Organizational prospect rankings, by their nature, are going to fluctuate year to year. And this has especially been true for the Nationals, who have seen their farm system completely overhauled in recent seasons.

As recently as 2021, the organization’s top 10 list (as compiled by Baseball America) was headlined by three homegrown pitchers (Cade Cavalli, Jackson Rutledge, Cole Henry) and two internationally signed infielders (Yasel Antuna, Armando Cruz).

Only two years later, that list looked totally different, bolstered by the additions of top prospects acquired in the Juan Soto trade (James Wood, Robert Hassell III) and more recent first round draft picks (Elijah Green, Brady House).

The top-tier talent perhaps peaked one year ago, when Dylan Crews and Yoyo Morales joined Wood, House and Cavalli to create a pretty impressive one through five.

Now, with Baseball America releasing a new top prospects list within the last week, there’s a whole new set of promising young players busting down the doors, with five of the new top 10 having been acquired by the Nationals in the last 16 months alone.

As the Nationals have navigated their way through their current rebuilding efforts, general manager Mike Rizzo has often reiterated the fact he’s done this before. Upon taking the job in 2009, Rizzo tore down much of the 102-loss roster he inherited and spent the next three years building it back up before reaching the promised land with a 98-win division champion in 2012.

The comparisons of that rebuild timeline to this rebuild timeline have been plentiful. And though the 71-win Nats of 2024 didn’t come close to matching the 80-win team of 2011, there is a similar sense of optimism right now as there was back then, that this organization is ready to start adding significant pieces to the puzzle in an attempt to contend next season.

We tend to think of free agency as the primary method for adding those kind of major pieces. Who’s going to be this generation’s version of Jayson Werth? Of Adam LaRoche? Of Edwin Jackson?

Let’s not forget, though, the major piece Rizzo acquired last time around through an entirely different process: Gio Gonzalez.

On Dec. 22, 2011, the Nationals and Athletics finalized a trade that brought Gonzalez to D.C. in exchange for four highly rated prospects: Brad Peacock, Derek Norris, A.J. Cole and Tommy Milone. And, yes, all were considered highly rated prospects at the time, even if none ever realized their full potential. (Peacock and Norris ranked third and fourth, respectively, in the club’s farm system at the time, trailing only a couple of guys named Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon.)

Most of the attention this time of year – and, really, most of the offseason – is on big names. Sluggers. Starting pitchers. Free agents seeking multi-year deals, hopefully helping transform franchises in the process.

But there’s never been a Hot Stove League that ultimately wasn’t filled with dozens of relievers joining new clubs. And very often, those seemingly lower-profile moves prove to be just as important as the big-ticket ones.

The Nationals almost always are involved in this market, and there’s every reason to believe they once again will be involved this winter. (Or, perhaps, this spring.)

Mike Rizzo added a host of experienced relievers prior to the 2024 season, and many of those guys were signed not in November, December or January, but rather in February, even after pitchers and catchers reported for camp. Only one bullpen arm was signed prior to Feb. 1: Dylan Floro, who also got the only major league contract of the eventual bunch, for a modest $2.25 million.

Then came a flurry of minor league signings as camp was beginning. Richard Bleier and Robert Gsellman on Feb. 2. Luis Perdomo on Feb. 8. Jacob Barnes on Feb. 16. Derek Law on Feb. 22. Matt Barnes on Feb. 27.

If there’s only one player the Nationals are likely to pursue this winter, it’s an established slugger, preferably one who can play first base.

If there’s a No. 2 item on general manager Mike Rizzo’s wish list, it’s probably an experienced starting pitcher, one who could help lead an otherwise young rotation to better days.

This isn’t earth-shattering news. The next time Rizzo says he’s not looking for starting pitching will be the first time. It’s always a priority.

But the evidence suggests it’s been more of a priority certain years compared to others. Yeah, the Nationals pursued starters last winter. The only one they landed was Zach Davies, who got a minor league contract and then lost a spring training battle for the No. 5 spot in the rotation to Trevor Williams and was cut loose before camp ended.

At the other end of the spectrum, of course, were the major signings of Max Scherzer in 2015 and Patrick Corbin in 2019 to nine-figure deals.

It doesn’t take tremendous insight to figure out the Nationals’ No. 1 need this winter. They need to add power to a lineup that simply hasn’t had enough of that in recent years.

The Nats ranked 29th in the majors in home runs each of the last two seasons, and their total actually went down from 2023 (151) to 2024 (135). In today’s game, that simply won’t cut it. Six of baseball’s top-seven home run-hitting clubs made the playoffs this year, and none of the bottom six did.

Club officials do have hope for an increase in power production from several key young players, especially James Wood and Dylan Crews as they embark on their first full big league seasons. And if Brady House arrives as expected, the 2021 first round pick should provide some much needed slugging potential as well.

But make no mistake, the Nationals also have to acquire power from outside the organization this offseason. And that has to come from someone closer to the prime of his career than Joey Gallo, Eddie Rosario or Jesse Winker was upon their bargain-basement acquisitions last offseason.

If Mike Rizzo truly has the green light from ownership to pursue bigger name free agents, it stands to reason the longtime general manager will be making his pitch to a number of prominent sluggers seeking employment. And in a perfect world, the slugger the Nats wind up getting would play first base.

It’s still early November, so the Hot Stove is far from heating up. But with this past week getting us further removed from the end of the World Series, the offseason – specifically free agency – has officially begun.

For the Nationals, that means it may be time to make some significant offseason additions to the major league roster after years of waiting for their in-house prospects to reach the bigs, opening the window for them to compete again.

Mike Rizzo reportedly said at the General Manager Meetings this week in San Antonio that he thinks the Nats could make a big free agent signing this winter if it makes sense for the club, which would be a stark contrast to the organization’s philosophy over the last three offseasons.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Trade Rumors’ list of the top 50 free agents and which players its staff predicts will land in Washington …

1B PETE ALONSO
Top 50 rank: 7
Contract: Five years, $125 million

The Nationals envision three of their recent first-round picks playing a significant role on their major league roster next season, with Dylan Crews leading the way, Cade Cavalli poised to make his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery and Brady House on track to get called up from Triple-A Rochester at some point.

They need major contributions from top draft picks like that after a string of disappointments, something that was underscored this week when two prior first-rounders left the organization for good.

Carter Kieboom and Mason Denaburg were among a host of minor league players who became free agents, joining a list that also included former prospects Israel Pineda and Tim Cate, plus a pair of prospects acquired at the frantic 2021 trade deadline: Aldo Ramirez and Richard Guasch.

Kieboom, the 28th overall pick in the 2016 draft, was supposed to help provide a bridge from the Nationals’ 2019 championship roster to the future, tabbed as Anthony Rendon’s heir apparent at third base. But he never did produce at the big league level, finishing with a .199 batting average, .297 on-base percentage and .301 slugging percentage from 2019-23. He never mastered the third base position, either, after shifting from shortstop, with minus-5 career Defensive Runs Saved and 11 errors in 117 games at the hot corner.

Tommy John surgery also threw a wrench into Kieboom’s career, knocking him out the entire 2022 season. He made it back to the majors late in 2023 and got one final chance to play regularly but did little with that opportunity. He was outrighted off the 40-man roster in March and spent his entire season at Triple-A, batting .265 with seven homers, 42 RBIs and a .751 OPS while ultimately giving way to House at third base.

The first official week of the offseason didn't include any acquisitions - it rarely does - but it did include some notable departures, as well as some other news. With four open spots now on the 40-man roster, the Nationals are positioned to add. The question, of course, is how prominent (read: expensive) those additions might end up being.

It'll probably be a while longer before we know the answer to that all-important question. In the meantime, there's plenty to anticipate and speculate about as we gear up for the Hot Stove League.

If you've got something you'd like to ask, please leave it in the comments section below. Then check back throughout the morning for my replies ...

In a free agent class loaded with big names, one name clearly stands above the rest. Juan Soto was always going to be the prize of the 2024-25 offseason, and the now-26-year-old star ultimately positioned himself as well as he possibly could to get whatever he wants, from wherever he wants it, this winter.

Are the Nationals part of that conversation? The optimist would say absolutely they are, with plenty of available money to spend and their prior relationship with their former World Series hero. The pessimist would say there’s no chance of a reunion, not with the Yankees and Mets at the top of the list of suitors and not with the Nats’ lack of participation in legitimate free agency for several years now.

The realist would say there is a chance, but it’s a pretty small chance. By all accounts, Soto loved his first season with the Yankees, who loved him back and who now really need him to try to get back to and then win the World Series. If he somehow doesn’t re-sign with the Yanks, then the Mets are probably going to offer comparable money in the same city. And then there are other big-market suitors like the Phillies and Red Sox, maybe the Dodgers, Giants and Cubs as well if he’s willing to leave the East Coast.

Soto would have to really want to come back to the Nationals, and the Nationals would have to really want to bring him back to make this happen. It’s not impossible, but it’s probably improbable.

Here’s an interesting question, though, that must have crossed a few minds in the last week or two: If the Nats had never traded Soto, would they have a better chance of re-signing him now?

There’s already been a good amount of roster turnover for the Nationals since season’s end, with multiple veterans becoming free agents and several other notable players dropped from the 40-man roster earlier this week.

As the offseason gets underway, there are now four open slots on that 40-man roster, slots that could go to free agent acquisitions or in-house prospects ready for promotion. And if more slots are needed, there are a handful of current players who could still be dropped to create space.

What do the Nats currently have? What do they still need? Let’s take a look at the organizational depth chart as currently constructed to get a better idea of the state of things, going position by position. Players on the 40-man roster are listed first, with some minor leaguers not yet on the 40-man listed below them with an asterisk next to their names …

CATCHER
Keibert Ruiz
Drew Millas
Riley Adams
Brady Lindsly*
Onix Vega*
Caleb Lomavita*
Kevin Bazzell*

Comment: Ruiz was deemed the Nationals’ long-term answer behind the plate two years ago when he signed his $50 million extension, but there will be pressure on him to show real improvement after a disappointing season. Millas and Adams were on the D.C.-to-Rochester-and-back shuttle all year, neither seizing the job. And now that he’s arbitration-eligible, Adams could be a non-tender candidate later this month. For the first time in club history, the Nats used high draft picks on catchers this summer, selecting both Lomavita and Bazzell. Neither is going to be big league ready in 2025, but both are worth keeping an eye on.

Ildemaro Vargas and Joey Meneses arrived in Washington one day apart from each other, Vargas getting the call up from Triple-A Rochester on Aug. 1, 2022, to replace the traded Ehire Adrianza and Meneses called up the following afternoon to replace the traded Juan Soto.

Neither was a household name upon donning a Nationals uniform for the first time, but each made an immediate name for himself with an electric debut performance, Vargas going 4-for-4 and Meneses homering in his first major league game.

Thus did these two journeymen in their 30s become something of cult heroes on South Capitol Street, maybe the perfect encapsulation of the Nats during one of the lowest points in club history.

That 2022 team not only traded Soto, it proceeded to lose 107 games. And yet amid the disaster that was August and September of that season, there were genuine bright spots, individuals who made the most of the opportunity they were given and became fan favorites in the process.

Meneses was an out-of-nowhere revelation, a 30-year-old rookie who toiled for a decade in the minors, never getting a chance to prove he could hit major league pitchers. All he did during those final two months in 2022 was bat .324 with 13 homers, 34 RBIs and a .930 OPS that trailed only Manny Machado among all National League hitters during that span.

The Nationals made a flurry of transactions to clear up space on their 40-man roster this evening, parting ways with a couple of well-known veterans in the process.

Joey Meneses and Ildemaro Vargas both cleared outright waivers and chose to become free agents rather than remain in the organization. The same was true of Triple-A right-hander Michael Rucker, who declared for free agency after clearing waivers. Pitcher Thaddeus Ward, meanwhile, was claimed off waivers by the Orioles and has thus seen his time with the Nats come to an end.

Those moves, along with the activation of four players off the 60-day injured list (Joan Adon, Cade Cavalli, Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson) wrapped up an eventful first official day of the offseason, leaving the Nationals with 36 players on their 40-man roster as they prepare for what could be a far more active winter than they’ve experienced since embarking on their franchise rebuild in 2021.

The decision to part ways with Meneses and Vargas, while somewhat surprising in the latter’s case, underscores the organization’s desire to move on from veterans who helped the team get through these recent lean years and perhaps signals an intention to more aggressively attempt to field a winner in 2025.

Meneses, 32, became one of the unexpected cult heroes of the rebuild when the career minor leaguer was called up from Triple-A on the same day superstar Juan Soto was traded to the Padres. He proceeded to homer in his major league debut and finished with 13 home runs and a .930 OPS in 56 games to close out the 2022 season. He remained a productive hitter in 2023, though experienced a drop in power and finished those same 13 homers and a .722 OPS despite playing in three times as many games.

Halloween has come and gone. The leaves have changed colors and are beginning to fall to the ground. Daylight Saving Time is finished for the year, leaving us with the oh-so-depressing 5 p.m. sunset for the next few months.

And the 2024 Major League Baseball season has ended. The Dodgers wrapped up the World Series five nights ago, which means the offseason officially begins today. Free agents are free to negotiate with all 30 clubs. Contract options must be picked up or declined. Rosters must be set. And teams can begin making changes they hope will lead to better results in 2025.

This offseason has long loomed as the Nationals’ most consequential one in several years. There’s nothing really left to tear down from the old roster. Many of the key young players acquired in the rebuild are now big leaguers, with more to come soon. It feels like it’s time for these guys to start adding real free agents to the young core at last.

While technically permitted beginning today, those kind of major acquisitions aren’t expected to occur until later this winter. You never really know how the offseason market is going to play out, but recent history suggests there will be little movement of consequence until at least early December at the Winter Meetings, and quite possibly not until after New Year’s.

But there will be some news nonetheless this month. Here’s a Nats primer for November to help get you into Hot Stove mode. …

Jacob Young’s rookie season for the Nationals, while stellar in the field, was not ultimately deemed golden.

Despite holding a statistical advantage over his fellow nominees, Young lost out to Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle, who earned his second straight Gold Glove Award tonight.

Doyle beat out Young and the Brewers’ Blake Perkins in balloting, which was determined by a combination of an end-of-season vote by National League managers and coaches and a statistical component that accounted for 25 percent of the final tally.

Young had a particularly strong case for the award.

According to Baseball Savant, the 25-year-old finished the season with 20 Outs Above Average, tied with Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez for most among all major leaguers, regardless of position. His 18 Runs Prevented led all big leaguers and represented the highest number posted in that statistical category since 2019.

I want to thank reader and commenter Peter Wood for posing this question back in September that I thought was an interesting topic to address in the offseason: Who do we think will have a better career, Dylan Crews or Jackson Holliday?

It is, of course, way too early to make any proclamation one way or the other. But with each playing a substantial amount in the major leagues this season, there are significant data points to start the conversation.

Crews and Holliday are both highly touted young players and former No. 1 overall prospects in the sport. The Nationals got Crews out of Louisiana State with the No. 2 overall pick in 2023. Holliday, out of Stillwater High School in Oklahoma, was the No. 1 overall selection when the Orioles drafted him in 2022.

Both youngsters were anticipated to make their big league debuts this year, which they did. In fact, they each had a shot at making his respective team’s Opening Day roster. Many around the league believed that leaving Holliday off the Orioles roster to start the season was a surprising snub.

And so it was that both prospects started the year in the minor leagues, with Crews at Double-A Harrisburg and Holliday at Triple-A Norfolk.

PLAYER REVIEW: JACOB BARNES

Age on Opening Day 2025: 34

How acquired: Signed as minor league free agent, February 2024

MLB service time: 6 years, 91 days

2024 salary: $740,000

PLAYER REVIEW: ROBERT GARCIA

Age on Opening Day 2025: 28

How acquired: Claimed off waivers from Marlins, August 2023

MLB service time: 1 year, 86 days

2024 salary: $742,800

PLAYER REVIEW: TANNER RAINEY

Age on Opening Day 2025: 32

How acquired: Traded from Reds for Tanner Roark, December 2018

MLB service time: 5 years, 127 days

2024 salary: $1.5 million

PLAYER REVIEW: JOSE A. FERRER

Age on Opening Day 2025: 25

How acquired: Signed as international free agent, July 2017

MLB service time: 1 year, 94 days

2024 salary: $743,000

PLAYER REVIEW: DEREK LAW

Age on Opening Day 2025: 34

How acquired: Signed as minor league free agent, February 2024

MLB service time: 5 years, 81 days

2024 salary: $1.5 million