I filled this space yesterday with three players who improved from 2016 to 2017 in a specific area and must continue to trend upward and avoid reverting to previous form.
Let's spin it the other way and look at three players who declined in a certain area and must reverse course.
There are lots of candidates in lots of statistical categories. Like shooting fish in a barrel. I just chose these four to pace myself. It's still only November.
Can Kevin Gausman recapture his touch versus left-handed hitters?
Gausman would make a lousy president of his own fan club. He's too harsh of a critic.
Gausman pulled no punches at PNC Park while evaluating his season following a 10-1 loss to the Pirates. He wanted one more start, got it and held the Rays to one run over seven innings in the season finale.
There were improvements that Gausman glossed over, including career highs in wins (11), starts (34), innings (186 2/3) and strikeouts (179). But he also averaged a career-worst 3.4 walks per nine innings and registered a 1.495 WHIP.
Perhaps a more subtle difference was how Gausman fared against left-handed hitters. They posted a .232/.272/.387 slash line against him in 2016, compared to .288/.345/.467 by right-handers. They hit .275/.361/.446 against him in 2017, compared to .288/.339/.469 by right-handers.
We've established that Gausman is pretty consistent when facing righties.
Left-handed batters didn't own Gausman this year, but they were more problematic and he needs to regain control.
Gausman held opponents to a .200 average with runners in scoring position in 2016, but they batted .267 this year. Certainly not an outrageous average against, but it's another area where he'd like to improve.
Will Mark Trumbo go back to mashing right-handers?
It doesn't require in-depth analysis to draw the conclusion that Trumbo suffered a big drop-off in production in 2017. He hit 23 home runs after leading the majors with 47 the previous summer, and his RBI total dropped from 108 to 65. His presence in the lineup faded over the final month as the Orioles fell out of contention and the slump maintained its blood-draining grip on him.
Trumbo batted .221/.280/.379 against right-handers this summer, compared to the .284/.347/.584 slash line he posted in 2016. Thirty-seven of his 47 home runs came against them as he won his first Silver Slugger Award, but he hit 15 against them this year.
To be fair, Trumbo improved his slash line against left-handers from .173/.223/.385 in 2016 to .272/.314/.449. The goal now is to balance those splits.
It didn't really matter who was on the mound in September, when Trumbo went 14-for-73 (.192) with three home runs, seven RBIs and 25 strikeouts. He just couldn't regain his stroke and appeared to be pressing, a common occurrence in the clubhouse as the losses piled up.
If the season started today, Trumbo likely would be the designated hitter while Trey Mancini played left field and someone else was plugged into right - whether it be Austin Hays, Joey Rickard, Anthony Santander or newly acquired Jaycob Brugman. We'd have to take into account the opposing starter and wonder why the season was starting in November.
The new CBA perhaps? I didn't read the entire thing.
There has been lots of speculation that the Orioles will try to move Trumbo over the winter while addressing their needs in the rotation. They'll continue to check the interest level of other clubs and see whether there's a match, which also takes into account the contracts on both sides.
Can Manny Machado regain his edge in the field?
Machado was a finalist for a Gold Glove Award at third base and he continued to make spectacular stops and throws that were replayed countless times. His range and arm can drop jaws. But he underwent a statistical drop-off that sneaked up on some folks as they received their ballots for Gold Glove voting.
Machado committed 14 errors in 156 games, doubling his total in 114 games last season. He registered a 10.4 ultimate zone rating in 2016 and a 4.7 UZR in 2017. He had a 12.6 UZR/150 in 2016 and a 4.9 UZR/150 in 2017. His defensive runs saved (DRS) fell from 13 to six. His defensive wins above replacement (dWar) fell from 2.2 to 1.0. But his out of zone plays (OOZ) improved from 46 to 57.
Machado is still one of the finest third basemen I've seen in all of my years following baseball as a fan and reporter, and Brooks Robinson was playing the position in the first game I attended at Memorial Stadium. He's something special and there's a reason why so many people in the organization are hesitant to move him over to shortstop. I've heard "difference-maker" used to describe him at the hot corner approximately 500 times - this month. But he wasn't quite up to the standards he's set and now we wait to find out whether he remains at third base in 2018 and if so, whether he can improve statistically.
It can be argued that it's more important to the Orioles that Machado improve on his .230/.296/.445 slash line in the first half. What the heck was that about?
I'm straying a bit from my format and including Brad Brach in the following:
Can Brach keep the tank full in the second half?
It happened in 2016 and again this year. Brach's production tailed off as the season wore on, though not to the point where he became a straight liability and needed to be avoided like tofu turkey.
During his All-Star season in 2016, Brach went 6-1 with a 0.91 ERA and 0.831 WHIP in the first half and 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in the second. Opponents batted .155 against him in the first half and .270 after the break. He posted ERAs of 1.26 in April, 0.71 in May, 1.10 in June, 1.42 in July, 5.06 in August and 3.65 in Sept./Oct.
In his final appearance on Oct. 1 in New York, Brach surrendered four runs on two hits and two walks in one-third of an inning.
Fast-forward to the 2017 season and you'll find that Brach went 2-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.861 WHIP in the first half and 2-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in the second. Opponents batted .167 against him in the first half and .257 after the break. He posted ERAs of 1.93 in April, 5.40 in May, 1.46 in June, 2.25 in July, 4.09 in August and 4.26 in Sept./Oct.
In his final appearance on Oct. 1 in St. Petersburg, Fla., Brach surrendered five runs on four hits and two walks in one-third of an inning.
It's a sharp mirror image except for the May ERA this year.
Brach is tied for fourth in the American League with 138 appearances since the start of the 2016 season. Manager Buck Showalter has sought ways to provide extra breathers for Brach during the rough stretches.
There's no doubt that Brach will set a stronger finish as one of his goals for 2018.
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