Logjams forming at multiple levels in Orioles organization

Colton Cowser led off Thursday night’s game in Jacksonville by homering on the first pitch, the ball clocked at 110.3 mph off the bat and slamming off the back row of bleachers in right field before arcing back onto the warning track. Jumbo Shrimp outfielder Jerar Encarnación was forced to watch and retrieve.

Cowser led off the third inning with another home run, this time to the opposite field. His second left-on-left assault of the night.

He settled for a single into left field in his next at-bat. Going easy on ‘em.

An intentional walk in the seventh put the finishing touches on another monster game for Cowser, the fifth-overall draft pick in 2021. But this isn’t just about Cowser, who singled in his first two at-bats last night and drove in a run, and drew a walk in his next plate appearance. Many fists are rapping on the door that leads inside Camden Yards.

Many decisions are pending for the Orioles, who don’t feel rushed to make them.

They have the third-best record in baseball. The offense starts and stops, but the 198 runs scored rank seventh in the majors and the .756 OPS is eighth. The .336 on-base percentage is sixth, and only three teams have more stolen bases than their 38.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias spent part of Tuesday’s dugout media session talking about Cowser and how the outfielder, currently batting .320 with a 1.012 OPS, seven doubles, a triple, seven home runs, 27 RBIs and 31 walks, is impressing with his production, the walk/strikeout ratio, pretty much everything. But also, how he has limited Triple-A experience and, in so many words, isn’t walking through that Camden Yards door anytime soon.

“We gave him a taste at the end of last year,” Elias said. “We’re a month and change in. Everything that he’s doing is really encouraging. If he keeps this up, he’s going to put himself in a position to help this team. But I don’t think we’re at that moment in time yet where we can say that he’s graduated Triple-A. But we are constantly having internal discussions about all of those guys because they’re all performing.”

And then came a line that really stuck with me. Illustrating just how far this organization has progressed in creating the top farm system in baseball.

“We’ve got players in Double-A that are performing, too, that need to get to Triple-A, so these are good problems to sort out for us,” Elias said.

“I think as the season goes along, we’re going to see more and more of these guys.”

Ah yes, the guys in Bowie.

Norfolk’s infield is loaded like a Costco cart. Terrin Vavra received another promotion to the majors, but left behind were Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby. Westburg is the No. 4 prospect in the organization, per MLB Pipeline. Ortiz, who made three starts in Detroit before going back down, is seventh. Norby is eighth.

Vavra is at Camden Yards because Ramón Urías strained his left hamstring and is projected to be out two-to-three weeks. He could return to Norfolk after Urías regains full health, unless it’s first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn. Upcoming matchups have become a bigger influencer with the Orioles.

O’Hearn co-existed on the Tides roster with first baseman Lewin Díaz, who’s batting .318 with a .917 OPS in 32 games, and corner infielder/outfielder Josh Lester, whose eight home runs and 31 RBIs rank second to Westburg’s nine and 34.

These players could join hands and form a barricade for Bowie’s prospects.

César Prieto defected from Cuba and signed with the Orioles for $650,000 in January 2022. He tore up the high Single-A level with Aberdeen, batting .340/.381/.619 with six doubles and seven home runs in 25 games, but struggled at Bowie with a .255/.296/.348 line in 90 games. He also went 10-for-53 in the Arizona Fall League, though half of his hits were for extra bases.

Look at him now. Prieto had another multi-hit game last night and is batting .405 with a 1.017 OPS, eight doubles, a triple, three home runs, 12 RBIs and more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six) in 29 games with the Baysox. He’s only 24, and a large part of his appeal to the Orioles was the higher level of competition he faced before they brought him into their international draft class.  

He looked bigger and stronger in spring training. He looks like a much different Double-A player in 2023. And he’s eventually going to play for Norfolk, but it’s a crowded roster at the moment. And the Orioles tend to want younger players to thrive at a level for a significant stretch and accumulate a certain amount of plate appearances.

“I thought that his first full-season debut last year was better than I even expected, because in my experience and kind of the old scouting attitudes that I’ve always heard, the Cuban defectors will tend to take a year or so to adjust to playing United States baseball,” Elias said yesterday. “He really didn’t. He had a good season last year. Bowie was a taste for him and it was a challenge for him, but now he’s back there and, like any other prospect, gets more confidence. Same with Coby Mayo. They’re back, they know what it’s all about. A year older and wise, and a year better. So, he’s got that, but he’s also more comfortable being in the United States playing baseball now.

“I’m not surprised at the jump that he’s taking right now. I feel that Double-A is a very important level, so even though he’s dominating it at the moment, it’s not like I think he’s wasting his experience there right now. But certainly we’re thrilled with what he’s doing. We’re keeping an eye on it, and we’ll figure out a way to make room for him when the time’s right if that’s what it takes.

“It’s been great. He’s a really good kid. Likes being here. Wanted to be with us when we signed him. He had other offers, and I think it’s awesome to see what he’s doing. I’d love to get him up here.”

Speaking of Mayo, a third baseman at Bowie drafted in the fourth round in 2020, he was slashing .277/.419/.521 with nine doubles, a triple, four homers, 12 RBIs, 18 walks and 28 strikeouts in 27 games before going 0-for-4 last night. His raw power, which he flashed in camp, is remarkable. He won’t stay in the Eastern League for the entire summer.

The major league outfield is set with Austin Hays usually in left, last night's cycle achiever Cedric Mullins in center and Anthony Santander in right, with Ryan McKenna and Kyle Stowers the extras. Stowers is 2-for-26, and the Orioles eventually could decide to option him again, but the length of that leash isn’t common knowledge outside the organization.

The length of his mustache is no longer a topic because he shaved it, joking that it was time and had been day-to-day for about four weeks.

Cowser can’t come here and sit. The designated hitter spot is fluid, but it allows manager Brandon Hyde to get Adley Rutschman and James McCann in the same lineup against left-handers. If Cowser is promoted, it makes sense for him to receive consistent playing time.

We’ve seen the exceptions, with some prospects summoned to fill a short-term need. A sign that the 2023 Orioles won’t operate like the rebuilding version. But they’d really like to avoid messing with Cowser.

A level down from Norfolk is 2020 second-overall pick Heston Kjerstad, who was the Most Valuable Player in the Arizona Fall League and a beast in spring training, and is batting .302 with a 1.048 OPS, five doubles, three triples and nine home runs in 27 games. He’s destined to join Norfolk, and making room in the outfield is easier than the infield, but he hadn’t played above high Single-A until this year. There are plenty more at-bats coming to him in the Eastern League.

The Orioles have time to figure out how he fits on Norfolk’s roster. But there will come a time when the maneuvering is necessary.

It isn’t just about getting players from Norfolk to the Orioles.