Comparing the O's before and after the last 30 games (plus notes on Eflin and Etzel)

This stat has been pointed out a few times, but even in going 12-18 the last 30 games, the Orioles gained ground on the Yankees. Yes, that is crazy.

On June 20, before the last 30 games, the Orioles were 49-25 (.662) yet a 1/2 game out of first place. Since June 21, even in losing 18 of 30, the O's still lead the American League East by one game after their loss yesterday and the Yankees' 10-inning victory last night.

The games, beyond the stats, tell us that the Yankees have played poor ball for a long time too. But the Orioles' play has fallen. here is a statistical look:

Here are some O's team stats through June 20 and where they ranked in the major leagues:

* 5.27 runs per game (1)
* OPS of .769 (2)
* Slugging .456 (1)
* Home runs per game 1.61 (1)
* Team ERA 3.13 (tied for 1st)
* OPS against .632 (1)
* 0.83 HRs allowed per nine innings (2)

Here are some O's team stats since June 21 and where they rank in the majors:

* 4.13 runs per game (22)
* OPS of .750 (9)
* Slugging .436 (7)
* HRs/game 1.47 (5)
* Team ERA 5.37 (28)
* OPS against .794 (27)
* 1.54 HRs allowed per 9 innings (27)

So the Orioles went from first to 22nd in runs per game while some other offensive stats were not bad during this span. But in team ERA they fell from first to 28th, and they fell off big in other pitching numbers. 

Eflin's top-notch control: In getting right-handed starter Zach Eflin via trade, the Orioles are getting a pitcher they could slot in third in a playoff series behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.

Eflin went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA last season when he finished sixth in the Cy Young voting. This season, over 19 starts with the Tampa Bay Rays, he is 5-7 with a 4.09 ERA.

He has incredible control and his average of 1.06 walks per every nine innings ranks second in the majors to Seattle’s George Kirby at 0.96.

Prior to walking four batters in his July 19 start at Yankee Stadium (two starts ago), Eflin had walked two batters or fewer in 51 straight starts dating to June 14, 2022. Of the 51 starts, 48 came with the Rays, the longest streak in franchise history. And it is the eighth-longest such streak by a starter since 1901.

This year from April 26 to June 16, he did not issue a walk to 165 consecutive batters spanning 39 1/3 innings. Both streaks are the longest in Tampa Bay franchise history.

The 39 1/3 innings walk-less streak was the longest in the majors since the Giants’ Ross Stripling (42.0 innings pitched) from July 2–Aug. 16, 2023, per Elias Sports Bureau.

Since both streaks concluded, Eflin has issued a walk in each of his last six starts, his longest streak since May 25–June 23, 2023 (six starts). He has not walked a batter in seven straight starts since a career-high-tying 10-start stretch from Sept. 11, 2019–Aug. 23, 2020.

In his 19 starts this season, Eflin has walked no batters in 10 games and walked one or none in 17 of the 19 starts.

“The two-seam command, the way he can command the ball to both sides of the plate, really tough,” said O’s manager Brandon Hyde. “Our hitters were excited because he’s such a tough at-bat. The heartbeat is super low on the mound. He’s pitched in huge spots at huge times in big games. That experience is going to be really valuable for us.”

And the O’s will have him through 2025 as he has one more year of team control. That is big for the Orioles.

“For sure, especially since the injuries we’ve had and guys gonna miss next year. You know, to have a really good major league starter locked up for next year too, that’s great,” added Hyde.

The interview I didn’t quite get to: A couple of weeks ago I interviewed some players at Double-A Bowie and wrote about Samuel Basallo ahead of the Futures Game and also wrote about outfielder Dylan Beavers.

One of the players I interviewed on that trip, but had not written about yet, just got traded. He was Bowie outfielder Matthew Etzel, the club’s 10^th-round pick last year out of Southern Miss. He was having a decent year, which started for him at High-A Aberdeen. He moved to Bowie on June 11.

Etzel was dealt for Eflin along with Aberdeen pitcher Jackson Baumeister and Aberdeen infielder/outfielder Mac Horvath.

In 83 games between the IronBirds and Baysox, Etzel hit .289/.363/.445/.808 with 15 doubles, seven triples, six homers and 47 RBIs. He also stole a whopping 41 bases in 52 tries.

Etzel, 22, told me that the origins for his good season go back to his winter work at Dynamic Sports Training in Houston. He said he got in great shape working out with other pro players including Corey Julks, Nathan Eovaldi and Connor Wong.

“I like how much preparation I put in during the offseason,” he told me at Prince George’s Stadium. “It’s been going well in my first full season. Didn’t really know what to expect. A lot of games but it’s been going great, body feels great and it’s been awesome.

“One of the things I improved was my speed in the first 10 yards, which has helped me steal a lot of bases. Those guys helped me add some muscle and weight. Been feeling good.”

Etzel had an .857 OPS in 51 games with Aberdeen and .729 in 32 games with Bowie.

He told me he loved working with the coaches on the O’s farm.

“There are always there if you need anything," he said. "It’s our career. But they obviously want to help as much as they can and they’ve given me so much great input that I’ve taken to improve my game. Such a good development system. We have the No. 1 farm and why wouldn’t you want to work with them?”

Since the trade, MLBPipeline ranked Baumeister No. 13 among the Rays' top 30. He was No. 17 with Baltimore. Horvath, No. 10 with the O's, is No. 18 with Tampa Bay. Etzel was not in the O's top 30 and is ranked No. 27 on the Rays' list. 

Click here to see Baumeister's twitter goodbye to the O's fans and organization yesterday.