Green continues to search for contact while strikeouts have him sliding down ranks

PROSPECT REVIEW: ELIJAH GREEN

Age on opening day 2025: 21

How acquired: Drafted No. 5 overall in 2022 from IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla.

Ranking: No. 21 per MLB Pipeline, No. 19 per Baseball America

MLB ETA: 2026
* Projected by MLB Pipeline

Signing bonus: $6.5 million

2024 levels: Single-A Fredericksburg

2024 stats: 106 G, 468 PA, 414 AB, 74 R, 86 H, 14 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 54 RBIs, 39 SB, 3 CS, 46 BB, 206 SO, .208 AVG, .293 OBP, .355 SLG, .649 OPS

Quotable: “I think, honestly, it's all been a success. Just going out there and playing the game. Focus on my routines. Everyone has stuff to work on. Just continue to work on my things and continue with my routines. The numbers will show, results will end up showing. So I'm not really too stressed about it being a success or not.” – Elijah Green

2024 analysis: Green entered this season needing to prove he still belonged in the upper echelon of the Nationals farm system. The former No. 5 overall pick out of high school had his first full professional season marred by a wrist injury and bad offensive numbers.

He had a long way to go to catch up to fellow outfield prospects James Wood, Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell III, who were all invited to major league spring training. But while those young players rose through the minor league ranks this season, Green found himself still struggling at Single-A.

Finally healthy, Green played in a career-high 106 games with the FredNats. But his offensive output was not much better than last year and even worsened in some areas.

Green slashed .208/.293/.355 for a .649 OPS. The batting average was 10 points lower than last year. The on-base percentage and OPS decreased as well, while the slugging was the only percentage to increase from 2023 to 2024.

Some positives: He had more extra-base hits this year, including hitting double-digit home runs for the first time in his career. And he had more RBIs and stolen bases, though that may just be a result of playing more games.

The biggest issue continues to be the strikeouts. Green struck out 206 times to lead all minor leaguers, almost averaging at least two punchouts per game. Only one other minor league player struck out more than 189 times. And that 44 percent strikeout rate is two points higher than his rate from last year.

Green’s biggest bright spot on the season was his defense. He led the system and ranked ninth among minor league center fielders with a career-high eight assists while posting a .964 fielding percentage to be named the Nationals’ Defensive Player of the Year in the minors.

He also helped the FredNats win the Carolina League championship for the first time since the club moved to Fredericksburg in 2020. It was the franchise's first championship overall since 2014, when they were the Potomac Nationals.

2025 outlook: We’ve seen this season from Green before. Only this time there wasn’t a wrist injury that sidelined him for six weeks and affected his swing.

The hope coming into the year was that he would stay healthy and make more contact. He did one of those things. The other not so much.

The Nationals remain optimistic on Green’s future. He’ll turn 21 in one week, a reminder he’s still very young. The athletic tools are still there as evident by his baserunning, defense and raw power.

When he did make contact this year, it usually was a good result. His batting average on balls in play – which essentially removes homers and strikeouts from the equation – was .371. But again, the contact wasn’t consistent enough as shown by his incredibly high strikeout rate.

Thanks to their immense outfield depth, the Nats can afford to be a little more patient with Green. But after a year in which he didn’t play out of Single-A while everyone else moved up, questions about his future and potential are starting to swirl.

Once a top prospect in the organization, Green is now in danger of falling outside the Nats’ top 30 by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.

Green has to make drastic strides in 2025 and climb the organizational ladder or else risk being left behind by his fellow prospects.