Steve Mears: Could Nats take better advantage of Trea Turner's speed?

Are the Nationals taking enough advantage of Trea Turner's speed? On the surface, the answers is yes, as Turner has 27 stolen bases and is now 10th in the major leagues in stolen bases, but consider that Turner has been on first or second base more than 40 times this season where he did not steal. In the game of inches, the Nationals could rearrange the lineup to improve Turner's chances to steal even more bases and be more aggressive. Combine smart with aggressive and you improve your odds of success.

Turner's on-base-percentage is .473 leading off the game. He has been on base 26 times to lead off the game, minus his two home runs and two triples, and has been in position to steal just one base 22 times (18 times to steal second base and four times to steal third base). But stealing second base also gives you the opportunity to steal third base, which gives Turner a total of 40 total opportunities to steal second and third base in the first inning. He has nine stolen bases in the first inning, but has been caught three times.

Part of the problem in the run strategy is the batters after Turner in the order. Since most catchers are right-handed, Turner is generally standing on first base with Jayson Werth in the batter's box, which allows the pitcher to pitch out and pitch outside to give the catchers a higher percentage to throw out Turner. In small advantages, Turner has greater odds of stealing with a left-handed batter in the batter's box with the right-handed catcher. Turner also has a greater opportunity for a secondary lead with a lefty in the batter's box when he is on first base. To steal third base, Turner has an improved probability to be successful with a right-handed batter in the batter's box.

Let's look at the example if Bryce Harper was batting second with Turner on base. The first advantage is Turner's probability of stealing second base increases with the left-handed batter and right-handed catcher, but also consider Harper could see more fastballs instead of off-speed pitches, which is an advantage to Harper, who is hitting .330 this season against the two-seam fastball, and .261 overall against all fastballs. However, Harper's batting average could go up even higher if he is sitting on fastballs.

The next advantage is with a successful steal of second base by Turner, it allows Harper to pull the baseball to move Turner to third base, but also increases the odds that Harper could also walk with first base open. With Turner on first base, the opposing team might not go into a shift as Turner could steal second and keep running to third base. If Turner holds on first base and the opposing team is not in a shift, there is a large hole opened up for Harper with the first baseman holding Turner.

Fast forward to who would bat third in the batting order if Harper bats second, and consider Anthony Rendon for that spot for several reasons, with the main reason is to keep alternating left- and right-handed batters to thwart late-inning appearances by left-handed specialists. But for the success rate for stolen bases with Turner on second base and a right-handed batter like Rendon batting, Turner has a higher probability to steal third base with the right-handed batter's protection.

Runs in the postseason are at a premium and lineup formation could help to take advantage of the speed tools with both Turner and Harper, while the other advantage is spacing out the left-handed batters.

Steve Mears blogs about the Nationals for Talk Nats. Follow the blog on Twitter: @TalkNats2. His thoughts on the Nationals will appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our site. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.