A preview of the draft and the O's outlook with MLBPipeline.com's Jim Callis

We are now just hours away from the start of the 2015 First-Year Player Draft. It begins at 7 p.m. tonight and will be televised live on MLB Network.

For the second time in club history, the Arizona Diamondbacks have the first overall pick. They also selected first in 2005. The draft will span three days, as it has since 2009, and will last 40 rounds.

Tonight's picks go through the second round and Competitive Balance Round B that follows it. Selections come tomorrow in rounds three through 10 and Wednesday with rounds 11-40.

There are 10 teams, including the Orioles at No. 25 and 36, that have two picks in the first round. The others are Houston, Colorado, Atlanta, the New York Yankees, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Detroit and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The first round is followed by compensation picks and then Competitive Balance Round A running through the 42nd pick. The second round begins when Arizona makes the 43rd overall selection. The Orioles' second-round pick is No. 68.

orioles-dugout-sidebar.jpgSome say this is a poor draft compared to past years and features no marquee or elite talent at the top.

I had a chance to interview Jim Callis of MLBPipeline.com to get his take on this crop of talent and what we might see the Orioles do.

"You hear a lot of talk that this is bad draft," Callis said. "I do think there is talent in every draft. We'll look back five years from now and wonder how a certain guy lasted to the fifth or tenth round.

"I think why this draft gets criticized is the top of the draft is not overly impressive. There will be good players picked early, but you don't have that Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg or David Price. Several pitchers got hurt. Brady Aiken got hurt. Michael Mattuela, too, along with Nathan Kirby and Kolby Allard."

So how does it look for the Orioles with those first two picks in round one?

"If you're an Orioles fan you can make the case the guy you get at No. 25 is probably going to be as good as the guy at No. 15 and might be pretty close to the guy that will go No. 5. The wild card is where those four injured pitchers go. If they go early, they push more players down to the Orioles. I think maybe one goes before the Orioles," Callis said.

"You still want to pick at the top of the draft, but if there was a year to pick toward the middle of the draft instead of the top, this would probably be the year."

We've heard several players linked to the Orioles. Callis said when you get that deep into round one, it is just a real guessing game.

"You know even if the Orioles would tell you who they want, they don't know if he will be there. They don't know what the other 24 teams will do, so it's a dart throw projecting at 25.

"You do hear a lot of talk of college infielders for the Orioles perhaps at 25. (Shortstop) Richie Martin at Florida is more of a fielder than a hitter. (Shortstop) Kevin Newman from Arizona is more of a hitter. You hear those type of names a lot. One name I've heard a lot is Nathan Kirby from Virginia. But would the Orioles take a player that has been hurt for about six weeks?

"Another name that is interesting and he is moving up draft boards right now is Canadian first baseman Josh Naylor. It's not a classic athletic frame, but he has as much power as anyone in the draft. Canada's junior national team just played some teams in the Dominican and he hit five homers in 12 games. I think he will sneak in the first round and maybe he could go at 36."

Kirby, out of the University of Virginia, has missed time since April due to a lat strain. He is ranked as the draft's No. 26 prospect by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com. He went to James River High School near Richmond, Va.

A 21-year-old left-hander, Kirby throws a fastball that can touch 94 mph, but his control was shaky this year as he walked 30 in 59 1/3 innings. With an injury and a high walk rate, how is Kirby rated so highly?

"The team that takes him is rationalizing that his stuff being down earlier this year before he was sidelined in April was due to the lat strain," Callis said. "And that is not spin. Had he been healthy the stuff would have been better. Coming into the year, he was a lock to be in the top 10, maybe top five. If a team feels his injury was a bump in the road and is no long-term concern, you could steal a guy at 25."

Brady Aiken was the No. 1 pick in the draft last year by the Houston Astros. The two sides agreed on a $6.5 million bonus, but the team became concerned about his elbow following a post-draft physical and cut its offer to $5 million. Aiken turned it down, joining Danny Goodwin (1971) and Tim Belcher (1983) as the only No. 1 overall picks not to sign.

In March, Aiken had Tommy John surgery. He is rated No. 22 by Baseball America and No. 24 by MLBPipeline.com. After the surgery, is he likely to be drafted very high again? Could he possibly fall to the Orioles at No. 25?

"He could," Callis said. "Whoever is taking these (injured) guys is not going to tell anyone. It is probably going to be a team with multiple early picks. He is a total wild card. There were concerns last year. He wasn't hurt when the Astros took him first. I don't think anyone really knows the chances for him to get completely back to what he was. I don't think he is going in the top 10.

"Some fans write to me on Twitter and think he would be a steal for their team, but there is a lot of risk there. I've done two mock drafts and projected him going to the Dodgers at 24. They gamble as much as anybody."

The Orioles will make three selections tonight. This is quite a difference from last year when they were idle on day one and didn't make a selection until round three and pick No. 90. They selected high school left-hander Brian Gonzalez.

In the 2014 draft, the Orioles' first five picks in rounds three through seven were pitchers and they drafted pitchers with eight of their first 11 picks. In all they drafted 38 players last June, signed 30 and of that group there were 19 pitchers.

In the latest mock drafts with the O's 25th pick:

* Baseball America has the Orioles selecting Florida State outfielder D.J. Stewart. In 64 games this year, he has hit .318 with 15 homers and 59 RBIs. He is among the nation's walks leaders and has a .500 OBP. He was the ACC Player of the Year as a sophomore in 2014 with a slash line of .351/.472/.557.

* MLBPipeline.com has the O's selecting University of Florida shortstop Richie Martin. Noted more for his defense than offense, this year he has hit .291 with four homers and 32 RBIs. He did finish second in the Cape Cod League last summer, batting .364.

* ESPN.com projects the Orioles will take Arizona second baseman Scott Kingery. In 54 games, he has hit .392 with five homers and 36 RBIs. He is called an above-average defender with plus speed. Earlier mock drafts had the Orioles taking his teammate, shortstop Kevin Newman.




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