What to make of Lowe, Nats filing for arbitration

The initial reaction for many to the Nationals and Nathaniel Lowe filing for arbitration Thursday night was one of incredulity. This is really how they’re going to treat their biggest offseason acquisition, by haggling over money and taking him to court?

It’s admittedly not a great look when a team can’t work out a contract with any player and has to rely on the arbitration process to determine that player’s salary. Even more so when that player is brand new and doesn’t already have some kind of established relationship with the club.

But let’s not get too worked up about this. It may not look great on the surface, but it’s not the end of the world. It’s actually not that uncommon. And there’s a decent chance this saga doesn’t even end with a hearing.

The Nationals had six arbitration-eligible players they needed to work out 2025 salaries with before Thursday’s deadline. They managed to settle on deals with five of the six: Luis García Jr., MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, Derek Law and Riley Adams. They could not get a deal done with Lowe, the 29-year-old first baseman acquired from the Rangers last month for reliever Robert Garcia.

So the two sides had to formally file for arbitration, with Lowe seeking a salary of $11.1 million and the Nats countering with an offer of $10.3 million, according to MLB.com. A hearing will be set for early February, with a three-judge panel ultimately deciding which side wins.

But here’s the all-important catch: The two sides can continue to negotiate between now and then, and if they can agree on terms they won’t ever need to hold that hearing. And recent history suggests there’s a good chance that’s exactly what will happen.

Some major league clubs insist once a player files for arbitration, there will be no more negotiations. “File and trial,” they call it, essentially daring the players not to agree to a deal before the deadline. In reality, few teams actually hold firm to that threat.

The Nationals themselves have been known to settle before a hearing. They did it two years in a row with Victor Robles, who filed for arbitration both in 2022 and 2023 but wound up agreeing to contracts before it came to that.

In fact, the Nationals hardly ever go to an actual trial. It’s happened only six times since Mike Rizzo became general manager in 2009, and it’s happened in only one of the last 10 years. Jerry Blevins went to arbitration in 2015 (and won); since then, only Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Barraclough have gone to a hearing, both in 2019 (both cases won by the Nats).

Hearings can be unpleasant and awkward. On one side of the room, the player and his agent make an impassioned case why he’s good enough to warrant the salary they requested. On the other side of the room, the general manager and his team insist the player isn’t nearly as good as he claims and doesn’t deserve the amount he seeks.

But it’s an unfortunate part of the business, and most of the time it’s treated simply as that. It’s business, not personal.

It’s to everyone’s benefit, though, if the two sides can reach a deal on their own before going to court. Don’t be surprised if Lowe and the Nationals are able to do that over the next few weeks, ultimately making the current handwringing unnecessary.