Baseball Prospectus evaluator on Giolito: "Easily the best stuff I've seen this year"

Six innings, one hit, no runs, no walks and seven strikeouts on July 25. Six innings, two hits, no runs, one walk and six strikeouts on July 31. He is 7-2 and he has a 2.17 ERA. He has won five straight decisions. OK, this is serious now. The Nationals' top pitching prospect is rolling. Right-hander Lucas Giolito has his stuff, and one professional who watches him believes the 20-year-old's not even going max effort yet. Or maybe it's because all his stuff looks so effortless. This is Part 1 of my two-part series on the progress of Giolito. Today, we will focus on his fastball and curveball. Ryan Parker (Twitter: @RA_Parker), talent evaluator for Baseball Prospectus, attends what he says is "a ton of minor league games" each season. Parker says Giolito is the best pitching prospect he has seen pitch in 2014. "He compares extremely favorably," Parker told me this week. "The only pitcher I've seen this year who is even close to the same league would be (the Orioles') Hunter Harvey. Giolito, the stuff was better and he was a lot more relaxed and fluid. "(On Thursday,) he went I think six innings on about 70 pitches. He very easily could've gone a full game. But it's late in the season, so they have kind of tapered him out. "It's easily the best stuff I've seen this year even going back to spring training when I was seeing guys like (Julio) Urias with the Dodgers, (Braden) Shipley with the Diamondbacks. This stuff blows that stuff out of the water." Parker was on hand July 31 to see Giolito's most recent gem. He believes Giolito can pitch with higher velocity if he wants to, because he has shown it before. "If you hadn't seen him before, you would have been a little underwhelmed. The fastball was 91-94 mph," Parker said. "He wasn't pumping it up to 98 mph and blowing it by guys." Parker says because Giolito is 6-foot-6 and 230 lbs., his imposing figure is a lot for a batter to have to battle when he steps to the plate. "He was out there about 6-foot-6," Parker said. "When he releases the ball, its about 50 feet from home plate. The ball just jumps right on hitters. He makes 92 mph look like 98 mph. "So you can only imagine when he finally does decide to pump it up, it's going to get extreme. The breaking ball is absolutely nuts. His pitchers on his own team were bragging about it before the game. Watching his warmups, you can tell then that it's something incredibly special." Parker said the low-90s fastball is effective because of the release and extension Giolito can muster when he comes to the plate. "It's special. It's unique," Parker said. "Being 6-foot-6 helps. But some guys even with that height aren't able to get the kind of extension he does. When his foot lands and his arm comes around, he's really reaching out toward home plate. He's cutting down the distance. Even though he's coming from way up top and that can sometimes hurt guys and their releases, he gets past that issue with incredible extension. "(On Thursday,) he's facing these low-A hitters, he can still blow 91, 92 mph by them like it's nothing. In there first at-bats, they are extremely uncomfortable against him. They are having trouble picking up the ball out of his hand. The release and extension make it a special pitch. When you combine that it's coming from about seven feet up in the air and it's boring in on their hands, that's one of the best fastballs I've seen. "He's got extremely long arms and very broad shoulders. When you think of pitching, you want that arm to pretty much act like a whip or a catapult. Having that extra length does nothing but help him. He's able to get those extra couple of inches with the fastball. He's got huge hands and huge fingers - even that helped him get a little bit extra plane and little bit extra movement on the ball." And when you think you can somehow get used to the fastball once or twice, then Giolito unleashes his high-velocity curveball with a ridiculous drop as it crosses home plate. "It's a true 12-to-6 curveball," Parker said. "Because everything he throws is harder than most minor leaguers, about four or five mph quicker than a typical breaking ball. Usually when a guy is throwing a 12-to-6 curve it's the mid- to high-70s mph. His (start on Thursday) was about 80 to 82 mph. Other scouts have said he can get the curveball up to 84, 85 mph. It breaks like most guys' 70 mph offerings but it's coming in there 12 to 15 mph quicker. "There are sometimes early in counts when he'll kind of wrist it. He just kind of dumps it into the strike zone. And then there are other times where you can see the wrist snap and he just buries it. "The best way you can describe is a space movie and all of sudden gravity comes back and everything just falls down. That's how his breaking ball looks. It looks like it's going to be a hanger and its in the dirt or at the knees. Incredible." So "The Matrix" then? "Pretty much, his curveball is the 'Matrix,' " Parker said. "That's pretty much the best way to put it." With all of Giolito's Hollywood connections, I'm sure he wouldn't mind a photo-op with Keanu Reeves and Laurence Fishburne. Coming up in Part 2: One opinion on why the Nationals are limiting Giolito's innings and bringing him along slowly as he works his way up the system.