Checking on O's home homer totals before and after moving the wall (O's add Morton)

In this space yesterday I noted that Ryan Mountcastle would be expected to hit more home runs in 2025 as the Orioles are moving the left field fence closer to home plate at Camden Yards. This is after three years after they had moved the wall back nearly 30 feet from its original position.

Mountcastle hit 22 home runs in Baltimore during the 2021 season, the last one with the previous dimensions. He averaged a homer at Camden Yards every 12.77 at-bats that year. But then he hit just 28 total home homers from 2022 through 2024, hitting one every 24.86 at-bats.

I wondered how the entire team was impacted by the year-to-year home homer numbers.

Here are the stats on that from 2021 on:

Actually, the O’s got closer to their 2021 home stats each year, almost equaling them last season when the team hit 235 homers for the season, second-most in the major leagues to the Yankees' 237.

Orioles at home, 2021: 122 homers, .443 slug, ,760 OPS, one HR every 22.0 at-bats.

Orioles at home, 2022: 79 homers, .382 slug, .690 OPS, one HR every 33.7 at-bats.

Orioles at home, 2023: 86 homers, .411 slug, .726 OPS, one HR every 30.4 at-bats.

Orioles at home, 2024: 112 homers, .431 slug, .746 OPS, one HR every 24.1 at-bats.

Orioles at home, combined seasons from 2022-2024: 589 homers, .416 slug, .729 OPS and one HR every 28.00 at-bats.

The 2021 O’s ranked second in the American League in home home runs and so did the power-laden 2024 team.

According to Baseball Savant, the Orioles lost 72 homers to the wall starting in 2022, including 31 that year, 20 in 2023 and 21 last year.

Mountcastle suffered most, losing 11 homers to the deeper wall while Austin Hays missed out on eight. Three players lost seven home runs each: Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman and Jorge Mateo.

Beyond how this second wall shift could help right-handed power bats, both O’s skipper Brandon Hyde and hitting coach Cody Asche have reminded us this winter that it could also benefit lefty batters with pop, such as Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser.

Of course, while the Orioles lost some homers to that deeper wall, so did their opponents, which was the whole point. The club hoped that the ballpark would play more neutrally for all hitters. But three seasons later the front office felt they had “overreacted” in making the first move.

The Orioles already have a pretty good lineup, and last year did well in terms of runs scored and homers. That should continue next season in a ballpark where offense should tick up with the closer wall.

O's add right-hander: The O's last night announced the signing of pitcher Charlie Morton. Various reports indicated it was a one-year deal for $15 million.

Where Morton slots in is an open question, but for now the right-hander adds to the rotation depth, and there is still plenty of time for another addition.

I see him as an innings-eater in the No. 4 or No. 5 role. Even now at 41, Morton has thrown 30 or more starts for four consecutive years and six times in the last seven years, missing only in 2020 because the season was shortened to 60 games in the wake of the COVID pandemic.

His ERA was 3.64 in 2023 and 4.19 in 2024, and he made 30 starts each year. His total of 328 2/3 innings since 2023 is more than any O's pitcher threw in those years. Dean Kremer led the club over those seasons with 302 1/3 innings. Also, Morton's 24 quality starts since 2023 are more than any Oriole had in that same span.

His ERA since 2023 is 3.92, which would trail Kyle Bradish (2.81) and Tyler Wells (3.90) but rank ahead of Kremer and Grayson Rodriguez, both at 4.11.

With the Braves since 2021, Morton went a combined 45-34 with a 3.87 ERA in 686 1/3 innings in those four years. His 138 career wins are tied for seventh among active pitchers.