Some Chris Davis and 40-man roster talk

Are the Orioles facing a possible either/or scenario with first baseman Chris Davis? Are they looking at a situation where they can either sign him, or not sign him and add two or more players with that money?

Recently, we looked at an early projection for an Orioles 2015 payroll. With the club looking for starting pitching and outfield help, not to mention possibly re-signing Davis and maybe more of their own free agents, it seems it will be hard to do all of that and still keep the payroll in the range it has been in the last few years.

So does that bring them to a tough decision on Davis? They could offer him a long-term deal at an average annual value of, say, $22 to $25 million per season. Or maybe they spread that amount over two or three players. Would that be the better play here?

There is risk in signing any player long-term: an injury or a player's performance declining during the life of the contract. So does that mean there would be less risk in spreading those dollars to two or three players? Would the club get more help with multiple players rather than a huge investment in just one?

Meanwhile, later today the Orioles must set their 40-man roster in advance of the Dec. 10 Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings. Players added to the 40-man today cannot be taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft. It was around this time last season when the Orioles added four pitchers from their farm system to the 40-man: Oliver Drake, Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson and Eddie Gamboa. They did not add Mychal Givens. He could have been taken by any team in last year's Rule 5 draft, but was not selected.

Today, the most likely O's minor leaguer to get added looks like left-handed pitcher Chris Lee. The Orioles acquired him May 18 in a trade with Houston, the club that drafted him in the fourth round in 2011. Lee throws a fastball that showed velocity gains this year and touches the mid-90s.

Lee, who turned 23 in August, went 3-6 with a 3.07 ERA in 14 starts with Single-A Frederick after the trade and went 4-2 with a 3.08 ERA in seven starts for Double-A Bowie. He should start next season in the Bowie rotation with a chance to move up to Triple-A.

Among some others the organization could take a hard look at adding to the 40-man are left-handed pitcher Ashur Tolliver and right-handers Parker Bridwell and Andrew Triggs.

Tolliver, who will be 28 by opening day, went 1-2 with an ERA of 2.91 out of the Bowie bullpen. In 58 2/3 innings, he walked 29 and fanned 61.

Bridwell went 4-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 18 starts at Bowie this year. The 24-year-old Bridwell saw his 2015 season ended a month early due to elbow tendinitis. He had a platelet-rich plasma injection, resumed throwing, felt good and is expected to be fine for spring training.

Triggs, who pitches from a low three-quarters arm slot and can touch the low 90s, went 0-2 with an ERA of 1.03 and 17 saves in 17 chances for Bowie. In 61 innings, he walked 11 and fanned 70. The 26-year-old was drafted in Round 19 by Kansas City in 2012 out of USC. Triggs was a Double-A Texas League All-Star in 2014 when he led the league with 19 saves.

With Darren O'Day potentially leaving the Orioles, I think Triggs' chances to get added to the 40-man have increased. We know how Buck Showalter likes relievers that throw from unique arm slots.

I predict that Lee is most likely to get added today followed by Triggs, Bridwell and Tolliver. There are certainly others the club could be looking at. This is just my best guess at four candidates. It it worth noting that several key minor league players don't yet have enough service time and cannot be taken in the Rule 5 - a list that would include players like Trey Mancini, Chance Sisco and Jomar Reyes. So they do not yet need to be added to the 40-man.

Going into today, the Orioles have 37 players on their 40-man roster.