Nationals need strong September and collapse by Mets

The Nationals, picked to win the World Series by virtually every prognosticator across the country, are in a bind: They are going to need a strong September and a collapse by the Mets to play in October.

The situation is this: If the Mets, leaders in the National League East, go 20-17 in their final 37 games, they'll have 89 wins. That means the Nationals would have to win 26 of 38 to tie.

Players prefer to talk about short-term rather than long-term. This is the time of year a team needs experienced players, Nationals manager Matt Williams says.

"Veteran plays have the ability to slow the game down more than the younger players," Williams said.

Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth and closer Jonathan Papelbon have been in similar predicaments with other teams and qualified for the postseason.

On Aug. 26, 2007, the Phillies were six games out first place in the National League East, but won the division and advanced to the postseason on the final day of the season.

That was the year the Phillies were down seven with 17 games to play and came back to overtake the Mets.

The Phillies went 17-11 in September and 13-4 in their final 17, and won two of three at home against the Nationals on the final weekend of the season.

On that final Sunday, the Phillies beat the Nationals 6-1 and were helped when the Marlins beat the Mets 8-1 in New York.

The Phillies won the NL East and were swept by Colorado in the Division Series.

"I have cold hard facts to draw from," Werth says. "I haven't lost faith. I believe it can happen. I believe in this team, in my teammates."

Werth doesn't worry about the talk of the Nationals' talent. He said winning is all about heart and hustle. He called the word an "illusion" and said, "Talent is what people who don't play talk about."

Papelbon was a closer for the Red Sox when they were 5 1/2 games out in the American League East on Aug. 26, 2004.

The Red Sox went 21-11 to finish the season, and while they didn't win the division, they went to the postseason as a wild card.

They beat the Angels, Yankees and Cardinals on their way to their first World Series title since 1918.

"It seems like we were always chasing down the Yankees," Papelbon said.

What'd he learn from 2004? He learned how to focus on the game and how to forget the standings and statistics.

"Experience teaches you how to do that," Papelbon said. "You have to learn how to focus on the next pitch, the next inning, the next game. I don't know how many saves I have. I don't know what my ERA is or what our team record is.

"None of that matters now. All that matters is thinking about what you have to do on the field and all of that will come together."