projections

Added 2024 opponent - expectations

October 20, 2023, 8:00am

Steve Melewski

Orioles

Maybe even the Pecota projection system will expect the Orioles to be good in the 2024 season. Yeah, crazy talk, I know.

When the 2024 season begins the Orioles will have an opponent that is hard to define and one that has no win-loss record or playoff appearances. There are no advanced stats or metrics for it. It is expectations.

For the first time in a long time the team will be expected to do well and maybe even favored to win the AL East. This is uncharted territory for the Orioles in recent years.

Even the 2023 team, which had a stated goal to take the 83 wins from the year before, build on that and make the playoffs, had plenty of doubters.

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How Nats pitchers are projected to perform in 2019

January 28, 2019, 5:30pm

Mark Zuckerman

Nationals

How Nats pitchers are projected to perform in 2019

Yesterday, we looked at FanGraphs.com's' Steamer projections for the Nationals' primary position players, an interesting assortment of optimism and pessimism, depending on the individual. Today we'll look at those projections for the Nationals pitching staff. Fair warning: This one trends more toward the pessimistic end of the spectrum. Here we go ... MAX SCHERZER Actual 2018 stats: 18-7, 2.53 ERA, 220.2 IP, 300 SO, 0.91 WHIP, 7.2 WAR Steamer 2019 projection: 15-8, 3.13 ERA, 208 IP, 271 SO,...

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How Nats position players are projected to hit in 2019

January 27, 2019, 7:09pm

Mark Zuckerman

Nationals

How Nats position players are projected to hit in 2019

As spring training draws closer and closer, it's reasonable to start wondering what kind of seasons individual players are likely to produce. No, we still don't know every player who will be part of the Nationals' 2019 roster, but we do know the vast majority of them at this point. Projecting stats from year to year is a tricky business, but there are no shortage of analytical formulas out there that attempt to do just this. One of the most popular is FanGraphs.com's Steamer projections,...

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Looking at stat projections for the Nats pitching staff

January 03, 2018, 6:05pm

Mark Zuckerman

Nationals

Looking at stat projections for the Nats pitching staff

Yesterday we looked at FanGraphs' Steamer projections for everyone in the Nationals lineup to begin the 2018 season. Today we'll look at the projections for the prominent members of the Nationals' pitching staff ... MAX SCHERZER Actual 2017 stats: 16-6, 2.51 ERA, 200.2 IP, 268 SO, 0.90 WHIP, 6.0 WAR Steamer 2018 projection: 15-9, 3.38 ERA, 207 IP, 257 SO, 1.09 WHIP, 5.0 WAR Comment: While these numbers are still very good, if they came to fruition Scherzer would end up with his worst ERA...

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Looking at stat projections for the Nats lineup

January 02, 2018, 6:48pm

Mark Zuckerman

Nationals

Looking at stat projections for the Nats lineup

The 2018 Nationals are going to look a lot like the 2017 Nationals. With only a handful of exceptions, the same group of players that won 97 games last season is going to be back and making another run at it this season. So while many other clubs' fortunes will be predicated in large part on how much they improved their roster during the offseason, the Nats' fortunes probably boil down more to this question: How much better (or worse) will their returning players be? We won't know the...