A big league debut that's a big deal for the Nats

It’s a special occasion when a pitcher makes his major league debut, all the more so when he starts the game, and especially when he enters that start as a highly touted prospect who could figure prominently into the organization’s long-term plan.

So make no mistake, Cade Cavalli’s big league debut tonight is a big deal for the Nationals, who desperately need their 2020 top draft pick to realize his full potential and help lead this rebuilding pitching staff for years to come.

Cavalli will be the 28th starting pitcher to make his major league debut for the Nationals since 2005, and that list is littered with long-forgotten names (Shairon Martis, J.D. Martin, Taylor Jordan) who never really amounted to anything. It also includes a few other highly touted prospects, some of whom did go on to realize their full potential for the Nats (Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann) or for other clubs (Lucas Giolito).

What’s most notable, though, is the lack of prominent pitching debuts for this franchise in recent years. Cavalli is only the sixth Nats starter to make his major league debut the last four years, joining the likes of Austin Voth (2018), Wil Crowe (2020), Joan Adon (2021), Evan Lee (2022) and Jackson Tetreault (2022).

The last first-round pick to debut as a starter was Erick Fedde in 2017. The last one to debut with significant fanfare was Giolito in 2016. And the last one to actually earn the win in his first career start was none other than Strasburg way back on the glorious night of June 8, 2010.

That’s a long time ago, and the franchise has been through a lot since then, building itself into a consistent winner, flaming out four times in the postseason before finally breaking through to win a World Series and then tearing down to the foundation and starting all over again.

Which is why Cavalli’s debut tonight arguably is the Nationals’ most important by a pitching prospect since Strasburg. (Yes, Giolito was probably a more-hyped prospect, but his arrival wasn’t critical to the team’s chances of winning in 2016, not with a rotation that already included Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and a rehabbing Strasburg.)

It’s hard to envision the Nats’ current rebuild paying off within the next few years without Cavalli playing a significant role in the process. It’s not all on him, of course. MacKenzie Gore, Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, Josiah Gray and other recent additions to the farm system like Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Brady House and Elijah Green all will make an impact, good or bad.

But the Nationals really can’t afford for Cavalli not to make it as a frontline starter for them. He doesn’t necessarily have to become their ace. Gore (or even a free agent to be named) could take that title. But he needs to be good for 30-plus starts a year, a low ERA and lots of strikeouts.

Is the 24-year-old ready to be that guy? Certainly, his recent performances at Triple-A Rochester (2.10 ERA over his last 13 starts, 1.47 ERA over his last seven starts) suggested he’s ready to get this opportunity.

But now it’s up to Cavalli to prove he can carry that success over to the highest level of the sport. There’s no question he has the repertoire (a high 90s fastball, both a curveball and a slider, plus an emerging changeup). And by all accounts he has the makeup as well.

But let’s keep one very important thing in mind: Tonight isn’t Strasburg 2.0. Cavalli doesn’t come here as the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. He didn’t dominate the minor leagues in short order the way Strasburg did a dozen years ago. He was the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 draft, currently rated as MLB Pipeline’s No. 58 overall prospect.

The matchup against a Joey Votto-less Reds lineup certainly looks favorable, as does a potential start Thursday afternoon against the woeful Athletics. But if you show up at Nationals Park tonight expecting 14 strikeouts and the lead spot on SportsCenter’s highlights, you’d probably be better off re-watching Strasburg’s electric debut against the Pirates.

The Nats don’t need Cavalli to be Strasburg. But they do need him to be good. Given all the calamities that have befallen this franchise since November 2019, they should be due for a positive development at last, right?