What can be gleaned from spring training statistics?

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. - Now that we've reached the midpoint of spring training - which is about a week longer than usual due to the World Baseball Classic - it might be a good time to talk about spring training statistics and what can be learned from them.

In a word, little.

A wise baseball sage once cautioned me against putting too much stock into spring or September numbers. Simply put, statistics are like a pushover parent; with enough cajoling, batting of the eyes and pouty lips, you can pretty much make them do anything you want.

For example, as of this morning, there are 17 players in Nationals camp with batting averages of .300 or better. Some of these are guys brought over from minor league camp to fill out the waning innings of spring training games, so there isn't a large sample size. But you take a look at reserve catcher Jhonatan Solano, who is 10-for-12 with three doubles, a triple and four RBIs, and a robust slash line of .833/.846/1.250 and you can't help but take notice. Until you realize that he's off to play for his native Colombia in the WBC, is getting a lot of at-bats before his departure and is a career .184/.222/.523 hitter in spring (and a career .184/.222/.301 hitter in 43 major league games).

That's a good sign of a guy who worked hard in the offseason to get ready for camp, knowing that he had to produce because there's a glut of catchers in camp. Solano is nothing more than a depth piece in the organization, valued because he knows the pitchers and does his work without complaint. He fills a niche, and though his .833 batting average is eye-opening, he's a couple of 0-for-3 days away from coming back down to Earth.

You're allowed to get excited that third baseman Anthony Rendon is slashing .385/.385/.769 with authority, because it's a signal he's healthy and ready to go. Ditto for newly acquired center fielder Adam Eaton and his 4-for-13 start as he jumps around the batting order (though his .286 on-base percentage seems out of character). And if you put stock into how young players react to their first tastes of major league pitching, you can salivate over what might be with someone like 22-year-old outfielder Andrew Stevenson, whose .353/.389/1.036 line looks mighty promising.

Then there's outfielder Michael A. Taylor, who has started this spring on fire, posting a .389/.389/.778 slash. He's driven in a team-high five runs and his two homers are tied with Bryce Harper, whose .308/.438/.846 line looks a lot more like the 2015 National League MVP than the guy who struggled to find consistency in the second half of last season. Then you remember that Taylor led the Nats with five homers and drove in 16 runs with a .453/.491/.849 slash last spring - and promptly forgot how to hit once the regular season began and got a chance to play because of Ben Revere's oblique strain. Taylor needs a good spring, since he's in danger of losing his spot on the 25-man roster.

The lesson here: Take spring numbers with a grain of salt. Or sand, if you prefer an analogy to go along with the sunny Florida climate. (Full disclosure: It's been pretty windy and cloudy the last couple of days, not exactly the best of beach weather.)

The fact that first baseman Ryan Zimmerman is hitless in his first five at-bats - though seems to be striking the ball with authority, which is a good sign - should be no more trifling than the fact that Zimmerman slashed .333/.349/.667 in 14 games a year ago. Sure, left-hander Sammy Solis didn't look too good giving up a three-run homer that lost Sunday's game for the Nationals, and his 13.50 ERA apprears pretty unappetizing. But not as bad as lefty Nick Lee's 27.00 mark (albeit in one-third of an inning, after which he left with an apparent arm injury) or righty Braulio Lara's 21.60 ERA in two outings covering 1 2/3 innings.

None of the pitchers expected to populate the Nationals' starting five - righties Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross, and lefty Gio González - have yielded an earned run over six starts covering 14 innings. But Scherzer has yet to throw a pitch in a game while he recovers from a slow-healing fractured knuckle on his right ring finger and seven of those innings belong to Roark, who is now with Team USA in the WBC. The numbers might look enticing, but perspective is critical.

A lot of things affect how hitters hit and pitchers throw in spring training. Some of them are under control of the hitters and pitchers, others are not. The East Coast of Florida is notorious for still winds blowing in at its ballparks, and gales are a pitcher's best friend, turning no-doubters into loud outs. Unless the winds are blowing out, in which case pitchers curse the gusts that turn routine fly balls into home runs. Similarly, we're not talking about pristinely manicured infields all the time, and a bad-hop single that strikes a pebble that eluded a groundskeeper looks like a ringing liner in the box score. Guys who rely on curveballs and changeups love the Florida humidity because it helps them grip the baseball better than they could, say, in the dry heat of an Arizona desert. They always seem to be having their way with the hitters early on.

If pitchers are throwing against lineups populated by established major leaguer hitters, the results against them lend more credence. If a team sends a bunch of backups and Double-A guys to The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches for a split-squad game, there's no column in the statistics to distinguish that fact. Ever wonder why some big league closers pitch the third or fourth innings in early spring outings? Because they prefer to gauge their stuff against real hitters, not guys trying to make an impression who might be overmatched by pure heat and off-speed stuff.

In another couple of weeks, when closers are working the ninth and starters are stretched out to six innings, you'll get a clearer picture of who's doing well and who's struggling. They'll be working against something more closely resembling major league lineups deeper into games. The Victor Robleses of the world will be back in minor league camp, and - hopefully - the Scherzers and Strasburgs will be nearing peak form. It's easy to say the pitchers are ahead of the hitters at this point in camp; in no time, the bats will have caught up to the arms. Then we'll see which pitchers are ready and which are in danger of losing a spot on the staff.

Heck, there are some pitchers who are told to use their precious spring training innings working on specific things, like a single pitch. I remember one spring training years ago when a veteran pitcher making his third start of spring and due to go four innings, was told to spend two innings throwing nothing but a middling changeup to try to get a better handle on the pitch. The results were terrible; it looked like he was lobbing in fat batting practice offerings and the opposition teed off. His ERA skyrocketed. But there was no cause for concern. By the next start, when he could use his fastball like he normally would, he looked like his familiar self.

Spring training means very little in the bigger picture. That the Nationals are 5-4 right now doesn't indicate they're a lock to repeat as NL East champs - nor does it mean they're going to struggle to compete with the Mets for the division title. Winning the Grapefruit League is a hollow accomplishment. Really, does anything before April 3 count at all?

If you've ever bitten into a chocolate from a Whitman's Sampler, expecting creamy vanilla and finding coconut consistency, you have an idea what spring stats are like. They may look deliciously appealing, but you don't always get what you see.