A look back and a prediction as draft day arrives

By Steve Melewski

Orioles

June 09, 2020, 1:00pm

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Draft day is here. The First-Year Player Draft begins tonight at 7 p.m. and the draft will be televised by both ESPN and MLB Network. The Orioles will have two picks this evening when they select No. 2 and No. 30 overall.

Their first pick is the second pick of a first round that will last 29 picks. Their second pick is the first selection of Competitive Balance Round A that will comprise picks 30 through 37. The draft resumes Thursday at 5 p.m. with rounds two through five.

The Orioles have never held the No. 2 pick until now. They picked No. 1 twice, selecting LSU pitcher Ben McDonald in 1989 and Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman in 2019.

So that means tonight will be fourth time since the draft began in 1965 that they've selected No. 3 or higher. They drafted Manny Machado No. 3 in 2010. And yes, they would like to score that big with their top pick tonight.

This will be the 12th top-five pick in club history. This list includes Gregg Olson (No. 4, 1988), McDonald, Jeffrey Hammonds (No. 4, 1992), Adam Loewen (No. 4, 2002) Matt Wieters (No. 5, 2007), Brian Matusz (No. 4, 2008), Matt Hobgood (No. 5, 2009), Machado, Dylan Bundy (No. 4, 2011), Kevin Gausman (No. 4, 2012) and Rutschman.

There will another rare event for the Orioles in this draft. For just the second time in club history they will have two selections in the 30s. They hold picks No. 30 and No. 39.

That only happened previously in 1989. And unless you are related to them, you probably have not heard either of outfielder Keith Schmidt, taken No. 31 that year, or right-hander Tommy Taylor, taken No. 33. Neither reached the majors and Schmidt never got out of A ball. Taylor pitched briefly at Double-A.

I found it a bit surprising that the Orioles have only picked 17 times in the 30s in the history of the draft. The not great news is that only twice did they get players with those picks that had productive major league careers. They selected outfielder Don Baylor No. 39 in 1967 and pitcher Arthur Rhodes No. 34 in 1988.

Since 2000, the Orioles have drafted six players in the 30s. It started with third baseman Tripper Johnson, taken No. 32 in 2000. He signed for $1.050 million, but never made it as far as Triple-A. His career ended in the Single-A Carolina League in 2007.A year later they took high school shortstop Bryan Bass No. 31 and he got a $1.15 million bonus. He had a career .680 OPS on the O's farm and reached as high as Double-A. They drafted right-hander Pedro Beato No. 32 in 2006 and he signed for $1 million. He did pitch in the majors, but not for the Orioles, and most recently was in MLB in 2017. But he has a career -1.0 WAR. In 2013 the O's took promising outfielder Josh Hart No. 37 and he signed for $1.45 million. But he never even made it into the O's top 10 prospects, much less the majors, and he last played in 2017. He might be better known as the minor league player that then-manager Buck Showalter asked to write a paper about Frank Robinson.

The jury is out on the last two O's drafted in that range. They have plenty of hopes for Ryan Mountcastle, taken No. 36 in 2015. He is the 2019 O's Minor League Player of the Year. In 2018 they selected Oregon State shortstop Cadyn Grenier No. 37.

Still expecting it to be Martin: While I feel there can be a strong case made for the Orioles selecting pitcher Asa Lacy and maybe even one for going underslot with their No. 2 pick, I still think they take Vanderbilt's Austin Martin tonight. Most mock drafts for a while have had Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson going No. 1 to Detroit and then Martin to Baltimore. I think we see exactly that tonight.

Martin's strengths begin with the well above-average hit tool, which analysts have rated as high as 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He hits for a high average and adds a high on-base percentage. His bat speed and exit velocities are very strong, as are his contact rates. His power may still have another level to get to. He's considered at least an average defender and he could wind up at second base, third base or center field.

For his Vandy career he hit .368/.474/.532 with a 1.007 OPS and a strikeout rate of just 13 percent. He fanned just twice in 69 plate appearances while batting .377/.507/.660 in 16 games this season. He's age 21 and an above-average runner as well. I think he'll be the pick tonight.

In the draft prospect rankings of both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com, the top six players are from the college ranks. If the O's do take Martin first, there should be plenty of pitchers around for their next two picks if they want to go that way. Both outlets have 12 pitchers ranked among their first 25 prospects and 25 among the first 50.

Here is a list of all-time No. 2 picks in the draft. It's a list that shows some recent successful picks, including Alex Bregman (by Houston and Mike Elias) and Kris Bryant of the Cubs. Historically, some hits here have been with the selections of Reggie Jackson, Will Clark, J.D Drew, Justin Verlander, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas.

Some of my recent draft coverage here: We've posted a lengthy list of draft articles in the last few weeks here. If you'd like to review them, click on the links:

* An interview with MLBPipeline.com's Jim Callis plus a video interview.

* A close look at Vanderbilt's Austin Martin and quotes from his college coach.

* Baseball America's J.J. Cooper on how O's could go underslot at No. 2.

* A few reasons the O's might consider Texas A&M lefty Asa Lacy.

* A video with the O's Brad Ciolek on the club's draft prep.

* A video with the The Athletic's Keith Law, who is high on Martin.

* A look at the O's pursuit of undrafted players.