After 101 wins, expectations will be high for the 2024 Orioles

The 2021 Orioles went 52-110 and finished 48 games out of first place. In an American League East where fourth-place Toronto won 91 games that season, the Orioles were 39 games out of fourth place.

No one could forsee that team two years later would win the AL East. The Orioles went from 52 to 83 to 101 wins in two seasons. It was quite a run and rise to the top of the division. They won the division last year for the first time since the 2014 season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

The Orioles, coming off that many wins - the most in the AL and second-most in the majors - are now going to have to deal with higher expectations when a new season begins, from fans and media alike.

Heading into the 2023 season and coming off a 31-win improvement, some thought the club might regress a bit before moving forward again. On their way to 100 wins, some teams surge forward, hit a bump in the road and then resume winning again. The O’s hit no speed bumps in 2023.

They got off to a good start and were 19-9 at the end of April versus a somewhat soft schedule. As the opponents got tougher in May, the Orioles held their own, perhaps showing that their winning ways of April were legit. The Orioles entered July at 6 1/2 games back of Tampa Bay, which got off to an amazing start, winning each of their first 13 games. But by July 19 the Orioles were tied for first as Tampa Bay was losing night after night. No one saw that coming, but it did.

The Orioles won the AL East but then got swept three straight games by Texas in the AL Division Series. So what will fans expect from the 2024 Orioles? What if they fall short of the division title? Is just a wild card berth enough?

Some have speculated that changes to the playoff field since Major League Baseball went to a 12-team playoff, starting in 2022, put the Orioles at a disadvantage. The top two division winners get five days off before their first playoff game. And despite the teams’ best efforts to stay sharp during that layoff, in two years under this format, teams that won 100 or more games have gone 1-5 in the Division Series. 

During October 2022, the top seeds were Houston and the New York Yankees in the AL and Atlanta and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL. They went a combined 2-2 in the Division Series.

This year the top seeds were Baltimore, Houston, Atlanta and the Dodgers, and they went 1-3 in the Division Series.

The teams that played in the 2023 World Series won 90 (Texas) and 84 (Arizona) games during the regular season. Neither won their division. Texas was a No. 5 seed out of six AL teams, and Arizona was the NL’s No. 6 seed.

Yes, this is just one year and we have only two years of a sample size under the new playoff format, but maybe the Orioles don't need to win 100 games. Maybe a win total in the high 80s and making the playoffs will be sufficient, perhaps even preferable. Winning 84 was enough for Arizona last year.

So while expectations may be ratched up after a 101-win season, after a year when the Orioles pushed so hard to win the division, only to not win a single playoff game, maybe the goal is to just get into the dance and see what can happen. Winning the division is not required and winning 100 is not required.

An AL East championship was a great accomplishment for the Orioles. There was a time not long ago when most of their fans could not have imagined it happening. Again, they were 48 games out of first place in 2021. They have come a long, long way. But many will truly most remember how their season ends and and when it ends. And how far they get in the playoffs, not the number of regular-season wins.

It might change the game of expectations a bit when the 2024 season begins.