The Nationals’ best hope for significant improvement in 2023 is through a significantly improved rotation. It’s really as simple as that.

The 2022 Nats rotation was awful. That group’s 5.97 ERA didn’t just rank last in the majors, it ranked last in club history. By leaps and bounds.

Only three previous times had the Nationals ended a season with a rotation ERA over 5.00: In 2006 (5.37), 2007 (5.11) and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign (5.38). Davey Martinez and Jim Hickey would’ve killed to get those kind of numbers last season, which tells you just how bad things were.

The organization, though, believes it is ready to take a big step forward in starting pitching. That belief is based in the hope that three young building blocks (MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Josiah Gray) are ready to lead the way, taking pressure off Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg to have to hold those responsibilities anymore. The offseason addition of right-hander Trevor Williams, in theory, should provide some stability at the back of the rotation.

It all sounds good on paper, but what are the odds it will play out as hoped in reality?

Baseball America unveiled its Top 100 Prospects list for the start of the 2023 season Wednesday, and there’s good news: The Nationals not only had four players make the list, they had four players make the top 61.

Outfielder James Wood leads the way at No. 11. Robert Hassell III (57), Elijah Green (58) and Cade Cavalli (61) are all bunched together farther down the list.

That’s a nice development for the Nats, and evidence of the influx of talent they’ve had in what used to be one of baseball’s worst farm systems. Three of those four players, of course, weren’t even in the organization one year ago at this time. Wood and Hassell came from the Padres in the Juan Soto-Josh Bell blockbuster trade. Green was the No. 5 overall pick in last summer’s draft.

And when you add two young players who were highly rated entering the 2022 season but now are full-time major leaguers (CJ Abrams, No. 9; Keibert Ruiz, No. 11), it further underscores just how far the Nationals have come in the last 18 months.

Which isn’t to say they’re anywhere close to achieving what they ultimately need to achieve.

The Nationals were bad last year, but you already know that. They want to be better this year, and you probably do, too.

But will they be better? That’s what we’re attempting to predict the last two days.

Though there’s still a month to go until spring training, and more additions or subtractions are possible, the Nats have already assembled what looks like it could be their Opening Day roster. So it’s not too early for this exercise.

We looked at position players yesterday, running through each of the positions (included designated hitter). Today, we look at the pitching staff, running through each slot in the rotation, plus multiple bullpen roles. Will the 2023 Nationals be better, worse or the same as the 2022 Nationals? Here we go …

NO. 1 STARTER: Slightly better, you have to hope
Who was the Nationals’ No. 1 starter last year? Patrick Corbin started Opening Day and threw the most innings. Josiah Gray led the staff in wins and strikeouts. Aníbal Sánchez (?!) led the starters in WAR. Point is, they don’t have a No. 1 guy, not yet. So for these purposes, we’ll go with Corbin and just look at how he may fare in 2023 vs. 2022. Enough has been said and written about the left-hander, who has steadily devolved over the last three seasons into the worst starter in baseball. He’s not going anywhere, not with two years still left on his contract. So, can he be better than 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP? You sure hope so, don’t you? Nobody’s going to suggest he can return to his elite 2019 form anymore. But it is fair to think he could become somewhat more respectable, and the main reason for that would be better defense behind him. His 4.83 FIP last season suggests he wasn’t solely to blame for his wretched numbers. Let’s see if an entire year of CJ Abrams at shortstop might actually bring Corbin’s ERA down under 5.00, which would have to be considered a major win.

The Nationals were bad last year, but you already know that. They want to be better this year, and you probably do, too.

But will they be better? That’s what we’re going to attempt to predict the next two days.

Though there’s still a month to go until spring training, and more additions or subtractions are possible, the Nats have already assembled what looks like it could be their Opening Day roster. So, it’s not too early for this exercise.

We’ll look at position players today, running through each of the positions (included designated hitter). Then we’ll look at the pitching staff tomorrow. Will the 2023 Nationals be better, worse or the same as the 2022 Nationals? Here we go …

CATCHER: Moderately better
As a group, Nationals catchers posted a .223/.286/.330 offensive slash last season, with 26 doubles, 12 homers and 48 RBIs. Keibert Ruiz (.249/.313/.361) was better than that, and there’s good reason to believe he’ll improve as a hitter in his second full big league season. The Nats would love for his power production, in particular, to improve. Defensively, Ruiz already is solid, but there’s also room for improvement there with experience. The real issue comes on days when he doesn’t start. The team’s backup catchers were really bad last season, with Riley Adams, Tres Barrera and Israel Pineda batting a collective .198/.233/.273 over 215 plate appearances. Somebody from that group is going to have to be better this year.

One month from now, Nationals pitchers and catchers will be on the back fields in West Palm Beach, Fla., with position players soon to join them. Hard to believe, right?

Though they haven't been making major news, the Nats have been making some news the last few weeks, from the signings of Dominic Smith and Corey Dickerson to the designating of Andres Machado for assignment, to the signings of five of their six arbitration-eligible players (all but Victor Robles). Oh, yeah, and then there's the whole ownership situation. Can't forget about that.

Let's take an opportunity this morning to take your questions on all things Nationals-related. If you have something you'd like to ask, please submit it in the comments section below. Then check back throughout the morning for my replies ...

The international signing period officially opened this morning, an avenue the Nationals have been traditionally successful in using to acquire young talent.

To open the 2023 signing period, the Nationals announced they have agreed to terms with 14 international free agents: right-handers Jose Feliz, Leuris Portorreal and Enyerber Riveo; left-hander Juan Reyes; catcher Agustin Marcano; infielders Manuel Cabrera, Eikel Joaquin and Edwin Solano; and outfielders Andy Acevedo, Carlos Batista, Hector Liriano, Juan Obispo, Elian Soto and Carlos Tavares.

Elian Soto is Juan Soto’s younger brother who made headlines this time last year when he reportedly flipped his intention to sign with the Mets to the Nats. That became official today as he reportedly agreed to a deal worth a $225,000 signing bonus and an additional $200,000 for a scholarship grant. Last summer’s trade with the Padres seemingly did not have an impact on the younger Soto’s feelings toward signing with the Nationals organization.

Like his brother, Elian demonstrates power from the left side of the plate while playing third base and the outfield. Also like Juan, Elian is represented by super agent Scott Boras, who just negotiated a $23 million salary for the 24-year-old superstar this season with the Padres through the arbitration process.

But unlike his brother, Elian is not considered a top prospect in this class.

Less than one year ago, Victor Robles and the Nationals were unable to come to terms on a salary figure for the 2022 season, so the two sides filed for arbitration. This was after the lockout-delayed spring training had begun, creating a very narrow window for negotiations and for a hearing to be scheduled.

The disparity between the two sides’ official arbitration filings ($500,000) wasn’t nothing. Robles was seeking $2.1 million, while the Nats countered at $1.6 million. He was the team’s only arbitration-eligible player who didn’t sign before the deadline.

But as so often is the case in these matters, they did ultimately agree to a deal before ever setting foot in an arbitration hearing. Twelve days later, just as camp was about to wrap up, Robles and the Nationals agreed to a one-year, $1.65 million contract.

That’s right, Robles accepted an amount that was only $50,000 greater than the team’s official arbitration offer.

It was with that prior negotiation in mind that the two sides once again were unable to work out a deal prior to this year’s deadline, which came Friday night. So once again, Robles was the Nationals’ lone arbitration-eligible player who did not come to terms in time and was forced to submit a formal offer to the league.

Corey Dickerson is the latest veteran to sign with the Nationals. And he brings the most experience.

While Jeimer Candelario (29 years old), Trevor Williams (30) and Dominic Smith (27) have played seven, seven and six major league seasons, respectively, Dickerson, 33, is entering his 11th season in the bigs, now with his eighth different club.

Unlike the Nats’ other three major league signings this offseason, Dickerson isn’t looking to kickstart his career for the long run with a fresh start on a new team. He’s more out to show that he can still play.

A former All-Star and Gold Glove Award winner, Dickerson, who has spent time with the Rockies, Rays, Pirates, Phillies, Marlins, Blue Jays and Cardinals, says he still has something to prove to the baseball world.

“That I'm a good baseball player,” Dickerson said when asked what he wants to prove this year. He spoke via Zoom with reporters after signing a one-year, $2.25 million deal with the Nats on Tuesday. “That I can do more than just one thing. I think I can still hit for power. A lot of people have written me off with that. … I still think I can hit for power, I can do many things well.”

It's deadline day for all major leaguers with more than three years and fewer than six years of service time to agree to terms with their clubs on 2023 salaries or else file for arbitration. The Nationals have six unsigned players facing today's deadline: Victor Robles, Kyle Finnegan, Lane Thomas, Carl Edwards Jr., Victor Arano and Hunter Harvey.

Bobby Blanco and I will be keeping track of any deals that come together over the course of the day, so check back for updates along the way ...

* Harvey is the first player to sign. The Nationals announced the right-hander has agreed to terms on his 2023 contract, avoiding arbitration. We don't have numbers yet, but MLB Trade Rumors projected a $1 million salary for him in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Harvey, 28, had something of a breakthrough season out of the Nats bullpen after years of injuries with the Orioles. He did miss several months with an elbow strain, but he returned strong and finished the season healthy, with a 2.52 ERA and 1.144 WHIP, striking out 45 batters in 39 1/3 innings. He should enter the season at worst as the Nationals' seventh inning reliever, setting up Edwards and Finnegan.

* Next up is Edwards, who has avoided arbitration with his own one-year deal. The Washington Post reports he'll earn $2.25 million, which is a nice bump from his league minimum salary last season after he joined the club on a minor league deal. The 31-year-old right-hander was a revelation, producing a 2.76 ERA and 1.226 WHIP over 57 appearances, his best season since 2018 with the Cubs.

It’s another deadline day across Major League Baseball, this one for all arbitration-eligible players to either agree to terms on their 2023 salaries or exchange figures with their clubs and file for an arbitration hearing.

How does that work? This applies only to players with more than three years but fewer than six years of big league service time. (There are also a group of players with fewer than three years who qualify early for arbitration, the so-called “Super Two” players, but the Nationals have nobody in that category this year.)

These players don’t have the right to become free agents yet, but they do have the right to negotiate their salaries. It’s up to them and their teams to find common ground and agree to a dollar amount. If they can’t, each side submits an offer, then a hearing is set for February, at which time a three-judge panel will pick a winner and declare the player’s salary.

A couple of things that are important to remember: 1) If a player doesn’t agree to terms today, that doesn’t mean he’s no longer under contract. He’ll still be part of the team this season, it’s just going to take a while longer to determine his salary. 2) Players and teams who don’t strike a deal today must file for arbitration, but they’re still free to continue negotiating up until the hearing and could still work something out before ever appearing before the panel. This is actually quite common.

So, which players does this apply to? The Nationals have 10 players with three to six years of service time, but four of them have already agreed to 2023 salaries, either because they were cut loose by other organizations and signed as free agents (Jeimer Candelario, $5 million; Dominic Smith, $2 million) or because they negotiated deals prior to today’s deadline (Tanner Rainey, $1.5 million; Ildemaro Vargas, $975,000).

Though there’s still time for more additions before pitchers and catchers report to West Palm Beach – in a mere five weeks, by the way – the Nationals have now assembled what could be their Opening Day 2023 lineup.

They entered the offseason with three holes to fill: Third base, left field and either first base or designated hitter. In Jeimer Candelario, Corey Dickerson and Dominic Smith, they’re hoping they have adequately addressed those needs while constrained to a very tight budget. Those three free agents have a combined $9.25 million salary for the upcoming season, less than Josh Bell alone made last year.

Will that be enough? We’ll see. The success of the Nationals lineup may have less to do with those players’ performances than the performances of returning regulars Joey Meneses, Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams and Luis García.

But this is what Davey Martinez has to work with now. The question is how best to arrange this lineup.

Based on what Martinez did late last season, what he’s said this offseason and what’s now available to him, here’s one possible (probable?) batting order for Opening Day …

Corey Dickerson’s major league debut came June 22, 2013, when the then-24-year-old started in right field and batted sixth for the Rockies on a Saturday afternoon in Washington. He doubled twice, helped his team to a 7-1 victory and thought to himself: “This is a nice ballpark.”

“I remember like it was yesterday,” Dickerson said Tuesday, nearly a decade later. “It was amazing. I still remember that first at-bat and just walking out on the field for the first time. I felt like this is what the big leagues is all about. I always remember the Nats’ stadium because of that.”

Dickerson will get a chance to make some new memories at Nationals Park this season, his winding career having now brought him to D.C. as a member of the home team after stops in Colorado, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Miami, Toronto and St. Louis. Now 33, he signed a one-year, $2.25 million deal with the Nats on Tuesday and figures to open the season as their starting left fielder, playing mostly against right-handed pitching.

It’s been a winding path for Dickerson, not only in the stops he’s made but in the different types of player he’s been along the way. He mashed 24-plus homers in three different seasons early in his career. He won a Gold Glove Award in 2018. He hit .304 with a .906 OPS in 2019. Then while battling injuries and reduced playing time, he focused more on being a good contact hitter in recent years.

Some might look down upon a guy who has worn seven different uniforms the last seven seasons. Dickerson, though, doesn’t view it as a negative.

The Nationals are finalizing a one-year deal with veteran Corey Dickerson, a source familiar with the negotiations confirmed, addressing another pressing need in left field.

The deal with Dickerson, which includes a $2.25 million salary plus incentives, is contingent upon the 33-year-old passing a physical, the source said.

Once it’s finalized, the Nationals will have some more clarity about the makeup of a 2023 lineup that will look quite different from the one they fielded last season. If Dickerson is the primary left fielder, Joey Meneses would likely serve as the primary designated hitter, with the newly signed Dominic Smith at first base. Jeimer Candelario, another new addition this winter, is expected to start at third base.

Even if Dickerson is the Nats’ primary left fielder, he probably won’t play every day, given his longstanding struggles against left-handed pitching. Over his career, the lefty-hitting outfielder owns a .287/.331/.505 offensive slash line against right-handers, compared to .259/.299/.394 against left-handers. The disparity was even greater last season in St. Louis, where Dickerson took only 28 plate appearances vs. lefties and went 2-for-26.

An All-Star with the Rays in 2017 and a Gold Glove Award winner with the Pirates in 2018, Dickerson averaged 30 doubles and 18 homers during his first six full years in the majors. He’s been less productive the last three years, though he still maintained a league-average 100 OPS-plus in 2022 with the Cardinals, batting .267/.300/.399 with 17 doubles and six homers in 297 plate appearances.

If the offseason is all about trying to come up with reasons why 2023 could be better for the Nationals than 2022 was, here’s another one to add to the list: The schedule should be easier, perhaps by a significant amount.

It was kind of glossed over among all the changes announced via the new collective bargaining agreement last year, but let’s remind you now Major League Baseball made a dramatic change to the scheduling process. Instead of facing the teams from only one division in the opposing league each season (plus one designated interleague rival), everyone will now face everyone from the opposing league each season.

Yes, the Nationals will face all 29 other MLB clubs this year, and every year for the foreseeable future. It’s the first that’s ever happened in this sport, and while it was done to allow fans to see more teams and more players on a regular basis, it has the added effect of diminishing the volume of games being played within a team’s own division.

The Nationals faced fellow NL East rivals a total of 76 times last season (19 games a piece against the Braves, Mets, Phillies and Marlins). They will now play only 52 games within the division (13 games a piece).

If you’ve forgotten, the Nats were abysmal vs. the NL East last year. They finished 17-59 against those four opponents, a .224 winning percentage that registered as the lowest ever since division play began in 1969. Yeah, it was a disaster.

Whenever a discussion has come up this winter about the Nationals’ biggest needs, the focus understandably has been on several specific positions in the field: Third base, left field, first base, No. 5 starter.

There’s another position that hasn’t garnered much attention, though, and it probably should be a bigger part of the discussion: Designated hitter.

This, of course, wasn’t something the Nationals – or any other National League club – ever had to think about prior to 2022. When the DH officially was added to the NL last spring upon agreement of the league’s new collective bargaining agreement, Mike Rizzo quickly signed one of the most accomplished sluggers to ever hold that position in Nelson Cruz.

It didn’t exactly go as anyone hoped. Cruz never found any consistent success at the plate, and in the end looked very much like a 42-year-old whose best days had passed.

The Nats suffered as a result. Their DHs collectively finished with a .226 batting average, 13 homers, 78 RBIs, a .298 on-base percentage and a .620 OPS that ranked last in the NL. It’s not the only reason the offense struggled last season, but it was a big reason.

Once the shock of the trade wore off – and, yes, it was shocking, given the magnitude of last August’s deal – MacKenzie Gore’s focus shifted to one clear-cut objective: Pitch for the Nationals in 2022.

A resident of the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation when he was one of six players shipped by the Padres to the Nationals for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, Gore knew he was going to need some time to rehab and build his arm back up. But he believed he’d be ready to make his Nats debut before season’s end.

When it didn’t happen, there were conflicting emotions.

“Yeah, I wanted to pitch,” Gore said this week in an interview for the "Nationals Hot Stove Show" on MASN. “I wasn’t throwing when I got traded, so I wanted to get back out there. That’s the best way to get to know guys. But I also understood we needed to be smart. I needed to be smart. I knew why I got to where I was, so I understood.”

Gore’s rehab wasn’t a failure, by any stretch. He made four September rehab starts for Triple-A Rochester and had no issues with his elbow along the way. But he did feel fatigued in his final outing, one in which he served up three homers in 3 2/3 innings.

Rebuilding teams and reeling veterans are perfect matches for each other. Bring experience and leadership to a young clubhouse while playing every day to rejuvenate your career while the team develops prospects.

It’s often a mutually beneficial relationship.

The Nationals are certainly banking on that being true as this is how they’ve filled holes on their roster with three of their major league signings so far this offseason.

Jeimer Candelario, signed to a one-year deal in November, was non-tendered by the Tigers after six seasons. Trevor Williams, signed to a two-year deal last month, entered free agency knowing his role with the Mets was limited, either in the rotation or bullpen.

And Dominic Smith, who signed a one-year deal this week, was looking for a fresh start after being non-tendered by the Mets.

The Nationals roster, as currently constructed, is by no means loaded. It’s littered with inexperienced players, plus a handful of experienced ones trying to bounce back from recent struggles. It’s exactly what you’d expect the roster of a team that lost 107 games last year to look like.

Except in one peculiar way: Nearly every position on this roster seems to already be locked up, which could make for a strange spring training.

Most 100-loss teams come to camp with a host of spots up for grabs. There’s always going to be a competition for one or two rotation jobs, at least a few places in the lineup and most definitely a bunch of bench and relief positions.

But look at the Nationals right now, and you’ll quickly realize there isn’t that much that still needs to be decided.

Eight of the nine everyday players are probably set in stone already: Catcher Keibert Ruiz, newly signed first baseman Dominic Smith, the young middle infield combo of Luis García and CJ Abrams, new third baseman Jeimer Candelario, outfielders Lane Thomas and Victor Robles, plus Joey Meneses (whether he winds up in left field or as designated hitter).

Wearing a newly purchased, block W cherry blossom cap as he spoke to reporters via Zoom early Wednesday evening, Dominic Smith made it clear he doesn’t just expect to be a part of the 2023 Nationals. He expects to be a big part of the 2023 Nationals as their primary first baseman.

“Oh yeah, they want me to come in and play first base,” Smith said when asked if that was conveyed to him upon signing his one-year, $2 million deal this week. “And obviously just share my knowledge of the game and help some of the younger guys get over the kind of speed bumps I’ve had in my career. I think I can share my knowledge. I’m just excited for the opportunity. I know my ability and what I can do out there.”

Club officials have not spoken publicly since Smith’s contract became official, but manager Davey Martinez had indicated last month he wanted Joey Meneses to be his regular first baseman, with a focus instead on acquiring a left fielder.

Smith, though, profiles best at first base. Though he played a comparable number of games at both positions during parts of six seasons with the Mets, he rated much better at first base (minus-3 Defensive Runs Saved) than in left field (minus-11).

The 27-year-old made it sound like the promise of an everyday job at first base was a key reason for his decision to come to Washington. He believes some of his offensive struggles the last two seasons were exacerbated by his defensive struggles in the outfield. A chance to stay at his more comfortable position full-time would take a lot of weight off his shoulders, he believes.

In compiling a list Tuesday morning of remaining free agents the Nationals might have been looking at to play left field for them, we failed to mention the guy they actually agreed to a deal with later in the day.

Sorry, MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent page had Dominic Smith listed among the first basemen, not the left fielders.

It remains to be seen exactly how Davey Martinez intends to use Smith, who sources confirmed agreed to a one-year, $2 million deal with an additional $2 million possible in incentives. But MLB Trade Rumors’ decision to categorize him only as a first baseman might shed some important light into the matter.

Though he has played nearly the same number of games in left field (182) as first base (187) in his major league career, Smith has been considerably better at the latter position. He’s totaled minus-3 Defensive Runs Saved at first base, compared to minus-11 in left field.

It’s more instructive to look at Smith’s minor league career, where he spent the overwhelming majority of his time at first base (565 games), not in left field (22 games).