Irvin raised the bar this season, now seeks consistency in 2025

PLAYER REVIEW: JAKE IRVIN

Age on Opening Day 2025: 28

How acquired: Fourth round pick, 2018 MLB Draft

MLB service time: 1 years, 152 days

2024 salary: $745,600

Contract status: Under club control, likely arbitration-eligible in 2026, free agent in 2030

2024 stats: 10-14, 4.41 ERA, 33 G, 33 GS, 187.2 IP, 173 H, 97 R, 92 ER, 29 HR, 52 BB, 156 SO, 4 HBP, 1.199 WHIP, 91 ERA+, 4.41 FIP, 1.9 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR

Quotable: “From a personal standpoint, the second half was not what I expect from myself. It was disappointing, for sure. But there’s a lot to learn from, and a lot to build off of. Looking at the big picture, I’m definitely excited for the things I’ve learned, what I can build on, how I can get better learning from a lot of stuff this year.” – Jake Irvin

2024 analysis: An unexpected rookie contributor in 2023, Jake Irvin came to spring training this year assured of a spot in the Nationals’ Opening Day, though not a spot at the top of the rotation. His ceiling appeared to be as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, with back-end starter perhaps the most plausible outcome in the end. Then he started pitching like a legitimate frontline guy and raised the bar to a level most probably didn’t expect.

Irvin enjoyed a brilliant first half of the season. Over 18 starts, he delivered a sparkling 2.80 and 1.000 WHIP, proving to be a workhorse who averaged just shy of six innings per outing. He was consistent, with 12 quality starts in those 18 games. But he also was dominant on numerous occasions, with zero or one run allowed and eight or more strikeouts recorded with two or fewer walks issued three times in the first half, capped off with a brilliant July 4 showing against the Mets (eight scoreless innings of one-hit ball) that made the right-hander a legitimate All-Star candidate.

Irvin didn’t get the call for a midsummer trip to Texas, and whether that had anything to do with it or not, he immediately fell into a slump that lasted most of the season’s second half. Over his final 15 starts, he went 3-8 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.457 WHIP. His biggest issues during that stretch: Home runs surrendered (19 in 81 2/3 innings) and a tendency to let individual innings blow up on him.

In the end, Irvin undoubtedly was one of the brightest spots on the Nationals pitching staff, looking at times like a real revelation who could be a frontline starter. But that sustained slump during the second half put a real damper on his season as a whole and left his final numbers rather pedestrian.

2025 outlook: So who is the real Jake Irvin? Is he a No. 2 starter and workhorse who can churn out quality starts and approach 200 innings pitched? Or is he too inconsistent to reach that level and prone to those ugly innings that ruined too many of his starts? That will be the pertinent question he faces entering 2025.

At his best, Irvin showed he is a strike thrower. There were times he threw almost exclusively fastballs and had quite a bit of success doing it. Opponents hit just .204 and slugged just .281 off his four-seamer, which he overall threw 38 percent of the time. When he commands that pitch, he can keep throwing it and inducing quick outs, allowing him to go deep in games.

Irvin was far less successful with his sinker, which opponents hit to the tune of a .325 average and .497 slugging percentage. And though his curveball is his best put-away pitch, it also accounted for 10 of the 29 homers he surrendered this season. When he doesn’t have it, he’s in trouble.

The Nationals understandably should be high on Irvin entering next season, higher than they entered this season on him. But if he’s going to prove he’s got a higher ceiling than most assumed when he first arrived, he’s going to have to learn how to avoid those blowups and how to sustain success for six full months, not just three. If he can do that, the Nats will have a pretty potent 1-2 punch atop their rotation between Irvin and MacKenzie Gore.