Can O's Dean Kremer hit a higher gear in 2025?

When the Orioles begin the 2025 season, there is a pretty good chance right-hander Dean Kremer will be in their rotation. As he has been for the last few seasons.

Kremer posted an ERA of 3.23, a career best, in 21 starts in 2022. But he had a 4.12 ERA the next season, and last season it was 4.10.

That ERA was essentially league average: an ERA+ of 99 in 2023 and his ERA+ was 92 last year. His career mark is 4.28, so the O’s appreciate Kremer’s efforts, of course, but must wonder if he can find a higher gear.

Kremer, who turns 29 on Jan. 7, has just over three years of service time and is arbitration-eligible for the first time. He could get around $3.5 million via arbitration, per MLBTradeRumors.com. He cannot be a free agent until after the 2027 season.

In 2023, Kremer made 32 starts and the O’s had an outstanding 24-8 record in those games. They went 10-14 in his 24 starts this past season.

Kremer took a no-hitter into the seventh inning on Sept. 6 against Tampa Bay, the longest he's taken one in his career. Junior Caminero broke it up with single leading off the inning. He was one of two Orioles to take a no-hitter into the seventh inning, the other being Kyle Bradish on May 26 at the Chicago White Sox (7.0 IP).

Kremer spent several weeks on the injured list from May 24 through July 3 with a right triceps strain. It cost him six or seven starts and he finished at 129 2/3 innings after throwing 172 2/3 in 2023.

Kremer did have a strong finish to his season, pitching to a 2.98 ERA in his last eight starts, starting Aug. 14. In his last four starts, he went 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 24 innings.

He was quite effective early on in his games, pitching to a 2.75 ERA over the first three innings of his starts. He did that by allowing an OPS of just .503 the first time through an opponent's batting order. That went up to .769 the second time through and .794 the third time.

Kremer scored well last season in average exit velocity against, ranking in the 84th percentile there and the 76th in hard-hit percentage. But strangely enough, he was in the bottom 13 percent in barrel percentage. I guess showing he didn't get hit hard that often, but when he did it was a big exit velocity.

He used his four-seam fastball 32 percent in 2024, with an average speed of 93.4 mph. He threw his cutter 23 percent, split-finger 18 percent, two-seam fastball 15 percent and his curveball 12 percent.

Opponents slugged .503 off Kremer's fastball, a key area he must try to improve this season. But batters slugged .355 or less on all his other pitches.

Can Kremer can take a nice step forward in 2025? How does he fit in the Baltimore rotation?