Looking at stat projections for the Nats pitching staff

Yesterday we looked at FanGraphs' Steamer projections for everyone in the Nationals lineup to begin the 2018 season. Today we'll look at the projections for the prominent members of the Nationals' pitching staff ...

MAX SCHERZER
Actual 2017 stats: 16-6, 2.51 ERA, 200.2 IP, 268 SO, 0.90 WHIP, 6.0 WAR
Steamer 2018 projection: 15-9, 3.38 ERA, 207 IP, 257 SO, 1.09 WHIP, 5.0 WAR
Comment: While these numbers are still very good, if they came to fruition Scherzer would end up with his worst ERA since 2012, his highest WHIP since 2014 and his lowest WAR since 2012. Look, one of these years Scherzer is going to regress; he can't be this good forever. But it seems a bit premature to start thinking in those terms, at least without an injury being part of the equation. And if he throws 207 innings in 2018, he won't have dealt with any kind of significant injury.

STEPHEN STRASBURG
Actual 2017 stats: 15-4, 2.52 ERA, 175.1 IP, 204 SO, 1.02 WHIP, 5.6 WAR
Steamer 2018 projection: 14-8, 3.44 ERA, 188 IP, 216 SO, 1.15 WHIP, 4.3 WAR
Comment: The projection has Strasburg throwing the second-most innings in his career, which surmises that he will avoid the kind of injuries that often have limited his workload. His actual performance, though, gets a bit worse. Given how historically dominant he was down the stretch in 2017, that's understandable.

GIO GONZALEZ
Actual 2017 stats: 15-9, 2.96 ERA, 201 IP, 188 SO, 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 WAR
Steamer 2018 projection: 12-10, 4.17 ERA, 190 IP, 170 SO, 1.37 WHIP, 2.6 WAR
Comment: Gonzalez had his best season since 2012 last year, so it's not surprising that the projection includes a drop-off. That's a pretty big drop-off, though, and would result in the second-worst season of Gonzalez's career. Did he benefit from some luck in 2017, helping him escape jams that used to be his undoing? Yes. But in a contract year, you have to think there will be some extra motivation on the lefty's part to put together quality numbers.

TANNER ROARK
Actual 2017 stats: 13-11, 4.67 ERA, 181.1 IP, 166 SO, 1.34 WHIP, 2.4 WAR
Steamer 2018 projection: 11-10, 4.34 ERA, 171 IP, 144 SO, 1.36 WHIP, 2.2 WAR
Comment: If we're going to predict future results based on past results, Roark is due for a big 2018. He was great in 2014, not very good in 2015, great in 2016, not very good in 2017. He's like the San Francisco Giants of pitchers. Look, it's hard to know for sure how the right-hander is going to perform this year. But there's every reason to believe he'll be better (and more consistent) than he was last year.

SEAN DOOLITTLE
Actual 2017 stats: 2-0, 2.81 ERA, 24 SV, 51.1 IP, 62 SO, 0.86 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Steamer 2018 projections: 4-3, 3.35 ERA, 22 SV, 65 IP, 78 SO, 1.11 WHIP, 0.8 WAR
Comment: It's always tougher to project relievers than starters, especially those that haven't established long-term track records. Doolittle falls into that category, given his injury history in Oakland and the fact he just got his first extended opportunity to close this past summer and fall in D.C. So it's tough to say with much certainty what to expect in 2018. But based on what we saw once he joined the Nats, he should be better than these numbers suggest.

RYAN MADSON
Actual 2017 stats: 5-4, 1.83 ERA, 2 SV, 59 IP, 67 SO, 0.80 WHIP, 1.9 WAR
Steamer 2018 projections: 4-3, 3.26 ERA, 14 SV, 65 IP, 70 SO, 1.18 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
Comment: It's rare for a pitcher to have the best season of his career at 36, but that's what Madson did in 2017. The Nationals benefited greatly from it once they acquired him in July, but now they have to hope he can keep it up at 37. Madson has gone to great (and unconventional) lengths to keep his body and arm in good shape. History says there will be a drop-off, unless he can buck conventional wisdom again.

BRANDON KINTZLER
Actual 2017 stats: 4-3, 3.03 ERA, 29 SV, 71.1 IP, 39 SO, 1.15 WHIP, 0.9 WAR
Steamer 2018 projections: 3-3, 3.99 ERA, 2 SV, 55 IP, 1.37 WHIP, 0.3 WAR
Comment: Kintzler's All-Star season came a bit out of nowhere, but the veteran right-hander excelled both as the Twins closer and then as the Nationals' seventh-inning man. He chose to return to D.C. on a modest, two-year deal. Advanced stats don't love him, because he doesn't miss bats. But he excels at getting weak contact, and if he can continue to do that his 2018 could look very much like his 2017.