O's hope for Eflin: Repeat what they saw in his nine starts

With Grayson Rodriguez returning next year after what turned out to be a season-ending injury in 2024 and with Corbin Burnes possibly leaving via free agency, the one man standing alone atop the Baltimore rotation right now is 30-year-old right-hander Zach Eflin, a veteran of nine seasons with three teams who has made 174 career starts.

Eflin, under contract next year for $18 million, is easily the O’s current highest-paid player. That could change but right now he’s No. 1.

The O’s picked up that tab for next season on July 26 last summer when they completed the trade with Tampa Bay to acquire Eflin and gave up three top 30 prospects in Jackson Baumeister, and position players Mac Horvath and Matthew Etzel.

In 28 starts between the Rays and Orioles in 2024, he went 10-9 with a 3.59 ERA over 165 1/3 innings. He had a 1.149 WHIP allowing just 1.3 walks per nine with 7.3 strikeouts. His 3.5 percent walk rate ranked in the top two percent of MLB.

Eflin sure showed his strong command and control during his first eight of nine regular season starts for the Orioles, allowing no walks or one. He then walked five in 4 2/3 in his last regular season outing versus the Yankees.

But the guy pitched quite well as an Oriole, providing hope for what he can offer the club in 2025. In nine O’s starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA as the Orioles went 7-2 in those games. He gave up two earned runs or less six times, had quality starts seven times and went seven innings two times.

No one is saying Eflin is the equal of Burnes, but he held his own with him over the last two seasons, a stretch where they have nearly identical won-loss records and WHIP numbers.

In that two-season, 2023-2024 span, Eflin has made 59 starts, going 26-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.085 WHIP. In the same two-season span, Burnes has gone 25-17 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP.

Eflin was sixth for the 2023 AL Cy Young Award. Burnes was fifth this year. Eflin walked 1.3 per nine with 8.4 strikeouts while Burnes walked 2.6 and fanned 8.8.

One stat that was poor for Eflin in 2024 were his numbers when he faced a lineup the third time through the batting order. He allowed an OPS of just .647 first time through the lineup and .605 the second time. But his average against was .347 and OPS against .870 the third time through. That might be the key reason he was lifted in Game 2 of the playoffs versus Kansas City after four innings, allowing one run at 75 pitches. The Royals were about to turn the lineup over for the third time and manager Brandon Hyde went to lefty reliever Danny Coulombe.

But as the O's search for starting pitching help this winter, they at least know Eflin's spot in their starting five looks solid.