Previewing tonight's Cy Young Award announcement

Max Scherzer tonight could become only the fifth pitcher in history to win his fourth Cy Young Award, only the third in history to win three in a row.

But don't get your hopes up too much, because the odds are heavily stacked against the Nationals right-hander.

Even though Scherzer arguably was better in 2018 than he was when he won the National League Cy Young Award in 2016 and 2017, Jacob deGrom was even better this season and is decidedly favored to be revealed as the winner during tonight's announcement show.

If he doesn't win, Scherzer is all but guaranteed to finish as the runner-up, no small feat in itself. It's hard to find fault with the right-hander's performance this season, when he led the league in wins (18), innings (220 2/3), strikeouts (300), WHIP (0.911), pitches (3,493) and strikes (2,406). His 2.53 ERA was barely higher than his 2.51 mark from the previous year, and he both raised his strikeout rate while lowering his walk rate.

In a normal season, all of that would have made Scherzer a lock for another Cy Young. This, however, was no normal season for deGrom.

The Mets right-hander finished with a 1.70 ERA. How rare was that? Well, it was only the sixth time a qualified pitcher posted an ERA that low since the mound was lowered in 1969. Yeah, that's rare.

DeGrom also stood out for his consistency. He closed out his season with 24 consecutive quality starts, establishing a major league record in the process.

What about that 10-9 record? No starter has ever won the Cy Young Award after winning fewer than 13 games (Felix Hernandez in 2010, Fernando Valenzuela during the strike-shortened 1981 season). Doesn't that matter?

Not nearly as much as it used to, if at all. Modern voters have made it clearer with each passing year that wins aren't an accurate reflection of a pitcher's true performance, and deGrom turned into the ultimate test case for that theory this season. He did, after all, take a loss or a no-decision 16 times this year when giving up two or fewer earned runs. Give him some run support in only half of those, and he would have wound up an 18-game winner.

So it's fully expected deGrom will have beaten out Scherzer when voting results by the Baseball Writers' Association of America are revealed tonight. And the margin of victory probably won't be all that close.

But let's not shortchange Scherzer here and try to diminish what he achieved this season, because he achieved an awful lot.

In reaching the coveted 300-strikeout mark, Scherzer joined an ultra-exclusive club of pitching greats. In the last 30 years, only Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale had done that. And from that group, only Johnson, Martinez and Kershaw struck out 300 while also maintaining an ERA of 2.53 or better like Scherzer did.

Scherzer's durability shouldn't be glossed over, either. He not only led the league in innings, he threw 243 more pitches and 197 more strikes than anyone else in the NL. All while preventing batters from reaching base better than anyone else in the league.

And just to make sure deGrom isn't the only pitcher we feel empathy for due to a lack of run support, let the record show that 10 times this season Scherzer allowed two or fewer earned runs and still took the loss or a no-decision. Flip half of those and he'd have been a 23-game winner.

No, it's probably not going to be enough to propel Scherzer to his fourth Cy Young and elevate him into a class with Roger Clemens (seven-time winner), Johnson (five), Steve Carlton (four) and Greg Maddux (four).

But think about it this way: Scherzer has a stronger case today for the Hall of Fame than he did one year ago, thanks to his latest brilliant season. Even if it didn't end with him receiving any hardware.