Nats need to find more success with late first-round picks

The Nationals built a contender - and ultimately, a World Series champion - on the strength of an impressive run of first-round draft picks who developed into superstars.

Ryan Zimmerman. Stephen Strasburg. Anthony Rendon. Bryce Harper and Drew Storen (aside from the champion part). All were top-10 selections during the Nats' first seven drafts. All had a hand in the franchise's ascension. The first three had a major hand in the franchise's title run.

But if they want to continue this run of excellence and remain a consistent championship contender for many more years to come, the Nats are going to have to start finding more success with their first-round picks, even when those picks come much later in the round.

The Nationals have been too good for too long now to merit a top-10 pick. They haven't held a draft position higher than 16th in any of the last nine years, and their average draft slot during that time has been 22nd.

Which, it just so happens, is where they'll be picking tonight.

Look, amateur baseball scouting is a tough business, tougher than in any other major sport. There are way more misses than hits. And it's especially true when you're picking in the second half of each round.

But good, even great, players can and are drafted late in the first round. And consistently successful franchises have proven they can find future stars when picking in the 20s.

The Cardinals haven't held a pick higher than 19th in the last decade. They've still managed to draft and develop Michael Wacha (19th), Kolten Wong (22nd), Jack Flaherty (34th), Dakota Hudson (34th) and Steven Piscotty (36th).

The Dodgers have drafted Corey Seager (18th) and Walker Buehler (24th). The Yankees used the 32nd pick in 2013 to draft Aaron Judge.

What about the Nationals? Well, they've had less to brag about. Only three of their last seven first-round picks have reached the big leagues to date, and only one of them (Lucas Giolito) has produced more than 1.0 WAR so far. (And Giolito has done that since being traded to the White Sox.)

Erick Fedde (0.7 career WAR) and Carter Kieboom (-1.0 WAR) still have time to realize their full potential, especially Kieboom. And it's not fair to judge the club's last two first-rounders (Mason Denaburg, Jackson Rutledge) yet, because their minor league careers are still in their infancies (and almost certainly won't get the chance to even continue until at least 2021 because of the pandemic).

There are two others on the list. Dane Dunning (29th pick in 2016) was also dealt to the White Sox (with Giolito and Reynaldo López) for Adam Eaton and missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, Seth Romero (25th pick in 2017) has been an undisputed bust to date, having thrown only 47 1/3 professional innings due to disciplinary and injury reasons.

The Nationals don't need all of these draft picks to develop into reliable major leaguers, but they do need some of them to do it. They've been aided by some long-awaited success stories to come out of their once-paltry Latin American system, with Juan Soto and Victor Robles now key members of a championship roster and Luis Garcia knocking on the door to join them someday soon.

But after losing Harper and Rendon to free agency the last two winters, and with more core members of the 2019 team headed for free agency or retirement in the coming years, there's going to be an increased need to develop replacements from within the system.

Mike Rizzo is really banking on Kieboom being the real deal to help offset the loss of Rendon. We don't know yet whether the young infielder will make good.

The organization also desperately needs to identify its next frontline starting pitcher. Max Scherzer only has so many years left in his arm. And who knows how Strasburg and Patrick Corbin will perform as they move into their mid-30s. Joe Ross, Austin Voth and Fedde are adequate back-of-the-rotation guys for now, but none profiles as a future ace. The Nationals need Denaburg or Rutledge to join the bunch a few years from now.

And they need to make the right choice with tonight's No. 22 pick, whoever he is. History strongly suggests it will be another pitcher (six of their last seven first-round picks have been, with Kieboom the lone position player in the group).

No, the Nationals can't be held as accountable as the teams picking first and second tonight (the Tigers and Orioles), who flat-out can't get those picks wrong.

But if they keep winning, they're not going to be picking anywhere near the top 10. Which means they're going to have to start finding more future big league regulars in the 20s.