The Rule 5 draft is the last event of the Winter Meetings and it is now about a month away. This year it takes place on Dec. 10 in Nashville. Any player selected in this draft must remain on the selecting team's 25-man roster for the entire 2016 season or be offered back to his original club.
Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft when they are not on their organization's 40-man roster and:
* were signed at 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or
* were signed at 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.
We usually think of the Rule 5 in terms of players the Orioles might select and this draft has produced Ryan Flaherty, T.J McFarland and Jason Garcia for the organization. But we also need to look at this draft in terms of which players the Orioles might add to their 40-man roster this month so they cannot be lost to another team next month.
Before this draft last year, the Orioles added pitchers like Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Oliver Drake and Eddie Gamboa so they could not be lost to another team.
Right-hander Mychal Givens was not protected last winter and anyone could have taken him in the Rule 5 draft last December. But he was coming off a 2014 season where he walked 39 over 58 2/3 innings. The Orioles helped him improved his control and command and we all saw what he did this year in both Bowie and Baltimore.
Will the Orioles add anyone this year to protect them from the Rule 5? Here is a list of O's minor leaguers currently not on the 40-man and eligible for the Rule 5 draft:
Nick Additon, LHP
Rochendrick Alexander, OF
Michael Almanzar, 3B
Derrick Bleeker, RHP
Parker Bridwell, RHP
Cesar Cabral, LHP
Anthony Caronia, SS
Glynn Davis, OF
Alexander De La Cruz, C
Fernando Escarra, RHP
Gene Escat, RHP
David Frietas, C
Santiago Garrido, RHP
Luis Gonzalez LHP
Miguel Gonzalez RHP
Ivan Hernandez, RHP
Francisco Jimenez, RHP
Corban Joseph, 2B
Branden Kline, RHP
Adam Kolarek, LHP
Oswill Lartiguez, OF
Quincy Latimore, OF
Lu Franc-cito LeFranc, RHP
Ronarsy Ledesma, INF
Chris Lee, LHP
Ozzie Martinez, SS
Cesar Medina, RHP
Yermin Mercedes, C
Alirio Negrette, LHP
Chris Obrien, C
Bennett Parry, LHP
Audry Perez, C
Elias Pinales, LHP
David Richardson, RHP
Daniel Rodriguez, LHP
Ramon Rodriguez, RHP
Richard Rodriguez, RHP
Garabez Rosa, SS
William Russell, C
Aderlin Santa, 3B
Wynston Sawyer, C
Janser Severino, RHP
Matt Taylor, LHP
Ashur Tolliver, LHP
Dennis Torres, RHP
Andrew Triggs, RHP
Austin Urban, RHP
Sebastian Vader, RHP
Brady Wager, RHP
Michael Zouzalik, RHP
Note that several key minor league players don't yet have enough service time and cannot be taken in the Rule 5 - a list that would include players like Trey Mancini, Chance Sisco and Jomar Reyes.
Of these players right now, the only one that seems like quite likely to be added to the 40-man is Lee, a left-handed starter the Orioles acquired from Houston in May for two international bonus slots.
Some see him as a slam dunk to be added. Lee, who turned 23 in August, went 3-6 with a 3.07 ERA in 14 starts with Single-A Frederick after the trade and went 4-2 with a 3.08 ERA in seven starts for Double-A Bowie. He showed mid 90s velocity with a decent curveball and changeup. He should start next year in the Bowie rotation with a chance to move up to Triple-A.
There are others on this list the club might take a hard look at adding to the 40-man. That group includes Bridwell, Tolliver and Triggs. But my guess is that Lee is the only player added.
More free agent predictions: Here are two more articles making free agent predictions and the speculation is running rampant at this point. This one is from CBSSports.com. This one is from the New York Post.
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