A take on the outlook for undrafted players next month

Well, we know there will be 160 amateur players taken in the five rounds of the First-Year Player Draft that begins June 10. But what happens after that? What about undrafted players?

This year is going to be unlike any before it in the history of the draft. There were few, if any at all, top unsigned players after a 40-round draft that last year saw 1,217 players selected. There was no mad scramble for undrafted players after all those selections.

But this year the draft will include just 13 percent of the number of players taken in last year's. Some good talent, plenty of it, will still be available.

But this year teams can only acquire undrafted players for a max bonus of $20,000. By comparison, a player taken in the middle of the sixth round last year had a slot bonus amount of $281,880. That would be $222,200 for the middle of round seven, $176,300 for mid round eight, $155,300 in round nine and $145,700 for round 10.

Will a player that was likely to go in rounds six through 10 this year take the $20,000? Seems unlikely. But some analysts believe there are players that will sign for that amount to get their pro careers started and avoid a backlogged and more loaded draft in 2021.

When I interviewed Jim Callis of MLBPipeline.com recently we discussed how it could work out this year for undrafted players.

"I think an interesting question is how many sign for 20?" said Callis. "Last year there were about 395 players that got six-figure bonuses after the fifth round. Most of those in the 100- to 200-thousand range, and most of those players were college juniors.

"The sad thing for those players is they need that money, actually. These guys aren't going to go out and buy a car or house for their parents, which would be nice, or a bunch of fancy suits. They are using their six-figure bonuses to play off college loans. Most college players are not close to being on a full scholarship. As we both know, they don't pay minor leaguers anything. So, they are using that money to live off of. To try and eat healthy and to train. So that money is important.

"I've had agents tell me they don't think many guys will sign. I don't know, though. Not sure what percentage of those 395 will sign, but I do think some will. We may see 20 teams offering one player the $20,000. That could make for a mad scramble."

By the way, there is no limit to the number of players a team can sign for that $20,000 amount.

Here are some reasons an undrafted player may go with a specific team:

* Some may go to the best teams.

* Some may go to the worst teams, where they, theoretically, could get to the majors sooner.

* Some may choose teams that develop players the best.

* Some may go to a team because of a strong relationship with the club's area scout.

* Some may go to teams that do well with later-round talent.

* Some may go to teams they root for. Some players hope they get drafted by their hometown teams. Now they can make that choice.

Callis said he is confident that teams cannot and will not attempt to circumvent this system. They won't try to cheat.

"No, you can't," he said. "For one, you would lose the player and you'd get fined. You just can't draft a player and say in two years we'll rip up your minor league contract and give you $500,000. I don't think there is any way to get around it.

"If it came out, two things would happen. The team would lose the player and two, the people involved would get seriously suspended or fined. Nobody is going to do that."

The aspect of the undrafted players could be the most interesting thing about this upcoming draft. We could see players get offers from 20 teams or maybe even all 30? It will be almost like the player picking the team, essentially. If someone has talent and wants to sign for that amount, which team would turn him down over $20,000?