A few thoughts on the O's-Phillies trade today

With all the speculation that the O’s might be trading some prospects at the trade deadline and amid recent reports via ESPN that the club might be willing to deal Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins, it was another long-time O's player leaving the club.

Austin Hays, a veteran of 557 games over parts of seven seasons with the Orioles, was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The return was right-handed reliever Seranthony Domínguez and outfielder Cristian Pache.

Domínguez, 29, provides help for the Baltimore bullpen, which allowed late-game runs the last two days at Miami.

Domínguez is 3-2 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.222 WHIP on the year over 36 innings. Over the last three seasons, since 2022, he has a 3.74 ERA and 1.256 WHIP.

He has a team option for $8 million for next season, so he is not a rental if the club doesn’t want him to be.

Domínguez is one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the sport, in the top five percent, per Statcast, in fastball velocity, averaging 97.5 mph on his four-seamer and 97.9 on his two-seam sinker. He is well rested, as his last game was Monday at Minnesota, when he allowed one run over one inning.

His best stretch of this season was from May 3-July 12, when he posted a 1.21 ERA and .434 opponent OPS. But in three games since July 12 he has allowed five runs over 3 1/3 innings.

He’s not been considered a right-handed specialist, but this year he allows a .859 OPS (and .752 in his career) against lefty batters and .611 versus right-handed hitters.

He scores very well and among the top 10 percent of all pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage allowed, and in the top 17 percent in breaking ball run value, due to a strong slider.

But he does not score well (bottom 16 percent) in allowing barrel percentage and, where once he was a solid groundball pitcher, this year he ranks in the bottom 20 percent in getting grounders.

His postseason numbers are quite good.

In the 2023 playoffs he did not allow an earned run over 5 1/3 innings. In 16 career playoff innings, he has a 1.13 ERA, allowing two earned runs with four walks while getting 25 strikeouts and surrendering 1.063 WHIP. He is averaging 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings in the postseason.

Pache, a reserve outfielder, is a good defender. But this year has hit just .202/.288/.269/.557 with an 11.0 walk rate and 36.4 strikeout rate. He is out of options.

For what it’s worth, he’s been a good pinch-hitter this year, going 2-for-5 with two doubles and two walks.

On defense he has produced three Defensive Runs Saved. That would tie Colton Cowser for the O’s team lead.

Hays, 29, was batting .255/.316/.395/.711. He produced a 106 OPS+ this year and 107 for his Baltimore career. The guy has been a gamer and clubhouse leader for the Orioles. His now former teammates respect him greatly and he will be missed in that clubhouse. We can't forget what he meant to the O's rebuilding efforts that turned this team around from a loser into a winner. 

Hays has been in the organization since the Orioles drafted him in round three in 2016.

In 93 plate appearances since June 2, Hays hit .329 with a .952 OPS.