Gray out most of 2025 after Tommy John surgery, internal brace procedure

Josiah Gray underwent Tommy John surgery, plus an additional procedure to further stabilize his right elbow, officially ending his 2024 season and guaranteeing the Nationals’ Opening Day starter will miss the majority of the 2025 season as well.

Gray, who learned last week he had a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, flew to Dallas to be operated on today by orthopedist Keith Meister, who left open the possibility of performing only the less invasive internal brace procedure.

In the end, Meister determined the tear to be significant enough to warrant the full ligament replacement surgery named for the famed left-hander whose career was saved by the then-experimental procedure in the 1970s, plus the internal brace procedure, which reinforces the new elbow ligament.

Typical recovery time for Tommy John surgery is 12-to-18 months, so even in a best-case scenario, Gray would only be ready to return late in the 2025 season.

“He’s going to miss time, as we all know,” said manager Davey Martinez after announcing the news following tonight’s 12-3 loss to the Padres. “But he’s doing well. He feels good about it. … He’s got a long road, he knows that. But knowing him, he’s going to work really hard to get back.”

It’s an unfortunate, though not unexpected development for the Nationals, who had been braced for bad news since Gray reported a recurrence of elbow pain following a June 30 rehab start with Triple-A Rochester.

Gray seemed to be on the verge of returning to the active roster after spending more than 2 1/2 months on the injured list with a flexor strain in his elbow, having made only two starts to begin the season. His June 25 rehab start with Rochester – one run over six innings, 73 pitches – went extremely well, and there was talk of activating him then.

But the Nationals decided to have him make one more minor league start, and that bore no resemblance to the previous one, with seven runs allowed over only three innings and Gray reporting the elbow pain afterward.

This is the first time Gray has dealt with any kind of injury in his major league career, but it’s a significant one. He joins a long list of prominent pitchers to have Tommy John surgery, including such Nationals as Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, Cade Cavalli, Lucas Giolito, Tanner Rainey and Mason Thompson.

The 26-year-old, one of the key prospects acquired from the Dodgers in the July 2021 trade of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, had a 5.02 ERA over 28 starts in his first full season in D.C. He followed that up with a breakthrough performance in 2023, finishing with a 3.91 ERA in 30 starts and getting recognized with the first All-Star selection of his career.

That earned Gray the Opening Day assignment this season, though he wound up making only two starts before reporting his injury, allowing 13 runs on 15 hits in only 8 1/3 innings.

Players still earn major league service time while on the IL, so Gray will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. He’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2027 season, so it’s possible the Nationals are guaranteed only two more full years of the right-hander before he has the ability to depart.