Now a free agent, will O's bring back Chris Tillman?

It was a terrible year for right-hander Chris Tillman last season. But from 2012 through 2016, he was a very solid starter for the Orioles and they won a great percentage of his starts.

It seems that five-year track record could be a big boost as Tillman hits free agency now. Even though he was one of the worst starters in the majors in 2017, yesterday MLBTradeRumors.com predicted that Tillman would sign a one-year deal for $10 million with the Tigers. He was ranked No. 47 on their projection of the top 50 free agents. Tillman's 2016 salary via arbitration was $6.225 million and it elevated to $10.05 million last season. It is a surprise to me that he could be in line for the same number next season. I assumed he would have to sign for less. We'll see if it plays out that way. Click here for MLBTR's top 50 free agent predictions.

Over the five-year stretch from 2012-2016, Tillman went 65-33 with an ERA of 3.81. He had four strong seasons and one mediocre one in 2015. He pitched 170 innings or more four times with an ERA of 3.77 or less four times.

In the 2016 season, Tillman went 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA. Over 172 innings, he allowed 155 hits with 66 walks, 140 strikeouts and a .244 batting average against. He made 30 starts and the Orioles went 22-8 in those games. They won 73 percent of Tillman's starts.

In fact, from 2012 through 2016, the Orioles had a winning percentage of .643 (92-51) in Tillman starts. That greatly exceeded the team's overall win percentage of .548 in that span and ranked fourth-best in the majors. A team with a .643 winning percentage for a full year would have 104 victories. This was indeed a very solid five-season track record.

But Tillman had some shoulder issues late in 2016, began this season on the disabled list with right shoulder bursitis and wasn't activated until May 7. We didn't know it that night, but his win against the White Sox in his season debut would be his only one in 24 games, which included 19 starts.

The Orioles' opening day starter three straight years from 2014-2016, Tillman went 1-7 with an ERA of 7.84. He allowed 12.1 hits per nine innings, 2.3 homers per nine innings, 4.9 walks per nine innings and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Too many walks, too many hits allowed, too many longballs. He went 0-3 with an 8.69 ERA in 10 games versus American League East teams. And his WHIP was a staggering 1.892.

Tillman's average velocity on his four-seam fastball was 92.6 mph in 2015, 92.9 mph in 2016 and 91.2 mph last season. His two-seamer in that time went from 92.1 to 92.7 to 90.9 mph.

Per BrooksBaseball.net stats, opposing batters cleaned up on Tillman's fastball in 2017, batting .316 when putting his four-seamer in play and .408 off the two-seamer. He allowed a .265 average on his cut fastball, but that was up from .202 the previous season. Batters hit .478 off Tillman's curveball after batting .217 off the pitch in 2016. Ouch.

But the projection is that Tillman still could garner $10 million next season. Perhaps if a team is sold that Tillman is completely healthy, it is a gamble worth taking based on five years of mostly success leading into 2017.

Is it a gamble worth taking for the Orioles?

Meanwhile, the same article ranked free agent right-hander Lance Lynn as the No. 9 free agent and predicted he'd sign a four-year deal for $56 million with Texas. Right-hander Alex Cobb was ranked 11th with a prediction of a four-year deal worth $48 million with Minnesota. In a recent discussion in the comments section one day, my own guess for both pitchers were deals in the four-year and $60 million range. I would be surprised if both sign for the predicted numbers, but that would seem to bring both pitchers into a potential comfort range for the Orioles.

We discussed both of those pitchers here.