García's up-and-down year could leave future in doubt

PLAYER REVIEW: LUIS GARCÍA

Age on Opening Day 2024: 23

How acquired: Signed as international free agent, July 2016

MLB service time: 2 years, 142 days

2023 salary: $739,000

Contract status: May be Super 2 arbitration-eligible in 2024, free agent in 2028

2023 stats: 122 G, 482 PA, 447 AB, 61 R, 119 H, 18 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 50 RBI, 9 SB, 4 CS, 27 BB, 60 SO, .266 AVG, .304 OBP, .385 SLG, .688 OPS, 90 OPS+, -7 DRS, 0.6 bWAR, 0.1 fWAR

Quotable: “I expect a lot of things these last few weeks. But basically finish strong in the season, keep working with my routine and stay on my routine so that I can actually have more success on the field. That’s what I expect: To finish strong the last few weeks.” – Luis García, via interpreter Octavio Martinez, following his Sept. 8 recall from Triple-A Rochester

2023 analysis: Other than perhaps CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz, García entered the season with as bright a spotlight on him as anyone else in the Nationals lineup. After an encouraging finish to his 2022, he seemed to be positioned well for what was viewed as an important year for the young infielder, one that could determine if he really does fit into the long-term plan or not.

García certainly looked more comfortable as an everyday second baseman following what was at times a cringe-worthy experiment at shortstop the previous season. He wasn’t charged with an error until May 19, his 45th game played. And he ranked among the league leaders in double plays turned, teaming up with Abrams to help get his pitchers out of a number of jams.

Offensively, García started slow but then heated up for a good month: From April 22-May 26, he hit .319/.366/.412. Things devolved from there, though. From June 30-Aug. 2, those numbers plummeted to .196/.227/.272. At the same time, his defensive performance began to wane. All of that prompted the Nats to make what felt like a surprise move at the time: He was demoted to Triple-A after the Aug. 2 walk-off win, tasked not only with improving his stroke at the plate but, maybe more importantly, his conditioning and preparation in the field.

García was called back up five weeks later and given an opportunity to show if he had made the necessary improvements. His offensive performance was better: He hit .304/.360/.507 in 22 September games. He made a few above-average plays at second base, but he continued to have trouble reaching grounders to his right that looked playable.

2024 outlook: The Nationals exited the year confident Abrams and Ruiz are part of the long-term plan. They appear less confident about García, as their actions clearly revealed. (They wouldn’t have felt the need to demote him to Rochester if they were sure about his prospects.)

September was an important month for him, and he did enjoy better offensive numbers. But was his approach all that different from earlier in the season? García is an unusual hitter in one specific regard: He’s way more successful when hitting the ball to the opposite field (.990 OPS) than when he pulls the ball (.564). The ability to go the other way is a valuable skill, but you can’t really be successful in the big picture without being able to drive the ball to the pull side. García's astonishingly low .193 BABIP when pulling the ball to the right side raises some real red flags about his ability to improve.

There’s also still reason to question if he’s ever going to become a consistently strong defender. Though he began the year strong in the field, FanGraphs ultimately ranked García 22nd out of 27 major league second basemen in total defense, 24th in Defensive Runs Saved. He doesn’t make a lot of errors, but he doesn’t get to nearly as many balls as most of his counterparts.

The Nationals don’t necessarily have a ready-made second baseman of the future waiting in the wings. Jake Alu had a chance to throw himself into the fray down the stretch and didn’t blow anybody away. Trey Lipscomb could eventually be a big league second baseman, but for now he’s playing all four infield positions in the minors. So barring the addition of a veteran from outside this winter, it would seem García is still in the team’s 2024 plan. One potentially complicating factor: It’s not yet officially known if he’ll qualify for arbitration as a Super 2 player who came close enough to three years of big league service time. If he does, he’ll probably earn a salary north of $2 million. If he doesn’t, he’ll remain in the $800,000 range.