Steve Mears: An analysis of Tanner Roark's pitch count

If you missed it, Tanner Roark threw a masterful 15-strikeout, two-hit shutout gem on Saturday against the Minnesota Twins. For a while there, it looked like if Roark could keep his pitch count down, he could go after the record that Roger Clemens set on April 29, 1986 with 20 strikeouts in a game, which was then equaled again by Clemens in 1996 and matched by Kerry Wood in 1998.

Roark was at 96 pitches to end the fifth inning as he threw 23 pitches in that inning, and you knew that Roark wouldn't make it.

Roark had a relatively easy top of the sixth inning, throwing 12 pitches to go to 108 pitches. Roark's career high was 112 pitches in a game.

The scenario you analyze at this time is his career high that he has handled, how he reacted to pitch counts around 110, and the point in the season, your bullpen's status and the score of the game. This was Roark's fourth start to the season, the Nationals were up 2-0 and the bullpen was fresh with a day-off coming two days later. It was clear that Dusty would have to go to the bullpen given the high pitch count in the sixth inning.

My conclusion as I was commenting after the sixth as it unfolded was that Roark's day should be over after throwing 108 pitches. You congratulate him on a great start and you go to the bullpen. The season is a marathon, and there is no reason to press him beyond where he was at.

Manager Dusty Baker and pitching coach Mike Maddux sent Roark back out there for the seventh inning, and Roark put up zeros and ended his outing with 121 pitches. This game might not have an effect on Roark's next start or a start in August, September or October. Nobody will ever know for sure.

Let us go back and take a look at Roark's pitch counts and subsequent starts as he set season highs:

* In 2013, Roark's high pitch count was 101 and in his next outing he gave up four runs over five innings.

* In 2014, Roark's high pitch count was 112 (twice) and after the first time, he gave up one earned run over seven innings in his next outing but had an extra day's rest. After his next outing in which he matched his season-high pitch count of 112 on regular rest, he gave up five runs over 6 1/3 innings.

* In 2015, Roark went from a season high of 66 pitches to 92 pitches, and in his next start after he threw 92 pitches on regular rest, he gave up four earned runs over 5 2/3 innings.

Is there any correlation here or is it just coincidence based on high pitch counts and rest?

Steve Mears blogs about the Nationals for Talk Nats. Follow the blog on Twitter: @TalkNats2. His thoughts on the Nationals will appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our site. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.