (projection was $100 million).
* Diamondbacks signed Madison Bumgarner for $85 million (projection was $72 million).
* Blue Jays signed Hyun-Jin Ryu for $80 million (projection was $54 million).
* White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal for $73 million (projection was $68 million).
* Reds signed Mike Moustakas for $64 million (projection was $20 million).
* White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel for $55 million (projection was $39 million).
* White Sox signed José Abreu for $50 million (projection was $28 million).

In the last two winters, five of the biggest 10 contracts in major league history have been signed by Harper (No. 1), Cole (No. 2), Machado (No. 3), Rendon (tied for No. 6) and Strasburg (tied for No. 6).

Contrast this spending with that of the Boston Red Sox, who keep indicating they intend to stay under the luxury tax limit of $208 million for 2020 salaries. Teams that exceed the spending limit for a given year pay a tax on the overage. The amount depends on how far over the line the team goes. The penalty increases if a team spends over the tax limit for a second year in a row, and a third year of overspending incurs an even steeper rate. Boston went over the limit in both 2018 and 2019 and wants to end that streak at two years in a row.

In recent years - until this one - the Yankees have been pretty quiet in free agency. The Nationals this year signed Strasburg as Rendon got away - one year after Harper left them. The Cubs may be reigning in their spending. The Red Sox may consider trading Mookie Betts to move his projected $27.7 million arbitration bill for this coming season.

It is kind of hard to process that we see some teams spending crazy money on free agents while other big-market teams pull back on spending to reset their total dollars under the luxury tax. Both are happening at the same time.

If players like Harper, Rendon and possibly Betts can leave their current teams due to tax concerns and potential budget constraints, even for the big boys, maybe spending in the game is both out of control and somewhat under control at the same time.

This all comes at a time when the Orioles' payroll is heading south, as they recently traded both Jonathan Villar and Dylan Bundy. They were projected to earn a combined $16.1 million for 2020.

It was hard for some fans to see the Orioles subtract from a team that lost 108 games. The rebuilding and the overhauling of the roster continues.

For now, Baltimore is heading toward the lower end of the payroll spectrum. The fans who believe in and have put their trust in Mike Elias and his front office for now are asked to foresee a day when the club will be better and spend the dollars they are not spending right now.