Tony Mansolino holds the same curiosity. Being closer to the subject doesn’t offer an ounce of clarity.

The Orioles’ third base coach doubles as its infield instructor. He works with a talented young group that’s certain to expand with more prospect arrivals in 2024.

He can do the math.

An overflow is upon us.

Gunnar Henderson was voted Rookie of the Year in the American League. Jordan Westburg, another high-round draft pick, moved between second and third base. Defensive wiz Joey Ortiz made his major league debut and routinely is chosen as the best-fielding shortstop in the organization. Top overall prospect Jackson Holliday could break camp with the team or join it shortly after the season begins. Coby Mayo is threatening to bash down the door.

The sluggish nature of the free agent and trade markets haven’t stalled the Orioles pursuit of starting pitching.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said again today at the Birdland Caravan that he’s working the phones and trying to get a deal done.

“This is a team that is in really good shape,” Elias said. “We won 101 games last year, won the division and 90-95 percent of the team is back. So, this is a team that we’re looking to upgrade and supplement and not reimagine. But the offseason is still going, there’s a lot left on the board and a lot of discussions still happening.

“It’s been kind of a later, slower offseason than normal and we’re working pretty furiously, but since we spoke at the Winter Meetings, just haven’t lined up on particular opportunities, but there’s still time for that.”

The Orioles reportedly remain engaged with Mike Lorenzen, who drew their interest at last year’s trade deadline. Elias has been locked into talks with the White Sox about Dylan Cease and the Marlins about multiple starters, but the asking price in prospects is too high. They aren’t pursuing right-hander Domingo Germán in free agency despite reports.

The three-day Birdland Caravan begins this morning with the “Justin, Scott and Spiegel Show” from 5:30-10 a.m. at Banditos Taco & Tequila in Columbia.

Like I’ve always said, it’s never too early for a margarita. I’m having it etched on my tombstone.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde will be available to media later in the day at the warehouse, along with seven coaches and six players. Further proof that grilling can be done in the middle of winter.

Elias won’t need to repeat last year’s statement that the rebuild was behind the Orioles. The 101 wins and division title provided all the evidence.

The No. 1 media request will be an update on the search for a starting pitcher. Whether Elias remains confident that he can land one via trade or free agency. Whether a pitcher for the top of the rotation is a realistic pursuit. Whether the asking price in trades is astronomical and prohibitive.

I’ve made some Orioles predictions over the past few weeks, in case you missed or forgot them. I don’t blame you.

To review:

The Orioles will acquire a starting pitcher but he won’t be on the mound for Opening Day, the rotation consists of the newcomer, Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means and Dean Kremer, Colton Cowser begins the season in Triple-A, Gunnar Henderson will lead the team in home runs, Henderson won’t win a Gold Glove, Henderson will reach double digits in triples, Adley Rutschman won't go 5-for-5 with a home run on Opening Day, Coby Mayo will create a huge buzz in camp, Cedric Mullins will be healthier and better, the Orioles will experience some regression but they’re making the playoffs, they won’t get swept in the first round, they will exceed the 87.5 wins set as odds by BetOnline, they will go to an arbitration hearing with at least one unsigned player, the Orioles and Jacob Webb will find a midpoint and avoid a hearing, the Orioles will get swept during the regular season, Henderson will repeat as Most Valuable Oriole, Craig Kimbrel will exceed his 23-saves total from last year, DL Hall will record at least one save, Dillon Tate will make a dramatic comeback.

Let’s keep going.

Cionel Pérez will have better splits because they were bananas last season.

The Orioles focused on outfield depth this afternoon by signing Daniel Johnson to a minor league contract.

Johnson, 28, spent last summer in the Padres system and batted a combined .271/.348/.469 with 28 doubles, four triples, 19 home runs and 73 RBIs in 126 games between Double-A San Antonio and Triple-A El Paso. He posted a .296 average and .967 OPS in 28 games in the Pacific Coast League.

The Nationals drafted Johnson in the fifth round in 2016 out of New Mexico State University. They traded him to Cleveland two years later in the Yan Gomes deal, and the Mets purchased his contract in 2022.

The adventure continued for Johnson, who was released two months later and signed by the Nationals. The Padres signed him as a free agent in February 2023.

The extent of Johnson’s major league exposure is 35 games with Cleveland in 2020-21, when he went 18-for-89 with four home runs and five RBIs. He’s a career .269/.335/.449 hitter with 144 doubles, 29 triples, 89 homers, 339 RBIs and 108 stolen bases in seven minor league seasons and 679 games.

The Orioles are down to four unsigned players who are eligible for arbitration and could go to hearings.

The team announced today that it reached agreement with left-handed reliever Cionel Pérez on a contract for 2024. He also received a club option for 2025.

Pérez sought $1.4 million and the Orioles offered $1.1 million when the sides exchanged figures on Jan. 11. The file-and-go approach to hearings has its exceptions, with deals struck that include options.

Outfielder Austin Hays, first baseman Ryan O’Hearn and relievers Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb remain unsigned.

Hays is seeking $6.3 million and the Orioles are offering $5.85 million. O'Hearn is seeking $3.8 million and the club is offering $3.2 million. Coulombe’s side submitted $2.4 million and the Orioles countered at $2.2 million. Webb is seeking $1 million and the club is offering $925,000.

I’m counting 23 days until Orioles pitchers and catchers must report to the Ed Smith Stadium complex in Sarasota. However, the number of early arrivals seems to increase every year.

Many of the position players also arrive before their date. Great complex, great weather, and an eagerness to start a new season.

I’ve shared some early predictions over the past few weeks that I’ll gladly walk back if I must do it. You learn to admit that you’re wrong if it happens enough times.

There's no substitute for experience.

Me: The Orioles won’t tender contracts to all 17 of their arbitration-eligible players.

The Orioles aren’t necessarily done with their bullpen, remaining open to the idea of adding another veteran to it. Perhaps on a minor league deal to compete in camp. Perhaps on a major league deal to pair with new closer Craig Kimbrel.

As we’ve discussed here, it’s one way to improve the pitching staff if executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias can’t obtain an impact starter. It worked with Andrew Miller at the 2014 deadline.

The mistake was letting Miller walk as a free agent. The front office stance being that a one-inning guy wasn’t worth the money, though Darren O’Day received a four-year, $31 million extension in December 2015.

Josh Hader wasn’t returning to the Orioles organization. The local angle – Millersville native and Old Mill High graduate – wasn’t worth more than the $95 million that the Astros are paying him over the next five seasons.

That’s the largest deal for a reliever in terms of present-day value, with none of the money deferred. The largest stretch would be linking the Orioles to Hader based only on Félix Bautista’s elbow surgery.

The latest spring training update, with the report date for pitchers and catchers and the first workouts, can transport a person to Sarasota without needing an airline reservation.

Shovels filled with snow and ice bring that same person back to reality. But at least there are no lines at security.

I have a few more weeks until I need to start packing and issuing the same reminder that it’s spring training and not spring break. Don’t get them confused.

The alarm is set early just about every day for six weeks. It’s work, I tell you.

Oh sure, it’s sunny and warm and baseball. The restaurant choices are more expansive than Shakespeare’s vocabulary. But thou shalt never truly know the depths of my despair over learning that Yume Sushi on Main Street has closed permanently.

SAN ANTONIO de GUERRA, Dominican Republic – Among the stacks of mental snapshots from yesterday’s opening of the Orioles’ new baseball academy, with its Sarasota vibe that whets the appetite for spring training, is the image of former pitcher Ubaldo Jiménez strolling into the complex with a big smile on his face and his old black cap with the orange bill perched atop his head.

The man doesn’t take the chance to represent lightly.

Jiménez was invited to the ceremony and made the trip from his Miami home, where his passions are real estate investments and helping to raise his three daughters. He last pitched in the majors with the Orioles on Sept. 22, 2017. The Rockies signed him in February 2020 and released him five months later.

Still appearing in baseball shape, could another comeback attempt be in the works? Jiménez flashed his familiar smile again and reminded us that he turns 40 next week.

Jiménez couldn’t single out just one feature of the state-of-the-art academy that most impressed him.

SAN ANTONIO de GUERRA, Dominican Republic – Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias recited some of his club’s accomplishments earlier today – the best record in the American League and the top farm system in baseball getting their proper due – before redirecting his attention to the reason for the enormous gathering. The grand opening of their state-of-the-art training academy that attracted several of the country’s dignitaries and the club’s top officials.

“But,” Elias said with impeccable timing, “this is the most important achievement our group has made in these five years.”

The 22.5-acre complex is home to the Orioles’ regional facility for Caribbean, Central and South American player development operations, and includes three full fields, a sports turf agility field, batting and pitching tunnels, administrative buildings, dormitories and educational facilities. It can hold more than 100 players, coaches and staff, compared to 60-70 at the old facility in Boca Chica.

The project was led by landowner and developer Brian Mejia of Brison SRL, who choked up several times today and wiped away tears as he shared his mother’s wish to see the completion of the academy. She passed away last month.

Spectators applauded and encouraged Mejia during his emotional speech. He’d pause, try to regroup and push ahead.

In order for the Orioles to come out clean on the other side of their teardown and rebuild, they had to create a presence in the international market. Spend money in it. Find the right people with solid reputations and name and face recognition instead of being invisible.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias made one of his most important moves in January 2019, two months after joining the Orioles, by hiring Cleveland’s Koby Perez as senior director of international scouting. Elias called it “the first major step in improving our footing in Latin America.”

“His experience, connections and reputation built across a fast-rising career in multiple successful organizations will immediately elevate our capabilities in this critical market,” Elias said that day.

The department lacked a formal leader since Fred Ferreria was dismissed after the 2017 season. Assistant director of minor league and international operations Cale Cox was let go in October 2018.

The Orioles played on the fringes of the market. Now, they’re in the deep end.

I shared some predictions a week ago and set aside topics that I wasn’t ready to touch.

Let’s do this again with a few more, pausing the arbitration talk and waiting one more day for the start of the international signing period.

Predictions:

The Orioles will exceed the 87.5 wins set as odds by BetOnline.

The site adds that “these win totals are subject to change leading up to the season due to injuries, performance, public action, etc.” So yes, the acquisition of a stud starting pitcher, for example, could scramble some numbers.

The interest in the Orioles can’t always be confined to one mailbag entry. There’s some spillover that must be cleaned up.

Think of this space as aisle 5.

Here’s the remainder, along with a reminder that my mailbag parts ways amicably and yours is fired.

Where is Félix Bautista rehabbing?
I’m told he’s rehabbing at the spring training complex in Sarasota, but he’ll be in the Dominican Republic for Tuesday’s unveiling of the new state-of-the-art academy.

Are there any MLB teams not linked to a trade for Dylan Cease?
I like how you emphasized “MLB.” Just to be clear that you weren’t referring to the Northwoods League. It isn’t every team in the majors, but it’s more than a half-dozen, right? And yes, the Orioles are talking to the White Sox about him. Why is this treated like breaking news? And are they reportedly the “favorites” simply because they have the most prospects to offer?

The Orioles announced another new addition to their 2024 coaching staff, though he comes from within the organization.

Mitch Plassmeyer, 28, has been promoted from minor league pitching coordinator to major league assistant pitching coach. He replaces Darren Holmes, who was hired as the Cubs bullpen coach.

Plassmeyer was minor league pitching coordinator since May 2022. He had worked at the University of Missouri-Columbia as pitching coach and director of player development–baseball after beginning his coaching career at Premier Pitching and Performance (P3) in Missouri.

Drew French, 39, was named pitching coach earlier in the offseason after spending the last three seasons as Braves bullpen coach. He replaces Chris Holt, who remains director of pitching.

The other change is Grant Anders’ role as major league development coach.

An organization that isn’t hurting for infield prospects and choices made a depth move this morning.

The Orioles signed 29-year-old utility player Errol Robinson to a minor league deal. The announcement didn’t include mention of a spring training invite but he’s likely on the list.

Robinson is a local product, growing up in Boyds, Md. and attending St. John’s College High School in D.C. The Dodgers drafted him in the sixth round in 2016 out of the University of Mississippi.

The Reds claimed Robinson on waivers in December 2020 and the Cardinals signed him to a minor league contract in July 2022. St. Louis released him three months ago.

Robinson is a career .251/.332/.347 hitter in seven minor league seasons and hasn’t reached the majors. He’s totaled 82 doubles, 10 triples, 28 home runs, 196 RBIs and 95 stolen bases.

Scanning social media baseball posts on the former Twitter, as it’s now called, can be informative and enlightening. Also, comical and annoying. The emotions have more range than Paul Blair in center field.

Sometimes, you’ll stumble upon things that make you go “hmmmm.” And then you're at risk of overthinking it.

The Orioles are reported to have interest in reliever Ryan Brasier, 36, with his market also including the Cardinals, Rangers, Dodgers, Angels and Cubs. He isn’t the starting pitcher that executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias has tried to procure. He doesn’t appear to be a necessity with the club holding so many relief options.

Elias indicated on the final day of the Winter Meetings that he’d monitor other opportunities with relievers, whether through a trade or signing, but the urgency seemed to be fading after the Orioles signed closer Craig Kimbrel.

"There's room for more, but I would feel like this group now stacks up really well around the league with what we have now," Elias said in Nashville. "We also have the possibility depending on how our rotation pursuits and our rotation competition goes in Sarasota, that some of the talented guys we have in that mix could spill over into the 'pen.

A new week is beginning and another important baseball date is approaching.

Friday is the deadline for teams to reach agreements on contracts with their arbitration-eligible players before the sides exchange salary figures. Hearings are scheduled between Jan. 29 and Feb. 16 in Scottsdale, Ariz.

The non-tender deadline passed on Nov. 17 with the Orioles signing shortstop Jorge Mateo for $2.7 million, left-hander Keegan Akin for $825,000 and outfielders Ryan McKenna and Sam Hilliard for $800,000.

The other 13 eligible players were tendered contracts. The Orioles went 17-for-17 to shock prognosticators like me who practically guaranteed at least one non-tender. Guys sitting on the bubble didn’t burst it.

At the risk of shattering the record for the most rehashed numbers, here are the MLBTradeRumors projected raises:

The countdown to spring training is gaining momentum. The offseason is melting away as the temperature drops, forming a Frosty puddle.

I’m about to get busy, busy, busy.

Mocks and predictions are popular ways to keep fans engaged, with the disclaimer that everything can change with one or two transactions.

The Orioles and their division rivals aren’t done constructing their rosters. I don’t own a crystal ball, but I highly recommend Dan Aykroyd’s Crystal Skull vodka. It's first on my list, but it’s harder to find than a usable Erik Bedard quote.

But I digress …

The media crowd around Jackson Holliday’s locker will have more layers than an onion on his first day of availability in camp. Must be his appeal.

(You see what I did there.)

Holliday was a good story last spring. The first-overall draft pick with the youthful face and famous father. Everyone wanted to see him play, and he stuck around much longer than anticipated.

It turned out to be more than a courtesy look and a chance to soak in the environment. Holliday wasn’t reassigned to the minor league side until March 14, after batting .385 with a .991 OPS.

The Orioles announced 30 non-roster invites on Feb. 2 and expanded the list later that day after outrighting reliever Darwinzon Hernández. The camp roster held 71 players, with an overflow in the auxiliary clubhouse.