More predictions of a poor season for the Orioles, plus other notes

We should certainly not be surprised anymore. But when some analysts released their lists of Major League Baseball power rankings for the 2016 season, they don't see the Orioles as very powerful.

The latest publication to predict a poor season for the Orioles is Sports Illustrated. In his first MLB power ranking of the 2016 season for SI.com, Jonah Keri has the Orioles rated No. 23 out of 30 teams.

As for the rest of the American League East, the prediction is No. 8 for Boston, No. 9 for Toronto, No. 12 for New York and No. 18 for Tampa Bay. That sounds like last place to me.

Here is the write-up on the Birds:

"After a decade and a half of futility, the Orioles have spent the past four seasons ranging from competent to excellent, consistently outperforming bearish projection systems. Some credit Buck Showalter's managing acumen, others excellent bullpen work, and analytical types often cite random variance, aka dumb luck. But the O's head into 2016 with a leaky starting rotation and multiple lineup questions around young star Manny Machado. They'll also face a set of tough division rivals, with even the low-budget Rays making improvements. Baltimore might be headed back to the cellar in 2016."

Of course, when you have missed on previous projections, it does sound nicer to say the Orioles outperformed them or that random variance - a.k.a. dumb luck - was at work.

I think players should starting using such excuses when they have a bad day. If we ask a pitcher why he gave up six runs over just 3 2/3 innings, he should be able to tell us that his opponent "outperformed his expectations and also random variance was at work out there this afternoon."

The Orioles fared two whole spots better a couple of weeks ago when USA Today came out with its first power poll. They ranked the AL East teams this way: Toronto (8), Boston (11), New York (14), Tampa Bay (17) and the Orioles (21).

Hey, at least the online sportsbook Bovada doesn't have the O's last in their odds to win the AL East:

8/5 - Boston
7/4 - Toronto
7/2 - New York
15/2 - Orioles
9/1 - Tampa Bay

Here is a reminder of the PECOTA projections for AL East wins this year:

91 - Tampa Bay
88 - Boston
86 - Toronto
85 - New York
72 - Orioles

Are the Orioles really a last-place team that could win only 72 games? At least no one I've seen has predicted a win total in the 60s yet. If the O's are bad this year, there will be plenty of analysts and those with power rankings that can say I told you so.

If they turn out to be pretty good, they won't have to say they were wrong. Random variance could yet again turn out to be the Orioles' friend in 2016.

Around the AL East: Here are a few links around the division. Former O's prospect Eduardo Rodriguez of the Boston Red Sox is dealing with a right knee injury and will be reevaluated soon. Rodriguez dealt with a knee injury with Double-A Bowie early in the 2014 season. That was the season where the O's sent him to Boston for reliever Andrew Miller at the trade deadline.

New York right-hander Ivan Nova is fine after being struck by a batted ball during batting practice on Sunday. Nova may wind up in the bullpen when the season starts in April.

After adding Steve Pearce and Corey Dickerson, there have been rumblings that Tampa Bay could trade either James Loney or Desmond Jennings. But club president of baseball operations Matt Silverman said, "We don't need to move anybody."

Toronto sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will both be free agents at the end of the 2016 season. Will the team be able to sign one or both to long-term contracts? Encarnacion said he hopes contract talks that will keep him with the Blue Jays heat up soon.