The O's '21 draft class of pitchers looks a lot like 2019

We now have the facts as they relate to pitchers and the Orioles in the 2021 First-Year Player Draft.

We do know they drafted just one pitcher in the first 10 rounds and then took eight from rounds 11 through 19. A run broken up only when they selected Florida Southern first baseman Jacob Teter in round 13.

Over time we will find out if waiting to draft all those pitchers was a wise move by the Orioles. If Kumar Rocker wins a couple of Cy Young Awards - OK, if he is even a plus starting pitcher - O's fans might remember the night the club passed him over.

But perhaps the club's strategy involved a couple of factors here. One would be looking to duplicate some initial success they have had with the 2019 draft class. They selected 19 pitchers then, but just two in the first 11 rounds. Most came in rounds 12 through 31 in a 40-round draft where the O's signed 35 players.

They also know they have a bunch of pitching prospects right now at higher levels they hope will make a solid impact on the big league roster in 2022 and 2023, if not sooner. Some we have seen, most we have not.

At Triple-A they have Alexander Wells, Zac Lowther, Kyle Bradish and Kevin Smith, to name four. It's a long list of starter candidates and options at Double-A Bowie, including Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Mike Baumann, Kyle Brnovich, Ofelky Peralta, Cody Sedlock, Cameron Bishop, Blaine Knight and Gray Fenter.

It would be big if a couple of those pitchers pop and show they can be good in the big leagues, and that list, of course, includes two highly ranked top 100 prospects.

Another factor is the success the organization has had developing pitchers under Mike Elias and his staff. In Elias' first year as O's executive vice president and general manager in 2019, the Orioles' affiliates finished with a .517 win percentage, to rank 10th among all 30 Major League Baseball organizations. They sent two teams to the playoffs, three really, but the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League postseason was canceled due to Hurricane Dorian. Baseball America rated the Orioles ninth in organizational rankings.

But it was on the pitching side where some special progress was made. Of the Orioles' top six farm teams, four clubs led their leagues in ERA. That was at Double-A Bowie, Single-A Delmarva, then-short-season Single-A Aberdeen and in the then-Gulf Coast League. And while it is true that Triple-A Norfolk and then-Single-A Frederick ranked last in their leagues in ERA, Norfolk's pitchers did set a team record for strikeouts. Delmarva not only led its league in strikeouts but set a South Atlantic League record. Bowie posted the best WHIP (1.18) in the Eastern League since 2001.

The early returns on the pitching were quite good.

Some of that has continued this season. The low Single-A Delmarva staff leads its league in team ERA, ranks first in bullpen ERA and third in rotation ERA. The Shorebirds staff includes now or has had on its roster during this year seven pitchers taken in the 2019 draft and seven others that Elias and his staff acquired outside of the draft.

Two pitchers who have done well signed as free agents after last year's draft. Ryan Watson is 3-1 with an ERA of 0.90, and Brandon Young is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA. Righty Igancio Feliz, taken in the minor league Rule 5 draft in 2020, is 4-0 with a 1.05 ERA. The 2019 15th-round pick, Kyle Martin, is 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA. Round 22 selection Jake Lyons is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA and eighth-rounder Griffin McLarty is 1-4 with a 4.43 ERA.

The O's hope to find some gems out of this crop of mostly lesser-known farm pitchers. John Means, an 11th-round pick, was once a lesser-known farm pitcher himself.

"We spend a lot of time looking at these college pitching prospects," said Brad Ciolek, the club's supervisor of domestic scouting operations. "I know a lot of people say, 'You kind of wait a little bit to take them.' But that is because of all the research that we do, and we do the best job possible in order to slot them to where we think we can get them. Very confident in that strategy so far, knock on wood, it's boded well and hopefully it continues to bode well for us."

At high Single-A Aberdeen this season, the Orioles have nine draft picks from 2019 and three other pitchers acquired outside of the draft. The IronBirds have pitched OK, but not as well as the Shorebirds. They rank sixth in team ERA in a 12-team league, fifth for the starters and seventh among relief pitchers. And they've promoted pitchers to Double-A Bowie.

Garrett Farmer, taken in round 25 in 2019, is 0-0 with a 3.81 ERA, and 31st-round pick Jake Prizina is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA for Aberdeen. Drew Rom has done well there, but he was selected in the 2018 draft by the previous regime. But now he is being developed by this one.

Rom is a top 30 prospect and the rest of this group is not. But Means barely ever made a top 30 list either. It's not a prerequisite to being an All-Star pitcher.

So maybe there was some method to the madness in the 2021 draft. Try to build on what they started in 2019 while continuing to progress with their young pitchers at Double-A and Triple-A now.

We know pitchers such as Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin have had their struggles. But the Orioles will continue to try to develop their skills to the fullest, and we saw glimpses of what they can do last summer.

So continue to work with the current group, remain hopeful about that large group of prospects still to come currently at the higher levels and fill the lower levels with another wave. As Andy MacPhail said when he was O's GM, if you have 20 pitching prospects, you may have just five to 10, between injuries and lack of performance. "You never have enough pitching" is a phrase almost 100 percent true for every club at every moment.

The Orioles have put some pressure on themselves by not taking pitchers high in the draft since 2019. Pressure to take those they did draft and turn them into winners in the big leagues. Tall task. But one every organization faces.

It's been true in the game for a long time: Developing pitching is hard.