PLAYER REVIEW: KEIBERT RUIZ
Age on Opening Day 2025: 26
How acquired: Traded with Josiah Gray, Donovan Casey and Gerardo Carrillo from Dodgers for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, July 2021
MLB service time: 3 years, 64 days
2024 salary: $6 million
PLAYER REVIEW: NASIM NUÑEZ
Age on Opening Day 2025: 24
How acquired: Rule 5 Draft, 2023
MLB service time: 1 year
2024 salary: $740,000
PLAYER REVIEW: ILDEMARO VARGAS
Age on Opening Day 2025: 33
How acquired: Signed as minor league free agent, May 2022
MLB service time: 5 years, 7 days
2024 salary: $1.1 million
PLAYER REVIEW: ANDRÉS CHAPARRO
Age on Opening Day 2025: 25
How acquired: Traded from Diamondbacks for Dylan Floro, July 2024
MLB service time: 49 days
2024 salary: $740,000
PLAYER REVIEW: JUAN YEPEZ
Age on Opening Day 2025: 27
How acquired: Signed as minor league free agent, December 2023
MLB service time: 1 year, 105 days
2024 salary: $740,000
PLAYER REVIEW: DYLAN CREWS
Age on Opening Day 2025: 23
How acquired: First-round pick, 2023 Draft
MLB service time: 35 days
2024 salary: $740,000
PLAYER REVIEW: JACOB YOUNG
Age on Opening Day 2025: 25
How acquired: Seventh-round pick, 2021 Draft
MLB service time: 1 year, 37 days
2024 salary: $740,000
PLAYER REVIEW: JAMES WOOD
Age on Opening Day 2025: 22
How acquired: Traded with CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit from Padres for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, August 2022
MLB service time: 91 days
2024 salary: $740,000
We've been doing these Opening Day media predictions for 15 years now, and I'm always grateful to my colleagues on the Nationals beat for their willingness to participate and subject themselves to the inevitable ridicule that follows.
And there's definitely some ridicule to be doled out as we look back at our 2024 predictions. (Hey, I'm just as guilty as anyone!) A lot of things did not play out this season as any of us thought they would back in late March. But we weren't completely wrong on every category. There actually were several spot-on predictions by several members of the beat, and they deserve credit for being right.
And with that, it's time for some accountability. Here's a look back at all of our Opening Day predictions, what we got right and what we did not get right ...
WHICH NATIONALS WILL BE SELECTED FOR THE ALL-STAR GAME?
Bobby Blanco (MASNsports.com) – CJ Abrams
Jessica Camerato (MLB.com) – CJ Abrams
Craig Heist (106.7 The Fan) – Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz
Chelsea Janes (Washington Post) – CJ Abrams
Andrew Golden (Washington Post) – MacKenzie Gore
Bill Ladson (MLB.com honorary) – Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin
Spencer Nusbaum (Washington Post) – MacKenzie Gore
Mark Zuckerman (MASNsports.com) – Kyle Finnegan
Correct answer: CJ Abrams was set to be the Nationals’ lone All-Star this year, the first selection of his career, after his outstanding first half. Then on the day before the Midsummer Classic, Kyle Finnegan was added to the National League roster to replace Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, giving the Nats two All-Stars.
Despite a 16-win improvement in 2023, the Nationals were careful not to call last year a success. Even though they jumped from 55 to 71 victories, they still lost 91 games for their fourth straight losing season.
“I don't think that it's a successful season, but it's a very encouraging season,” said general manager Mike Rizzo on Sept. 13, 2023. “Nobody wants to aim to win 70 games in a season. We want to win 97 games in the season. So that's our goal. That's always been our goal. But this is a good step in the right direction to that.”
The Nats looked like they were going to take a similar step in that direction this year. Through the first 77 outings in late June, they were on pace to win about 80 games. That would have been close to another double-digit win improvement from last year and close to their first finish at or above .500 since winning the World Series in 2019.
But from that point on, starting with a three-game sweep at Petco Park at the hands of the Padres (which also helped turn San Diego’s season around), the Nats went 33-52 (.388) the rest of the way en route to finishing with the same 71-91 record they had in 2023. Although this year, they did finally end their four-year streak of finishing last in the National League East, with the woeful Marlins residing in the division’s basement.
So if last year was more “encouraging” than a “success,” what’s the word the Nats would use to describe the 2024 season?
Go back and peruse some random Nationals lineups from 2022, and you’re likely to find a lot of names who aren’t here anymore, many of them veterans in the waning days of their careers.
Move ahead to 2023, and you’ll find a few more promising young players, the so-called first wave of prospects who either were acquired via trade or drafted and developed from within. You’ll also still find a number of veteran stopgaps who have since departed.
The same was actually true early in 2024. Lest anyone forget, the Nats’ Opening Day lineup included the likes of Jesse Winker, Joey Meneses, Joey Gallo and Eddie Rosario, with Nick Senzel a planned part of that group until he fractured his thumb in pregame warmups.
By season’s end, though, the transformation was finally complete. The Nationals’ regular lineup was built almost entirely with young players, most of them at least potential long-term solutions.
James Wood, Dylan Crews and Jacob Young didn’t make the team out of spring training, but they were everyday players by Game 162. Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz weren’t in the Opening Day rotation, but they were trusted stalwarts before long.
It feels a bit like ancient history at this point, but it’s worth remembering the Nationals were consistently one of baseball’s highest-spending clubs for nearly a decade. For nine consecutive seasons from 2013-21, their year-end payroll ranked among the top 10 in the majors, peaking in 2019 at more than $205 million (fourth-highest in the sport).
That all changed in July 2021 when the franchise tore down its aging roster and embarked on a rebuild that continues to this day. The Nats ranked 18th in year-end payroll in 2022, 22nd in 2023 and 24th this season, according to figures calculated by Spotrac.
The organization’s approach to the last three offseasons was clear: The major league roster would be filled with short-term solutions while everyone waited for a revamped farm system to start producing the next wave of big leaguers. The Nationals spent a total of $22.25 million on major league free agents prior to the 2022 season, another $22.25 million entering 2023 and only $9.25 million entering this season. Only one player signed a guaranteed multi-year contract: Trevor Williams (two years, $13 million).
While frustrating to many, and subject to plenty of criticism, the approach was grounded in some actual baseball logic: It made little sense to spend big money on free agents until enough prospects made it to the big leagues and the team was ready to actually “go for it” again.
That logic was justified each of the last three winters. It’s not justified this time around.
If the Nationals want to point to only one clearly positive development from their just-completed season, the answer is simple: Improved pitching, especially in the rotation, especially from a group of young starters.
MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz may not have been dominant – though all exhibited moments of dominance along the way – but collectively they made 113 starts, pitched effectively (4.20 ERA, 1.297 WHIP) and established their place in the club’s 2025 plans.
“The biggest thing is obviously our young pitching,” manager Davey Martinez said last weekend. “Seeing some of these guys come up who we thought wouldn’t be here yet doing what they’ve done, they’ve done really well.”
Indeed, only Gore and Irvin were part of the Opening Day rotation. The three other slots went to designated No. 1 starter Josiah Gray and veterans Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams. Gray made only two starts before going on the injured list with an elbow issue that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Corbin made his usual 32 starts with his usual inflated ERA. Williams enjoyed a major turnaround from the previous year but still missed 3 1/2 months with a flexor strain.
So the unexpected positive developments involved Parker and Herz, a couple of rookie left-handers who figured to get a shot at some point later in the season but wound up in D.C. much earlier than expected and then held onto their jobs once they arrived.
In his end-of-season session with reporters, Mike Rizzo lamented the Nationals’ lack of power and need to make significant improvements in that department in the future.
“Slug is something that we’re going to try and either acquire and/or develop,” the longtime general manager said, “to get to a point where you don’t need to get three or four hits in an inning to score a run, and it makes it much more difficult to put up a crooked number.”
Rizzo said this one year ago, at the end of the 2023 season. If you didn’t know that, you’d have every reason to believe he just said it last weekend as the Nats were wrapping up yet another power-starved season at the plate.
The 2024 Nationals were an improved group in many ways. They were not any better at hitting the ball out of the park. In fact, they were worse.
Last season, they ranked 21st in the majors with 700 runs scored. This season, they ranked 25th with only 660 runs scored. Last season, they ranked 29th in home runs with 151. This season, they again ranked 29th with only 135 homers.
History will forever show the Nationals went 71-91 in 2024. Just as they did in 2023. It’s not a won-loss record anyone should remember fondly, and the fact it didn’t change from 12 months prior would suggest the team as a whole didn’t really improve at all from one year to the next. For a franchise three years into a roster rebuild, that could feel quite disheartening.
Do you think it’s fair, though, to evaluate this team primarily on its won-loss record? Presented with that question over the weekend, Davey Martinez had to think long and hard before finally settling on an answer.
“Um … no, I really don’t,” the longtime manager said. “We’ve had a lot of different things happen in the course of the year.”
Martinez went on to detail how much the Nationals’ roster changed from April to September, how the team that ended the season was one of the youngest in baseball, which offered plenty of promise but also lent itself to more losses down the stretch than anyone would have liked.
“I thought a lot this morning about where we’re at,” he said. “We had to make so many transitions.”
The 2024 Nationals wound up being a team of contradictions. They unquestionably showed real signs of progress from a year ago, especially in the pitching department. And yet when you look at the final standings, you’ll find a 71-91 record that looks identical to their 71-91 mark from 2023.
They wound up in this familiar situation after taking a 6-3 loss to the Phillies this afternoon in their season finale. Having already won the previous two days against the division champs, the Nats dug themselves into an early hole created by Jake Irvin and couldn’t quite claw all the way back, despite one last-ditch attempt in the bottom of the ninth.
"We made it interesting," manager Davey Martinez sighed. "Testament to the guys. They fought hard all year long. I'm proud of them. Obviously, nobody wants to go home this time of year. You want to keep playing. But the effort was definitely there this year."
There wasn’t as much intensity on display today as there was Friday and Saturday at Nationals Park, where the young home team seemed extra motivated to beat the Phillies and deny them a shot at home-field advantage throughout the postseason. With nothing at stake anymore, this was a more low-key affair, with the Phillies sitting Bryce Harper and pulling Trea Turner early, though the Nats decided to battle one last time.
Loading the bases with no outs in the ninth, they had three shots to win the game with one swing. But Luis García Jr. struck out, James Wood struck out looking and Juan Yepez drove a ball to the wall in left that left everybody holding their breath until Kody Clemens made a leaping catch to end the game.
Neither Keibert Ruiz nor Bryce Harper is in their respective teams’ lineups for today’s season finale, so it doesn’t look like there will be any residual effects of Saturday’s incident between the two, one that prompted both the Nationals and Phillies’ benches and bullpens to empty.
Ruiz figured to be off all along, with Drew Millas getting the start behind the plate after Ruiz caught the previous three games. And with the Phillies no longer having a shot at home-field advantage in the playoffs, manager Rob Thomson decided to give Harper a breather and let him prepare for the National League Division Series later this week.
Saturday’s eighth-inning situation, though, still resonated the following day, an unexpected display of emotion from a couple of prominent players, one of them of course a former Nationals star.
Jose A. Ferrer had just surrendered a game-tying homer to Trea Turner when Harper stepped to the plate in what was now a 2-2 game. Ferrer’s second pitch of that at-bat was a 98 mph sinker right on the outer edge of the zone, and Ruiz held his mitt there for an extra second hoping to get the strike call from plate umpire Nic Lentz. (He didn’t get the call.)
Harper immediately said something to Ruiz, who later told reporters the Philly slugger appeared to be bothered by his attempt to frame the pitch.
We have reached the finish line. It’s Game 162, and while this one doesn’t officially matter for either team, there are still some personal achievements on the line. And for the Nationals, a chance to close out the year with a surprising sweep of the playoff-bound Phillies and to top last year’s win total with No. 72.
It’ll be Jake Irvin on the mound one last time. And as was the case Saturday with MacKenzie Gore, he’ll be looking for win No. 11, a number no Nats starter has reached since 2019. Unlike Gore, Irvin can’t get his ERA down below the 4.00 mark – unless he can go 10 2/3 scoreless innings – but he can finish on a high note. And if he can complete 6 2/3 innings, he’ll reach the 190 mark for the season, no small accomplishment.
At the plate, James Wood needs another homer to reach 10 in his rookie season. Dylan Crews needs a good day to get his batting average over .200. Oh, and in the bullpen, Derek Law needs to record one more out to get to 90 innings for the season.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Where: Nationals Park
Gametime: 3:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, 88.7 FM (Spanish), MLB.com
Weather: Chance of rain, 74 degrees, wind 7 mph in from center field
NATIONALS
2B Luis García Jr.
LF James Wood
DH Juan Yepez
3B José Tena
RF Dylan Crews
1B Joey Gallo
C Drew Millas
CF Jacob Young
SS Nasim Nuñez
The Nationals want MacKenzie Gore to be the ace of their next winning team. MacKenzie Gore wants to be the ace of the Nationals’ next winning team.
To get there, the left-hander knows he needs to find a level of consistency that has heretofore eluded him in two full big league seasons. But if he can bottle up what he did over the last six weeks of this season – and especially what he did in the last of his six scoreless innings today – he’s got an awfully good chance of realizing his full potential.
With strikeouts of Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, Gore concluded his 32nd and final start of 2024 with a flourish. And though the final innings of today’s 6-3 win over the Phillies would feature plenty more drama – Turner’s game-tying homer off Jose A. Ferrer, a jawing match between Harper and Ferrer that prompted benches and bullpens to empty, Keibert Ruiz’s go-ahead single scoring James Wood, Joey Gallo’s three-run homer for good measure – none of that should overshadow the significance of Gore’s performance.
"Here's a guy who can win 18-20 games for us," said manager Davey Martinez, whose team matched last year's total with its 71st win. "When he's in the strike zone, he's really good. Today, he proved that."
The last two innings of this game, played before a bipartisan, sellout crowd of 38,135, had plenty of action (and offense) after a classic pitchers’ duel between Gore and Zack Wheeler.
The Nationals’ decision in mid-August to re-sign their entire coaching staff caught most outside observers by surprise. Yes, the team had shown signs of progress, but not so much progress that the decision to bring everyone back was a no-brainer.
If nothing else, conventional wisdom suggested the front office would wait until season’s end to evaluate coaches’ performance and then make decisions about everyone’s fate heading into 2025.
The early decision, prompted by manager Davey Martinez’s desire to let all of his coaches have peace of mind and not have to sweat out the season’s final month-and-a-half, was approved by general manager Mike Rizzo and ultimately by club ownership.
The Nationals owned a 55-65 record on Aug. 14 when Martinez announced the decision. They’ve gone 15-25 since and are now 20 games under .500 in the season’s final weekend. They need to win their final two games to surpass last year’s win total of 71.
Rizzo, who met with beat reporters Friday for the first time since the coaching decision, was asked both about the timing of the move and the rationale for retaining the whole staff.
