How important are these stats for pitching staffs?

The topic of the Orioles signing more groundball pitchers came up in the comments section of the blog yesterday. It is a topic worthy of discussion. The basic thinking states that ground balls are generally easier to turn into outs than fly balls and we have yet to see a hitter drive a grounder over the outfield fence.

It's guaranteed to keep the ball in the ballpark.

The pitcher we discussed here yesterday, O's lefty John Means, is not a groundball pitcher. His 2021 groundball rate of 32.9 was among the lowest on the O's staff. Of the 16 Baltimore pitchers that threw 30 or more innings last year, Means ranked 12th in that category, topping just four others.

But even in yielding fewer grounders and allowing more home runs last year than most, if Means had enough innings to qualify for the 2021 American League leaders, he would have ranked seventh in ERA and first in WHIP. Add a strong walk rate and great changeup to that and you could give me five or 10 more with Means' stat profile. I'll take the fly balls and homers to get that production and talent on the mound.

So I decided to look at some team stat categories from last year (American League only) and see if we could draw any conclusions. Spoiler alert: not so much, but it is still interesting to look at.

Here are the top five AL pitching staffs in groundball rate from last season and, in parentheses, where that team ranked in the league in team ERA:

44.7 - Houston (4)
44.5 - Los Angeles Angels (12) and Detroit (9)
44.2 - Boston (7)
43.0 - Toronto (5)

For what it is worth (probably not very much), adding up those five rankings of 4, 12, 9, 7 and 5 and you get a number of 37. We will compare that to others shortly.

The O's ranked last in the AL in 2021 in team groundball rate, at 39.7, and were last in team ERA at 5.85.

Here is a ranking of AL teams in homers to fly balls and their ERA ranks:

11.8 - Oakland (6)
12.1 - Seattle (8)
12.3 - Tampa Bay (1)
12.6 - Kansas City (11) and Boston (7)

Those five add up to 33. The Orioles were last in this category at 15.1. Meaning 15.1 percent of fly balls allowed by O's pitchers left the ballpark last season.

What about team batting average on balls in play? Here's a look:

.275 - Houston (4)
.281 - Tampa Bay (1)
.282 - Cleveland (10)
.284 - Toronto (5) and New York Yankees (3)

At .305, the Orioles tied for 13th in this stat in the AL. The five add up to 18. Just as a homer-to-fly-ball rate is impacted by ballpark size, for me BABIP is harder to get to the bottom of. It could be a function of a good defensive team while at the same time being impacted by quality of contact versus a pitching staff. The softer the contact, generally, the more balls that would be caught or turned into outs, helping lower BABIP.

Here is one last look at a stat, team leaders in strikeouts per nine innings:

10.18 - Chicago White Sox (2)
9.84 - New York Yankees (3)
9.68 - Boston (7)
9.40 - Toronto (5)
9.20 - Los Angeles (12)

The O's ranked 14th in the AL in strikeouts per nine at 7.92.

What can we conclude? Again, not very much at all. No one stat is the true key. It's probably about finding that well-rounded pitching staff. One capable of keeping the ball in the park while getting a lot of grounders and some swing-and-miss along the way. Sure that could work.

The top 45: FanGraphs.com released its ranking of the Orioles' top 45 prospects yesterday. You can click here for the list and the writeups on the players.

After reading a few of the writeups last night, I'd say it would be hard to find many outlets more bullish on the O's No. 1 prospect and baseball's No. 1 prospect, Adley Rutschman, and the O's No. 2, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.

Of Rutschman, FanGraphs states: "Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport."

The outlet says of Rodriguez, who gets three 70-grade pitches, that "there's very little not to love in terms of Rodriguez's present ability or future potential. Rodriguez will likely make his big league debut in 2022 and has the potential to be a No. 1 starter and Cy Young candidate."

So, yeah, pretty strong.

I also liked seeing Colton Cowser ranked as high as No. 4 and Drew Rom as high as No. 15. These two players had exceptional 2021 seasons.