Orioles' remaining roster decisions, lineup possibilities and some predictions

The Orioles couldn’t play baseball yesterday because of the rain in D.C. In hindsight, it wasn’t worth rushing out of North Port on Sunday.

Grayson Rodriguez did some long tossing in the outfield at Nationals Park. Cade Povich told the assembled media that he hasn’t decided between Billy Joel’s “Piano Man” and Eminem’s “The Real Slim Shady” for his walk-in song. The roster held at 41 players after the Orioles selected Matt Bowman’s contract over the weekend and put Tyler Wells on the 60-day injured list, then shrank to 36 after Kyle Gibson was optioned to minor league camp yesterday and Maverick Handley, Vimael Machín, Emmanuel Rivera and Luis Vázquez were reassigned.

The two questions hanging heavy in the damp air remained whether Jorge Mateo replaces Gunnar Henderson and which reliever replaces Andrew Kittredge.

Mateo went from a “no” to “pretty doubtful” to a real possibility for Opening Day. The Orioles won’t bring him to Toronto if they think he needs more swings in Sarasota or if he isn’t ready physically, but the fact that they’re giving him heavy doses of at-bats the next two days is a positive sign. Of course, they’re doing the same with Henderson, but that’s more about limiting how much time he spends on the IL.

Livan Soto remained the favorite if Mateo isn’t on the roster. Machín and Vázquez also were exceptional in camp and they’d have guaranteed jobs in past years when the Orioles weren’t as deep and talented.

Bowman’s return to the 40-man roster doesn’t guarantee that he’s introduced at Rogers Centre. He could be in the bullpen, traded or designated for assignment. If clearing waivers, he could decline an outright assignment and return to free agency. And the Orioles could make a late trade or waiver claim for a reliever.

Bryan Baker and Roansy Contreras also are out of minor league options. Baker would seem to have the edge in that battle, but Bowman is the wild card. And there isn’t room for more than one after the Orioles announced that Félix Bautista would be on the Opening Day roster and Albert Suárez would be a reliever.

As I wrote yesterday, the camp roster will go down to 31 after Henderson, Rodriguez, Kittredge, Trevor Rogers and Chayce McDermott are placed on the injured list. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, both on the 60-day IL, will be removed. At least two more cuts come among Bowman, Baker and Contreras. Mateo or Soto will be removed.

On another subject …

Jordan Westburg has hit leadoff six times in his career. He did it multiple times this spring, including Friday night against Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.

Henderson is supposed to occupy the top spot but he’s going to miss a minimum of six games. Cedric Mullins has batted first in Henderson’s absence - keep in mind that spring training orders can’t be taken too seriously - but he isn’t going to lead the pack against left-handers.

We should find out whether it’s Westburg when the Red Sox come to town for the first home series and Garrett Crochet starts.

Could a right-handed heavy lineup look something like this?

Jordan Westburg 2B
Adley Rutschman DH
Tyler O’Neill RF
Ryan Mountcastle 1B (bring on the Jays)
Colton Cowser LF
Gary Sánchez C
Ramón Urías 3B
Ramón Laureano CF
Jackson Holliday SS

This is assuming that Westburg isn’t at third and Urías at second. And Cowser isn’t in center and Laureano in a corner. And O’Neill isn’t in left and Cowser in right. And Cowser and Sánchez don’t flip-flop to get a right-handed bat in the fifth spot. And Mateo, if on the active roster, doesn’t get the start over Holliday.

Westburg was supposed to start at second again yesterday and Urías at third. This arrangement seems to be the preference.

The O’Neill signing led to an assumption that he’d be the new right fielder as Anthony Santander’s replacement, but he kept moving back and forth in Florida.

“I haven’t talked to Brandon (Hyde) too much about what that’s going to look like,” O’Neill said early in camp. “I’m just trying to get my work in right now and get my feet under me, but availability-wise, I can do whatever he asks me to do. Just want to be able to contribute best I can to this team.”

Holliday isn’t a platoon player. He should be in the lineup most days and nights. But having Henderson on the injured list opens the door more widely for someone like Mateo or Soto if he’s on the roster.

The Orioles surprised us last spring by making Henderson the full-time shortstop, which left second base for Holliday. Henderson surprised us this spring by straining his intercostal, which had Holliday working out and starting at both positions.

“I think, luckily, I had enough experience last year at second to where if I go over to short and go back, it feels a whole lot more comfortable versus playing short and just kind of going over there,” Holliday said.

“I don’t think you can ever say you’re exactly ready to play shortstop every day in the big leagues, but I think I’ve got a good kind of understanding of what needs to be done. Trying to make all the routine plays and let everything take care of itself. It was good to be able to play over there just in case for the last two weeks or so, and I think playing shortstop makes second base a whole lot easier, personally. So I think I’m in a good spot.”

He's also going to be on his first Opening Day roster.

“It would be pretty surreal,” he said. “I know last year during playoffs, getting to run out on the field, obviously I didn’t play, but that environment and that experience was awesome. And going to Cardinals Opening Days for so long (with father Matt), you’ve got all the horses out there and the guys in the cars, so I’m excited for hopefully a Baltimore Opening Day. But yeah, it would be awesome, surreal.”

Cowser would have batted first yesterday against right-hander Jake Irvin. He’s hit leadoff 24 times in his brief career and is the most likely choice while Henderson is out. But it isn’t hard to envision Holliday in that role as he keeps maturing at the plate, especially with his green light on the bases.

Rutschman should bat second no matter who’s on the mound, but there’s always the argument to lower him into “a more run-producing spot.” The guess here is that O’Neill stays in the third spot when he’s in the lineup, but let’s not forget about Heston Kjerstad. He’s got to play, the Orioles are vowing to give him a lot more at-bats, and it’s going to happen against right-handers.

But not every day.

Let’s take this lineup for a spin against right-handed pitching:

Colton Cowser LF/RF
Adley Rutschman C
Tyler O’Neill RF/LF
Ryan O’Hearn DH
Ryan Mountcastle 1B
Jordan Westburg 2B/3B
Cedric Mullins CF
Ramón Urías 3B/2B
Jackson Holliday SS

O’Hearn began to heat up at the plate as the boxes were packed for shipping out of Sarasota, but he isn’t cemented into the cleanup spot for an entire season. That’s just how it projects at the moment.

On another subject …

I’m predicting that Rutschman is voted Most Valuable Oriole. Tomoyuki Sugano is the favorite for top Orioles rookie because, and this is the result of a deep dive and some heavy analysis, he’s the only rookie projected to make the club.

Of course, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo could join the team later and make a run at the honor – Mayo would likely beat Basallo to Baltimore – but I’m going with someone from the current roster.

The breakout star candidates for me are Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad and Povich. I’m stuck at four. Cowser might seem out of place here after being runner-up for Rookie of the Year in the American League and finishing first in Players Association voting, but there’s still room to break out. Let's go with him.

I’ll set the win total at 91 again and take the “over” if pressed. That could be enough to claim the division. As always, it comes down to starting pitching. The Orioles don’t have a true No. 1 starter, but refer back to 2023 for proof that it isn’t a prerequisite. Bautista is back and his velocity will tick up. The bigger issue is losing Kittredge for at least a few months after left knee surgery and being unsure about Seranthony Domínguez, who allowed 13 runs and 15 hits in six spring innings and had yesterday’s scheduled appearance washed away.

Domínguez is a backup closer and one of the first in line to set up. He’s got to be good.

Left-handers hit .290/.355/.459 against Yennier Cano in his career, including .286/.341/.494 last season. They hit .220/.295/.440 against Domínguez last summer between the Phillies and Orioles. He can be a more favorable matchup when he’s right, so to speak, and his results in camp could at least partially be blamed on working batters differently in exhibition games.