The question has been asked a lot this winter. Now we have finally reached the point where, in a few weeks, we may have the answer: How will the Orioles reduce six starting rotation candidates to five to begin the 2015 season?
If it were put to a fan vote, Ubaldo Jimenez would probably be the odd man out. Luckily for him, this is not up for a vote, and his performance on the field during spring training could enhance his position and remind the Orioles of the pitcher they hoped they were acquiring last February.
In the second half of the 2013 season, Jimenez went 6-5 with a 1.82 ERA and struck out 100 batters in 84 innings over 13 starts for the Indians. But in the first half of last year, he went 3-8 with an ERA of 4.52 and walked 60 over 99 2/3 innings for the Orioles.
Jimenez was never a pitcher with solid control. He walked 4.8 batters every nine innings in 2012 and 3.9 in 2013. But his mark of 5.5 per nine last year was the worst of his career.
It also led to him throwing more pitches per inning than any of the Orioles' six rotation candidates:
16.0 - Wei-Yin Chen
16.1 - Miguel Gonzalez
16.5 - Chris Tillman
16.6 - Bud Norris
17.2 - Kevin Gausman
18.4 - Ubaldo Jimenez
The Orioles signed him to a four-year deal worth $50 million and certainly were expecting better than a 6-9 record with a 4.81 ERA in 25 games.
Jimenez has posted an ERA of 4.68 or higher in three of the last four seasons:
2011 - 4.68
2012 - 5.40
2013 - 3.30
2014 - 4.81
Jimenez saw his WHIP increase from 1.33 in 2013 to 1.52 last year. His strikeouts dropped from 9.6 to 8.3 per nine innings. During 2013, Jimenez's 9.6 strikeouts per nine ranked seventh among MLB starters, ahead of pitchers such as Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw.
Here is another stat that is hard to understand: Jimenez was terrible in day games and good at night. He went 1-5 with an 8.82 ERA and .313 average against during day games. At night, he went 5-4 with a 3.40 ERA and .213 average against.
For his career, Jimenez has an ERA of 4.41 during the day and 3.80 at night.
So how will the O's trim six down to five? They can option four of their rotation candidates as Bud Norris, Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen and Kevin Gausman can all be optioned. Chris Tillman and Jimenez don't have options remaining.
One of the six could be moved to the bullpen, but the 'pen already looks pretty crowded and there are two Rule 5 candidates trying to make the club in the bullpen.
The O's pitching staff is pretty much set as we get closer to opening day. But they still have to figure out how to turn six starters into five.
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